Updated Oklahoma record prediction from ESPN matchup predictor

Updated Oklahoma record prediction from ESPN matchup predictor

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Updated Oklahoma record prediction from ESPN matchup predictor

The Oklahoma Sooners are 2-2 on the season and 0-1 in SEC play. They're coming off a blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. Up next for the Sooners are the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in the Red River Showdown in Dallas, Texas.

Last season, the unranked Texas Longhorns beat the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners 23-6. John Mateer had just returned from thumb surgery after missing the game against Kent State. The Sooners are hoping to return the favor by handing the Longhorns an upset loss.

Each week, we take a look at how the ESPN matchup predictor projects each game on the Oklahoma Sooners schedule. Coming out of the bye week, things aren't looking too hot for the Sooners.

Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare in 2026.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Oklahoma's John Mateer (10) hands the ball off to Lloyd Avant (9) in the second half of the college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the UTEP Miners at the Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Sept. 4, 2026.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0

Record: 1-0

Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines

Sep 12, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive line Jayden Jackson (65) tackles Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during the fourth quarter at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: L, 17-10

Record: 1-1

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Sep 19, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Adepoju Adebawore (34) reacts during the first quarter against the New Mexico Lobos at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: W, 14-6

Record: 2-1

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Sep 26, 2026; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) throws a pass against Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) during the first half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Georgia

Result: L, 41-13

Projected running record: 2-2

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) drops back to pass during the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Texas (UT) Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. Oklahoma won 34-30.

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 14.9% (Down from 19.9%)

Projected running record: 2-3

Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Kenny Minchey (3) throws the ball during the Kentucky Football spring game on April 18, 2026; Lexington, KY, USA; at Kroger Field.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 66.6% (Down from 70%)

Projected running record: 3-3

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 13, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Emeka Iloh (84) and head coach Jeff Lebby react during the second half against the Alcorn State Braves at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Mississippi State

Sooners Win Probability: 47.6% (Up from 41.5%)

Projected running record: 3-4

Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Oct 18, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Tory Blaylock (6) rushes against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 70.7% (Up from 70%)

Projected running record: 4-4

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Jan 8, 2008; Miami, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow (15) throws a pass to wide receiver Louis Murphy (front) for a touchdown during the second quarter of the 2009 BCS Championship Game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Dolphin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Florida

Sooners Win Probability: 36.8% (Up from 26.8%)

Projected running record: 4-5

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) runs for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Ole Miss Rebels at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. Ole Miss won 34-26.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 58.2% (Up from 55.5%)

Projected running record: 5-5

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Nov 11, 2005; Norman, OK USA; Oklahoma Sooners safety (1) Reggie Smith reacts after making a play the during the 1st quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Copyright (c) 2005 Tim Heitman

Predicted Winner: Texas A&M

Sooners Win Probability: 48.2% (Down from 52.9%)

Projected running record: 5-6

Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers

Nov 22, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kendal Daniels (5) reacts during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Missouri

Sooners Win Probability: 40.8% (Down from 56.3%)

Projected running record: 5-7

Losing Season Incoming?

The Oklahoma Sooners offense hasn't given analysts or computers much confidence. The Sooners' defense has a chance to keep them in any of their remaining games. But Oklahoma needs the offense to pull their own weight. The Sooners are averaging 12.3 points per game over their last three games against Michigan, New Mexico, and Georgia.

The Sooners have to come out of the bye week with a much more productive offense against Texas if they want to have a shot at winning enough games to reach bowl eligibility.

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X (formerly known as Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions.You can also follow John on X @john9williams.

This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Updated Oklahoma record prediction from ESPN matchup predictor

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