UNLV vs Boise State: 2025 Mountain West Championship Prediction
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Let’s just say the way the 2025 Mountain West Championship got here was … interesting.
San Diego State dominated Boise State and was the best team in the conference for most of the season. It’s not here, and neither is the New Mexico team that won the head-to-head battle last week in a double-overtime thriller, and won at UNLV a few weeks ago.
But some computer formula found a way to get the Rebels in this, even though it was 0-2 in the four-team battle for spots, and …
Boise State blew away UNLV back in mid-October, but that was with Maddux Madsen at quarterback. He got hurt, and the team hasn’t been the same since, but like New Mexico, it had two wins among the four teams considered.
Now it has a chance to win a third straight Mountain West title over the Rebels, and take its fifth conference championship game.
UNLV is looking for its second conference title ever, only winning the 1994 Big West.
UNLV vs Boise State Mountain West Championship Preview & Prediction
How To Watch UNLV at Boise State
Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
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Why UNLV Will Win
Again, this isn’t the same Boise State team that won 56-31 in the first meeting in the middle of the season.
That was a nip-and-tuck battle until Maddux Madsen caught fire, throwing four touchdown passes as the Broncos took over the game. He hurt his leg, Max Cutforth took over, and the team went 2-2 to close, doing nothing against Fresno State or San Diego State before beating Colorado State and Utah State.
The Broncos don’t have the firepower to keep up if UNLV’s offense gets going.
The Rebels might not have the stingiest defense around, but the team manufactures points in a variety of ways. It comes up with takeaways, big things on special teams, and the running game has been on fire over the last month. But …
Why Boise State Will Win
Seriously, how in the world is UNLV here?
It didn’t beat ANYONE in the Mountain West. It fumbled away the loss to New Mexico, and again, got hit by Boise State for 56.
It beat, what, Hawaii? Utah State?
Those are the only two Mountain West wins over teams on the way to a bowl game, and both games were at home.
Yeah, the Rebel offense has been a blast, but the defense that got hammered on by Boise State for nine yards per carry and over five yards per game is about to have a tough day.
Again, the Broncos aren’t the same without Madsen, but that’s where the ground game comes in. They’re 5-0 this season when running for more than 165 yards, 8-1 – the only loss at San Diego State – when running for 130 yards or more, and …
UNLV at Boise State Prediction, Betting Lines
UNLV allowed 130 rushing yards or more to everyone but Colorado State, Wyoming, and Hawaii, and those three weren’t exactly ground-and-pound.
For all of the dogging here, UNLV really is good. Its offense is amazing, it’ll give the Broncos everything they can handle, and …
It’s Boise State at home, in Boise, outside, in 35 degrees and rain … in a Mountain West Championship.
Boise State 34, UNLV 26
Line: Boise State -4.5, o/u: 58.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 3.5
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: North Texas vs Tulane: 2025 American Championship Prediction
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 4, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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