Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after first loss

Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after first loss

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Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after first loss

There appears to be a good amount of doom and gloom surrounding Penn State's football program after letting a win slip away over the weekend, resulting in a gut-wrenching loss to Wisconsin in Week 4. The loss was unsettling for many, but how much weight does it truly have on the outcome for the remainder of the season? The damage may not be as bad as you might think.

ESPN has updated its Football Power Index models, and that has led to updated win percentages for each game left in the 2026 regular season. The good news is Penn State is still the favorite in every remaining game on the schedule, except for one. If those numbers are accurate, then Penn State could be looking at a 10-2 regular season, which would be enough to at least pose a question about the College Football Playoff, potentially.

Despite being the favorite in the majority of the remaining games, the win percentages did trend down this week with the latest updates. That was to be expected, of course, after taking a loss. That trend begins with this week's game at Northwestern. This game in particular took the steepest decline by going down about 14 percentage points and is close to being considered a toss-up. Northwestern's performance in a losing effort against Indiana helped move the needle a bit as well.

The one game where Penn State is no longer considered the favorite according to the win prediction percentages from ESPN is the road game against Michigan. The game was a 50/50 split with last week's numbers but now has swung a few points in Michigan's favor. Penn State's win percentage for the Michigan game is down to 47.2%.

Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game remaining in the 2026 regular season entering Week 5.

Week 5 at Northwestern

Nov 22, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The Northwestern Wildcats celebrate after their victory against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

  • Friday, Oct. 2
  • Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
  • ESPN FPI: 55.9% (was 69.2%)

Week 6 vs. USC

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; USC Football head coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Oct. 10
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 65.3% (was 70.4%)

Week 7 at Michigan

Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman R Mason Thomas (32) chases after Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Michigan Wolverines at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Oklahoma won 24-13.

  • Saturday, Oct. 17
  • Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
  • ESPN FPI: 47.2% (was 50.0%)

Week 9 vs. Purdue

Sep 20, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Purdue mascot Purdue Pete cheers against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Oct. 31
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 93.1% (was 93.9%)

Week 10 at Washington

The Washington Huskies take the field prior to the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Sept. 27, 2025.

  • Saturday, Nov. 7
  • Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
  • ESPN FPI: 70.5% (was 73.2%)

Week 11 vs. Minnesota

Iowa football travels to Minneapolis for an Oct. 24 game against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were 8-5 last season.

  • Saturday, Nov. 14
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 88.6% (was 92.2%)

Week 12 vs. Rutgers

Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights mascot Sir Henry during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Nov. 21
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 93.3% (was 96.0%)

Week 13 at Maryland

Dec 30, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; The Maryland Terrapins mascot Testudo dances before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

  • Saturday, Nov. 28
  • SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
  • ESPN FPI: 87.1% (was 79.1%)

Kevin McGuire is the lead writer for Nittany Lions Wire, part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow him on BlueSky, Threads or any of these other platforms.

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This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after first loss

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