UVA positioned for playoff game at Ole Miss; JMU cracks CFP rankings

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Less than a week before Selection Sunday, Virginia is positioned for a first-round College Football Playoff matchup at Ole Miss, the sport’s undisputed drama king.

Moreover, James Madison’s only path to the playoff is clear. JMU must defeat visiting Troy in Friday’s Sun Belt Conference championship game and then hope Duke upsets Virginia in Saturday’s ACC title contest in Charlotte.

Those were the primary takeaways for state teams Tuesday night from the CFP’s penultimate rankings.

UVA’s move from No. 18 to 17 is irrelevant to its potential seed in the 12-team playoff bracket. If the Cavaliers defeat Duke on Saturday — they smoked the Blue Devils 34-17 on the road last month — they will be the fourth highest-ranked conference champion and therefore assured of their first CFP bid.

That would slot them into the No. 11 seed, ahead of only the winner of Friday’s American Conference championship game between No. 20 Tulane and No. 24 North Texas. As the No. 11 seed, Virginia would play at the No. 6 seed, presently Ole Miss.

The Rebels are idle this weekend, and the only ways their seed might change is if No. 4 Texas Tech loses to Brigham Young in the Big 12 title contest and drops at least two spots in the playoff rankings, or if No. 9 Alabama defeats No. 3 Georgia in the SEC championship game and leapfrogs Ole Miss.

Either or both of those outcomes could land Virginia at Texas Tech or Oregon.

For weeks, Ole Miss and its erstwhile coach, Lane Kiffin, have been college football’s obsession as Kiffin, the embodiment of diva, weighed whether to remain in Oxford or relocate to an SEC rival, LSU or Florida. Kiffin on Sunday finally elected LSU, after which Ole Miss immediately promoted defensive coordinator Pete Golding to head coach, not as an interim but as Kiffin’s contracted successor.

So the opening round, set for Dec. 19 and 20, will mark not only the Rebels’ inaugural playoff appearance, but also Golding’s head-coaching debut.

While Ole Miss (11-1) is assured of making the field, Virginia (10-2) must defeat Duke (7-5). A Blue Devils win would open the door for a second Group of Five conference champion, namely the Sun Belt’s JMU.

David Teel: Historic beatdown of Virginia Tech sends UVA to ACC title game

For each of the past four weeks, JMU has been the top Group of Five team in the media and coaches polls. The committee isn’t quite there, but Tuesday night the Dukes cracked the CFP’s rankings for the first time at No. 25.

Playoff resistance to JMU hinged on schedule strength, but the objections seemed strident.

Three weeks ago, for example, five of the six teams ranked from 20-25 by the CFP lost: Louisville, Iowa, Pitt, South Florida and Cincinnati. Still, no JMU.

Two weeks ago, Nos. 21-23 — Illinois, Missouri and Houston — stumbled. Still, no JMU.

Last weekend’s results created the void JMU needed as Nos. 19-23 — Tennessee, Arizona State, SMU, Pitt and Georgia Tech — fell. Meanwhile, JMU was waxing Coastal Carolina on the road 59-10, its 10th consecutive victory since a September setback at Louisville.

Victories by JMU on Friday and Duke on Saturday would leave the selection committee with a choice for the field’s fifth conference champion: the 12-1 Dukes or 8-5 Blue Devils.

With Duke unranked in every top-25 human poll and behind JMU in every computer rating, that decision appears clear, impressive as an upset of Virginia might be.

The bad news for JMU on Tuesday was North Texas landing at No. 24. That leaves no opportunity for the Dukes to leapfrog the Tulane-North Texas winner and make the field if Virginia wins the ACC to secure a bid.

David Teel, david.teel@virginiamedia.com

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