Updated Oklahoma game-by-game projections from ESPN Matchup Predictor

Updated Oklahoma game-by-game projections from ESPN Matchup Predictor

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Updated Oklahoma game-by-game projections from ESPN Matchup Predictor

The Oklahoma Sooners opened the 2026 season with a businesslike 51-0 win over the UTEP Miners in the Oklahoma heat on Friday night. The Sooners jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and cruised to the lopsided Week 1 win.

The first-team offense was efficient and moved the ball well throughout the game, scoring on eight straight drives with John Mateer at quarterback. The running game looked the part, especially with Lloyd Avant in the game as the Sooners racked up 170 rushing yards against the Miners.

But the competition level jumps dramatically when the Sooners go on the road to face the Michigan Wolverines in Week 2. From Sept. 12 until their SEC home opener against Kentucky on Oct. 17, the Sooners will play just one home game, Sept. 19 against New Mexico.

Each week, the ESPN Matchup Predictor updates their win probabilities for each team in college football. After Oklahoma's win over UTEP, how has their season changed according to the computers?

Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare in 2026.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Oklahoma's John Mateer (10) hands the ball off to Lloyd Avant (9) in the second half of the college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the UTEP Miners at the Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Sept. 4, 2026.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma – 99%

Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0

Projected running record: 1-0

Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines

Sep 6, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Owen Heinecke (38) applies pressure on Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during the second half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 64.4% (Up from 47.8%)

Projected running record: 2-0

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) looks to make a pass in the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Gaylord Family OK Memorial Stadium.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: (Down from 94.9%)

Projected running record: 3-0

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Jan 1, 2018; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass against the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2018 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Georgia

Sooners Win Probability: 26.1% (Up from 23%)

Projected running record: 3-1

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) drops back to pass during the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Texas (UT) Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. Oklahoma won 34-30.

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 24.4% (No Change)

Projected running record: 3-2

Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Kenny Minchey (3) throws the ball during the Kentucky Football spring game on April 18, 2026; Lexington, KY, USA; at Kroger Field.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 86.7% (Up from 86.3%)

Projected running record: 4-2

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 13, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Emeka Iloh (84) and head coach Jeff Lebby react during the second half against the Alcorn State Braves at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 73.4% (Down from 80.2%)

Projected running record: 5-2

Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Oct 18, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Tory Blaylock (6) rushes against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 68.4% (Down from 75.1%)

Projected running record: 6-2

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Jan 8, 2008; Miami, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow (15) throws a pass to wide receiver Louis Murphy (front) for a touchdown during the second quarter of the 2009 BCS Championship Game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Dolphin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 53.1% (Down from 54.6%)

Projected running record: 7-2

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) runs for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Ole Miss Rebels at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. Ole Miss won 34-26.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 67.7% (Up from 62.3%)

Projected running record: 8-2

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Nov 11, 2005; Norman, OK USA; Oklahoma Sooners safety (1) Reggie Smith reacts after making a play the during the 1st quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Copyright (c) 2005 Tim Heitman

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 50.4% (Up from 49.9%)

Projected running record: 9-2

Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers

Nov 22, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kendal Daniels (5) reacts during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 69.9% (Up from 60.3%)

Projected running record: 10-2

Sooners Make College Football Playoff?

In the preseason, the ESPN Matchup Predictor had the Oklahoma Sooners going 8-4 and missing the College Football Playoff. Since then, games against Michigan and Texas A&M (although just slightly) have flipped in Oklahoma's favor.

OU looked good in Week 1, especially on the offensive side of the ball. And that's the area that has been the biggest question mark this offseason. Now, they'll have to prove it against tougher competition, in particular in Week 2 against Michigan, but if Oklahoma can get out of Ann Arbor with a win, it sets up to be a special season for the Sooners.

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X (formerly known as Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions.You can also follow John on X @john9williams.

This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Updated Oklahoma game-by-game projections from ESPN Matchup Predictor

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