We get first look at CFP bracket today. Here's how I think it'll look when it counts
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We’ve reached griping season. Prepare your grievances to debate which two- or three-loss teams most deserve the opportunity to lose in the College Football Playoff.
Here’s my fresh playoff projection, in advance of the first rankings. Note: This reflects how I think the bracket will look like come selection Sunday.
1. Ohio State
Two Buckeyes, quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, are having seasons that could send them to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. That’s not to mention the other star wideout, Carnell Tate, or the Buckeyes’ stingy defense. Ohio State keeps smashing its way through a comfy schedule. Keep this up, we’ll be using the word dynasty by the end of the season.
2. Alabama
Fortunately for Alabama, the season did not end in August. The loss to Florida State remains a strange aberration. Unlike last year’s Tide, this group shows comfort winning one-score battles that unfold each week inside the SEC. Ty Simpson solved Jalen Milroe’s turnover problem. Alabama’s absent run game remains the missing ingredient in an otherwise improving team.
3. Indiana
For all the conversation surrounding the Hoosiers’ playoff bid last year, I think they were exactly what the committee said they were: a 10-seed. This team is better. It makes a habit of dining at the 50-burger cafe when facing teams from the Big Ten’s secondary and tertiary tiers. At this rate, the Big Ten Championship will determine the No. 1 seed, with a possible rematch in the national championship.
4. Texas A&M
Every team paying big bucks to fire its coach hopes for the type of turnaround the Aggies enjoyed after swallowing a $77 million buyout to boot Jimbo Fisher. Mike Elko’s been a revelation to a program finally playing up to its resources. If there’s lingering concern about the Aggies, it’s this: Their defense is middling, and the SEC schedule has been fairly accommodating so far. They needed theatrics and officiating help to beat Notre Dame.
5. Georgia
These Bulldogs won’t be remembered as Kirby Smart’s best team. They might go down as his most resilient. Georgia routinely spots opponents a first-half lead before rallying. The weekly tightrope act will catch up to Georgia eventually, but it enters the stretch run in great shape for a playoff bid, even if its loss to Alabama keeps it out of the SEC Championship.
6. Mississippi
Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia sucks up the oxygen in the lovable underdog lane. That overshadows the remarkable story of the Rebels’ Trinidad Chambliss. In a year’s time, he went from Division II champion to Ole Miss backup to breakout star. His exploits have Ole Miss fans flying Trinidad and Tobago flags, even though Chambliss is from Michigan. It’s the spirit of the thing, you know? The Rebels are comfortable winning one-possession games.
7. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders’ only loss came without injured starting quarterback Behren Morton, who’s back in the lineup. Pair his return with Texas Tech’s league-best defense, and it’s the Big 12 frontrunner, even if Brigham Young sits atop the standings. Texas Tech will host the Cougars this weekend in a clash it can’t afford to lose. The Red Raiders haven’t lost while playing Morton. This is a playoff team when he’s in the lineup.
8. Oregon
The Big Ten likely will qualify at least three teams. Only Ohio State and Indiana are locks. The one-loss Ducks lack a marquee victory, leaving them potentially vulnerable if they lose again. Landmines remain against Iowa, Southern California and Washington. Still, I trust Oregon most from the Big Ten’s second tier, courtesy of its defense. If the Ducks lose at Iowa this weekend, I might sing a different tune.
9. Louisville
Inside the messy ACC, I most believe in Louisville’s defense that intercepted Carson Beck four times earlier this season. SMU also toppled Miami. Louisville’s Nov. 22 game at SMU could decide a spot for the ACC championship. Louisville coach Jeff Brohm ought to be in the candidate pool for any SEC school hiring. In an unpredictable ACC race, give me the team with the best defense and the best coach. I think that’s Louisville.
10. Notre Dame
When the Irish roll into selection Sunday boasting a 10-game win streak, that’ll weigh more heavily on the committee than the fact they started 0-2. Anyway, the committee can tamp down those two losses by virtue of them coming by a total of four points. CJ Carr could go down as Notre Dame’s best quarterback since … well, since a long time ago.
11. BYU
BYU joins Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M as the nation’s only undefeated teams. That affords some cushion. The Big 12 is a salty league. Perfection should not be required for CFP qualification. BYU lost its incumbent starting quarterback in the summer but got better. Hello, Bear Bachmeier. The freshman is just what the Cougars needed to pair with one of the Big 12’s top defenses.
12. South Florida
The Bulls have two losses. Only one is within conference play. That leaves a path to the American Championship inside a competitive, messy league with no undefeated teams. USF blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in a loss to Memphis that stripped the Bulls’ cushion. They can play their way back, if their defense regains its form from wins against Boise State and Florida.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: In CFP bracket prediction, Notre Dame makes cut, Miami and Texas don’t
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