Virginia vs SMU Prediction, Odds, Picks, Start Time — 10/17

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The Virginia Cavaliers take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW.

SMU is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 52.5 points.

Here’s my Virginia vs. SMU prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17.

My SMU vs. Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Virginia vs SMU Odds, Betting Line, Point Spread

• Virginia vs SMU point spread: Virginia +9, SMU -9
• Virginia vs SMU over/under: 51.5 Points
• Virginia vs SMU moneyline: Virginia ML +280, SMU ML -350

Tony Elliott and Virginia have certainly been a little difficult to figure out through the first half of the season, but at 4-2 overall, the Cavaliers still have plenty to play for as they head to Dallas.

Last week’s 28-25 comeback win over Syracuse wasn’t perfect, but Virginia erased a 10-point second-half deficit and found a way to win. That’s the type of result that should give this group some confidence heading into one of its tougher remaining road tests of the season.

Virginia has been inconsistent, highlighted by ugly losses to West Virginia and Florida State, but when the Hoos are at their best, SMU is a team they can absolutely hang with.

A big reason for that upside is QB Beau Pribula. The former Penn State signal-caller has thrown for 1,080 yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception, and he can also make plays with his legs.

The running game should have some success in this matchup.

Jekail Middlebrook leads the team with 337 yards while averaging five yards per carry, and Virginia ranks 57th nationally in Rush Success Rate. That’s notable against an SMU defense sitting just 93rd in Rush Success Rate allowed.

Pass protection remains a concern; Virginia has somehow already surrendered 20 sacks this season. The Mustangs rank fifth nationally in defensive havoc, so keeping Pribula upright will be key.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t mind the matchup for the Hoos.

SMU has one of the country’s best passing attacks, but the Cavaliers rank 23rd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and give up only 161.8 passing yards per game.

Virginia has also intercepted seven passes this season, and Kevin Jennings can certainly be loose with the ball at times.

Rhett Lashlee has built SMU into a legitimate ACC contender over the last handful of years, and the Mustangs enter this matchup 4-1 and ranked No. 24.

They’ve also been extremely difficult to beat at home since joining the ACC, and the fanbase is flat-out rejuvenated.

Offensively, things revolve around veteran Jennings, who’s putting up some pretty ridiculous numbers through five games.

Jennings has completed 75% of his passes for 1,588 yards and 14 touchdowns, and SMU ranks eighth nationally in Pass Success Rate.

It’s totally fair, however, to note the quality of pass defenses those numbers have come against.

This will be a step up in weight class on the field because of the aforementioned quality of the Virginia secondary.

I expect Virginia to take away the big play and force Jennings to methodically beat it. He hasn’t always had the discipline to take the check-down throw throughout his career, so that will be a big thing to watch on Saturday.

SMU’s running game hasn’t been nearly as impressive. Kendrick Raphael has rushed for 418 yards and six touchdowns, but SMU ranks only 81st nationally in Rush Success Rate.

Defensively, the numbers are pretty solid, particularly on the havoc side, but I would say Louisville is the only high-quality offense the Ponies have faced thus far.

In that game, the Cardinals put up 442 total yards, including 265 on the ground, and got what they wanted.

I don’t necessarily expect Virginia to match that output, but there should be plenty of avenues for Pribula and company to move the ball.

SMU is probably the better football team, but this number is too big in my opinion.

I always feel more comfortable backing a road underdog that has a quarterback I can trust, and I put Beau Pribula in that mold.

The Mustangs will score their fair share of points, but I think the Cavalier offense has the playmakers to go blow for blow with them and keep this game tight all the way through the fourth quarter.

Give me Virginia to hang tough in Dallas and secure the cover, in a game I foresee being a one-possession contest throughout.

Pick: Virginia +9.5

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