USC vs Penn State Prediction: Can the Nittany Lions Avoid Another Collapse
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Penn State was 3-0 last season with what appeared to be one of the best teams in the nation. A tough loss to Oregon was okay, but the wheels came off with six straight defeats, leading to an overhaul of the program.
There’s no need to fully panic quite yet, but after collapsing against Wisconsin in a 24-20 loss, and being run over by Northwestern by 21, this is a must-win moment with a trip to Michigan up next.
USC got over its loss to Oregon with a great win over Washington, but there’s a problem. If a road date at Penn State is your easiest game in the next month …
USC vs Penn State: Quick Hits
- USC is starting a run of three road games in four, getting a week off before going to Wisconsin. Then it hosts Ohio State and then goes to Indiana.
- Penn State alternates road and home games until mid-November, going to Michigan next before getting a week off to get ready for Purdue.
- Penn State won 33-30 in the last meeting in 2024. USC won the two meetings before that in the 2009 and 2017 Rose Bowls.
How To Watch USC vs Penn State
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
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Why USC Will Win
USC has a running game, and it has to get it moving in this against a Penn State defensive front that was ripped to shreds by Northwestern.
Temple was able to run for over five yards per carry in its 27-9 loss to Penn State, and Wisconsin managed to average just over four yards per pop in its win. And then Northwestern and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly found something that worked, running the ball 55 times for 413 yards and four touchdowns.
USC will try to win with the short passing game – Northwestern’s Aidan Chiles completed 71% of his passes last week – but if it commits to the run with well over 30 carries, it’ll work.
Why Penn State Will Win
USC doesn’t generate enough pressure from its defensive front, and that gives mobile quarterbacks plenty of chances to hit the midrange passes on the move. Penn State’s Rocco Becht might not be devastating when he runs, but the offense is deadly when he’s connecting.
Defensively, chalk up the Northwestern game to a bad day. The Nittany Lion defense is great on third downs, and it’s third in the nation in pass defense. However …
USC vs Penn State Prediction, Betting Lines
Penn State hasn’t seen a passing game like USC’s.
The Trojan defense is shaky, and it has to prove it can hold up on the road after having issues against Rutgers a few weeks ago, but Jayden Maiava and the Trojan passing attack will be strong throughout. But USC won’t run well enough.
Embarrassed by the Northwestern game, Penn State comes out roaring and holds up through a fun four-quarter fight.
Penn State 28, USC 24
Latest Consensus Line: Penn State -1.5, o/u: 54.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 2
Must See Rating (out of 5): 4
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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