USC vs Penn State Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

After two-straight losses, Penn State (3-2) opens as a short home favorite against #19 USC (5-1). Penn State is having its annual White Out night and as someone who attended the game last year versus Oregon, I'm expecting a great game once again. USC is fresh off a 25-21 win versus Washington, which came down to the wire whereas Penn State was manhandled by Northwestern, 34-13.

Penn State lost to Wisconsin (24-20) and Northwestern (34-13) allowing the most points of the season back-to-back weeks. Rocco Becht also threw interceptions back-to-back weeks and his first multi-interception game at Northwestern. The Nittany Lions are in danger of falling to .500 on the season and have a road trip to Michigan following USC. Matt Campbell is straying to feel the heat and will rely on his defense to dig him out of this hole. PFF ranks Penn State's defense sixth in the country overall, but they've given up 861 yards in the last two games. Penn State has forced four turnovers in that span but turned the ball over four times as well. Turnovers could be the storyline of the 2026 White Out.

USC bounced back after the loss to Oregon with a close four-point win over Washington. The Huskies converted two fourth downs on their final drive before failing on 4th and 10 with a shot to the end zone. The Trojans defense had its best defensive effort against a P4 opponent this team with 198 yards allowed to Washington 's quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and held the Huskies to a 1-of-12 mark on third downs. Jayden Maiava had the fewest yards (245) and touchdowns (1) on the season versus Washington. Maiava was only sacked once, but you better believe Penn State will be bringing the pressure at home.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch USC vs Penn State

• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
• Site: Beaver Stadium
• City: University Park, PA
• TV/Streaming: Peacock | NBC

Game Odds for Penn State vs USC

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: USC Trojans (+102), Penn State Nittany Lions (-122)
• Spread: Penn State -1.5 (-105)
• Total: 54.5 points

#19 USC Trojans

Head Coach: Lane Kiffin
2026 Record: 5-1 (2-1)
Offensive Points Per Game: 37.3 (29th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 25.5 (89th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 66th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 1st

The USC Trojans Offense:

USC is starting to have a problem with starting slow. USC scored three first quarter points over the last two games and 20 first half points. The Trojans

USC Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jayden Maiava

Jayden Maiava is coming off a season-low 245 passing yards and one touchdown. The Trojans quarterback went 21-of-34 (61.8%) and tossed an interception, his third in four games and second in as many weeks. USC managed 360 yards of offense and started the game with three punts, one interception, a touchdown, and field goal over six first-half drives.

The USC Trojans Defense:

USC held Demond Williams Jr. to a season-low 198 passing yards and the Huskies got the go-ahead touchdown via a 48-yard Jahkeem Stewart scoop and score off a Williams fumble. USC allowed 3.5 yards per carry and limited Washington to a 1-of-12 mark on third downs! Despite the effort, USC ranks 49th in third down defense (34.8%) and 115th in defensive passing efficiency. USC did grab five sacks and six TFL, which is a positive sign headed to Happy Valley.

USC Player to Watch on Defense: LB Desman Stephens II

Desman Stephens II makes his return after a one-game suspension for his hit on Oregon's quarterback Dante Moore. In the game prior to Oregon, Stephens recorded a season-high seven tackles against Rutgers, plus a half-sack and pass deflection, both his firsts of the season. Expect Stephens to try and make up for lost time at Penn State.

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Penn State Nittany Lions

Head Coach: Matt Campbell
2026 Record: 3-2 (0-2)
Offensive Points Per Game: 32.0 (T-62nd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 16.0 (T-24th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 60th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 67th

The Penn State Nittany Lions Offense:

Penn State's offense had to abandon the run game as they fell behind at Northwestern, 31-7 (24-7 at half). The Nittany Lions averaged 2.2 yards per carry and finished with a season-low 48 rushing yards. The Nittany Lions opened the game with punts on five of their first six drives and Rocco Becht had his first multi-interception game of the season tossing two picks in the fourth quarter. Penn State also had a season-low 23:55 time of possession. Fortunately, USC has a softer defender than Wisconsin and Northwestern, so better days should be ahead for Penn State's offense.

Penn State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Rocco Becht

Rocco Becht had his first multi-interception game of the season at Northwestern. Becht finished with a season-high 26 completions and 41 pass attempts as Penn State fell into a negative game script early. The Nittany Lions dropped two-straight and Becht has one touchdown pass to three interceptions. Penn State ranks 54th in offensive passing efficiency and 70th in passing success. Becht had 16 total rushing touchdowns in 2024 and 2025, but has one through five games with Penn State. It's safe to say the expectations of Becht's lone season at Penn State aren't going well.

The Penn State Nittany Lions Defense:

The Penn State defense allowed a season-high 34 points at Northwestern after giving up a season-high 24 to Wisconsin. Now, PSU goes up against USC. With chink in their armor, Penn State's defense will be up against a dynamic Trojans offense and may allow another season-high. The Wildcats posted 506 total yards of offense with 413 of that coming on the ground! Penn State couldn't stop a nose bleed last week, but maybe the historic "white out" night will help.

Penn State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Tony Rojas

Tony Rojas recorded a season-high 12 tackles at Northwestern, 3.5 tackles for a loss, plus a sack and pass deflection. Rojas leads Penn State with 34 tackles, 3.0 sacks, and two interceptions through five games. He's going for three-straight weeks with a sack and third-straight with at least two TFL. If there's a game changing play for the Penn State defense this weekend, Rojas will likely be in the middle of it.

USC and Penn State Stats, Betting Trends

• USC is 1-5 ATS and 4-2 to the Over
• Penn State is 2-3 ATS and 3-2 to the Over
• USC is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 to the Over on the road
• Penn State is 2-1 ATS at home and 2-1 to the Over
• The Trojans have gone
• The Nittany Lions have gone
• USC was 5-8 ATS last season
• USC was 1-4 ATS on the road
• Penn State was 5-8 ATS last season and 8-5 to the Over
• Penn State won 33-30 in OT of the last meeting in 2024
• These teams have met four times since 2000 and USC won three times

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Nittany Lions to lead at the half and win the game:

"USC has started slow this season and a road trip across the country probably won't solve that. USC's only time going East was at Rutgers and while the Trojans put up 42 points, they also. allowed 37. Penn State is off two-straight losses and are throwing a Hail Mary with the White Out night. I went to the last white out night against Oregon and it was epic. I'd expect this one to be the same and Matt Campbell won't want to lose his first white out night. I expect Penn State to go all out here. Early leans toward the full game ML and first half ML. Penn State's Team Total might be worth a look too."

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