Updated matchup predictor has Oklahoma back in CFP hunt

Updated matchup predictor has Oklahoma back in CFP hunt

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Updated matchup predictor has Oklahoma back in CFP hunt

The Oklahoma Sooners resurrected their season with their 27-24 win over the Texas Longhorns. They still have a lot of work to do, but they still have a shot at the College Football Playoff.

The Sooners have seven games remaining, starting with an upstart Kentucky team under new head coach Will Stein. They've earned wins over Texas A&M and LSU this season and sit at 4-1. Oklahoma can't take them lightly, much like many teams on the rest of the schedule. The Sooners can win every game, but if they don't play well, they can lose any of them.

But the Sooners are in a position where they control their own destiny. Win out, and they'll be in the College Football Playoff. Get into the playoff, and you have a chance to compete for a national title. With the way the season started, that's all anyone can ask for at this point: a chance.

Each week, we look at how ESPN's matchup predictor projects each game on the Oklahoma Sooners' schedule. Coming out of the Sooners' win over Texas, Oklahoma has a chance to turn the season around.

Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare over the remainder of the 2026 season.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Oklahoma's John Mateer (10) hands the ball off to Lloyd Avant (9) in the second half of the college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the UTEP Miners at the Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Sept. 4, 2026.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0

Record: 1-0

Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines

Sep 12, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive line Jayden Jackson (65) tackles Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during the fourth quarter at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: L, 17-10

Record: 1-1

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Sep 19, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Adepoju Adebawore (34) reacts during the first quarter against the New Mexico Lobos at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: W, 14-6

Record: 2-1

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Sep 26, 2026; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) throws a pass against Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) during the first half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Georgia

Result: L, 41-13

Projected running record: 2-2, 0-1 SEC

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Predicted Winner: Texas

Result: W, 27-24

Record: 3-2, 1-1 SEC

Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Kenny Minchey (3) throws the ball during the Kentucky Football spring game on April 18, 2026; Lexington, KY, USA; at Kroger Field.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 67.8% (Up from 66.6%)

Projected running record: 4-2

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 13, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Emeka Iloh (84) and head coach Jeff Lebby react during the second half against the Alcorn State Braves at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 51.8% (Up from 47.6%)

Projected running record: 5-2

Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Oct 18, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Tory Blaylock (6) rushes against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 67.3% (Down from 70.7%)

Projected running record: 6-2

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Jan 8, 2008; Miami, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow (15) throws a pass to wide receiver Louis Murphy (front) for a touchdown during the second quarter of the 2009 BCS Championship Game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Dolphin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Florida

Sooners Win Probability: 49.3% (Up from 36.8%)

Projected running record: 6-3

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) runs for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Ole Miss Rebels at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. Ole Miss won 34-26.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 55.5% (Down from 58.2%)

Projected running record: 7-3

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Nov 11, 2005; Norman, OK USA; Oklahoma Sooners safety (1) Reggie Smith reacts after making a play the during the 1st quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Copyright (c) 2005 Tim Heitman

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 60.9% (Up from 48.2%)

Projected running record: 8-3

Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers

Nov 22, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kendal Daniels (5) reacts during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Missouri

Sooners Win Probability: 43.3% (Up from 40.8%)

Projected running record: 8-4

One Win Can Change Everything

After the Georgia loss and coming out of the bye week, the Oklahoma Sooners were projected to go 5-7 on the year and miss bowl eligibility. That would be a devastating season after preseason expectations were so high. After beating No. 1 Texas, the Sooners gained a lot more credibility. However, at 8-4, they'd still miss the College Football Playoff.

None of the games on the Sooners' schedule will be easy. But all of them will be winnable. Especially if the offense can build on their performance against Texas.

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X (formerly known as Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions.You can also follow John on X @john9williams.

This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Updated matchup predictor has Oklahoma back in CFP hunt

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