USC's crucial 2026 offseason could be defined by 2025 Iowa game

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College sports have changed a lot in the past half decade, but ultimately, college football is still about winning, at USC football, Iowa, and everywhere else.

Sure, players are prioritizing themselves and their own career at the collegiate level after all the NIL and transfer portal rule changes. But I promise you that 9 out of 10 players or more would give up significant NIL earnings and hurt their NFL draft standing by a few rounds to win a College Football Playoff national championship.

At USC, winning championships is of even more importance than many other schools because of the championship standard that was set by past generations.

Players come to USC for the NIL opportunities and the developmental opportunities, but most of all, they come to win. And the national championship trophies in Heritage Hall make them believe they can do it.

USC is still in contention for a College Football Playoff national championship for the 2025 season in mid-November, which is really exciting. But in 2026, they are set to receive a major talent upgrade with the No. 1 recruiting class in the entire country coming to town. It's not an insult to this season to say that on paper, they have a better chance of winning the CFP in 2026 than they do in 2025.

But the freshman can't do it on their own. USC needs to retain key veteran players on their current roster if they want to regain blue blood status under Lincoln Riley like so many fans have held out hope that they will.

Let's break down why — and how — they must do that.

USC's 2025 roster built on the backs of veteran players

At this point in the season, USC has only 3 transfers and one freshman starting. Every other starter is a returning player.

The fact that the program has taken a step forward in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024 with less roster turnover is no coincidence. Keeping the foundation of your team set on guys who know the program and culture and have the experience to perform consistently brings huge benefits to any football team.

USC needs to start mostly veteran players again next season, provided that they earn a starting role.

Some key players to retain

Every starter on USC's offensive line except center J'Onre Reed is elligible to return in 2026. The offensive line has been one of USC's most consistent position units and a huge key to their ability to have more success in Big Ten play.

Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi lane could both go to the NFL, so USC needs to prevent any surprise transfers at the wide receiver position. Tanook Hines, Jaden Richardson and Zacharyus Williams in particular need to stay.

Walker Lyons could be tempted to join his brother Ryder at BYU, a team that is still in contention for the College Football Playoff as well. USC needs to convince him that he has a better chance to compete for a national title at USC.

At the quarterback position, USC needs either Jayden Maiava or Husan Longstreet next season. No one would blame Maiava for departing for the NFL draft after the season he has had, but if that happens, USC needs to do everything they can to keep Longstreet.

USC has a lot of young talent on the defensive line as well, and Desman Stephens, Marcelles Williams and a few other key players in the secondary need to stick around as USC has to endure the loss of DeCarlos Nicholson and Eric Gentry after the season.

USC also needs transfers

USC brought in 2 players in the transfer portal who are absolute superstars: Bishop Fitzgerald and Waymond Jordan. They have 2-3 other guys who are decent role players. Other than that, this transfer portal class has been largely a failure so far and Lincoln RIley's worst transfer class since he came to USC.

Given that USC is focusing a lot more on homegrown players and recruiting, that's not all bad news. But they need to hit the portal a little harder at a few key positions to round out the roster before the 2026 season.

Those positions are cornerback, wide receiver, punter and likely safety as well.

How does USC retain current stars and attract new ones via the portal?

Winning. It's a bit more complicated than that, but even the best players are almost always willing to sacrifice personal career ambition to win a championship.

In short, USC needs to appear like a team that can compete for a national championship with just a few key additions. They can't be 3-4 steps away, they need to be 1-2 steps away.

Essentially, if they don't make the College Football Playoff this year, they need to be as close as possible.

Beating Iowa is the key

Beating Iowa won't hand deliver USC a championship roster next season all by itself. But boy oh boy would it help.

I am fairly confident USC will handle UCLA decisively in their season finale. That leaves two games I am currently worried about: Iowa and Oregon.

I don't think many USC fans would be surprised, or all that devastated, if the Trojans lost to Oregon in Eugene next weekend. Of course we want the Trojans to win, and I even believe they have a good chance of beating Oregon.

But if they lose, especially after beating Iowa, few people are going to be totally devastated unless it's a blowout. That means USC likely finishes the season 9-3 and in fourth place in the Big Ten.

That likely won't mean a playoff appearance, but it would place the Trojans in a good bowl game and squarely on the doorstep of the CFP, one win away from having made a playoff appearance.

That sends a message to current players, recruits and transfer portal pieces: join us and make the CFP. All we need to do next season is knock off one giant (Notre Dame or Oregon this year, could also include Ohio State/Indiana next year) or take care of our one misstep (Illinois this year) and we will be a playoff team. 2 losses in the Big Ten more than likely gets you into the CFP.

If USC beats Iowa, they likely finish the season on the doorstep of the playoff at worst. If they lose to Iowa, at home…they still have a ways to go, and with the schedule getting harder next season, players may have a hard time being patient.

This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: USC football 2026 roster decisions could be affected by Iowa result

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