Week 11 college football picks, predictions: Is it time to invest in Texas A&M? What about Texas?

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The Power Rank member college football model comes from my background (Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford) and uses play-by-play and market data to make spread predictions. In addition to the model, I research subjective factors the model doesn’t consider to make long-term profitable bets.

This week, I’ll also use these numbers in the Unabated college football futures simulator to find additional value. Here are five of my best predictions for Week 11 in college football.

No. 3 Texas A&M (-7, 48.5) at No. 22 Missouri

Mike Elko’s Texas A&M team has surged in his second year. Heisman candidate QB Marcel Reed leads an offense ranked second in my adjusted yards per play.

Texas A&M lost top running back Le’Veon Moss a few weeks ago against Florida. However, Reuben Owens II has been more efficient at 5.6 yards per carry.

The Texas A&M defense has taken a huge leap, as it ranks 11th in my adjusted yards per play compared to 19th last season. Elko comes from a defensive background, and players like edge Cashius Howell have stepped up with 10 sacks already this season.

Texas A&M faces a Missouri offense that lost QB Beau Pribula in its last game against Vanderbilt. True freshman Matt Zollers came in and threw for 5.46 yards per pass attempt (6.40 college football average). Missouri will look to RB Ahmad Hardy to break explosive plays.

My member predictions at The Power Rank have Texas A&M by 4.4 points on the road, but it should be more due to the injury to Pribula. There is a better way to bet on Texas A&M.

Bet: Pass

Texas A&M comes into the weekend with an 8-0 record on the strength of its balance on offense and defense. In my member college football rankings, this makes the Aggies the top team in the SEC.

Their biggest challenger is an Alabama team that's 5-0 in conference. Alabama started the season with a loss at Florida State, but that game seems like more of an outlier every week.

My numbers don’t like Alabama as much as Texas A&M. Despite the supposed Heisman candidacy of QB Ty Simpson, Alabama's offense only ranks 32nd in my adjusted YPP. Alabama has been plus-9 in turnovers, and late takeaways helped seal one-score wins over Missouri and South Carolina.

If these two teams were to meet in the SEC championship game, I’d make Texas A&M -3.5 at a neutral site. Using my best college football numbers and the simulator at Unabated, Texas A&M has a 41% chance to win the SEC, higher than the 25% chance for Alabama.

Bet: Texas A&M +210 to win the SEC

Texas scored a huge win this past week over Vanderbilt. Despite concerns over a concussion, QB Arch Manning played brilliantly and threw for 9.92 yards per pass attempt. With an elite defense to complement a resurgence on offense, it’s time to start thinking about the playoff for Texas, right?

Not so fast. With two losses, Texas ranks 11th in the first CFP rankings, which is not high enough to make the field of 12. They can’t afford another loss, and The Power Rank would make Texas a sizable underdog in two upcoming games:

  • Texas +7.5 at Georgia

  • Texas +6.5 against Texas A&M

Using the Unabated simulator with my numbers, I get an 87.2% chance that Texas doesn’t make the playoff compared to this 67.7% break-even probability.

Bet: Texas -210 to not make the playoff

No. 2 Indiana (-14.5, 49.5) at Penn State

According to the experts, Penn State was a top team for prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft this preseason. The elite players on defense probably had an additional edge, as Penn State brought in highly regarded defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who had just won a national title with Ohio State. Knowles had these players to work with:

  • CB AJ Harris, considered a first-round pick this preseason.

  • Edge Dani Dennis-Sutton, only two sacks this season.

  • DT Zane Durant, undersized but considered a second-to-third-round pick.

Given the talent and coaching acumen, the defense has been a disaster, ranking 59th in my adjusted YPP. After getting battered by Ohio State last week, it now faces Indiana and QB Fernando Mendoza, who is projected to be the top pick in the NFL Draft.

Is this the week that all this talent shows up? I doubt it. My numbers have Indiana by 10.3 points on the road, but it should be more as Penn State QB Ethan Grunkemeyer has been a downgrade from Drew Allar.

Bet: Pass

No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech (-10, 52.5)

BYU and Texas Tech meet in a pivotal Big 12 game. BYU comes into this contest at 8-0 but are not as good as its record.

Despite wins over Utah and Iowa State in its last two games, BYU had fewer total yards and less YPP in each contest. BYU took advantage of a plus-6 turnover margin in those games, including a pick-six against Iowa State.

Texas Tech has one blemish in a loss against Arizona State. However, the Red Raiders didn’t have QB Behren Morton, while Arizona State still had QB Sam Leavitt before he went down with a season-ending injury.

Texas Tech has excelled on defense, ranking fourth in my adjusted YPP. An infusion of NIL money in the offseason brought in difference-makers like edge David Bailey (12 sacks) and CB Brice Pollack.

Morton has missed parts of multiple games, so Texas Tech should be rated even higher. My prediction has Texas Tech by 7.5 points, but I still expect BYU to challenge in this game.

Bet: Lean BYU +10

Ed Feng runs The Power Rank, a football analytics and betting site.

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