Week 12 College Football Best Bets: Jake Butt's Top Picks for Minnesota vs Oregon & More

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College football expert Jake Butt returns for Week 12 with value you can use right now.

In his conversation with Covers’ Joe Osborne, he digs into his best NCAAF picks, explains why the Buckeyes are built for January, and reveals precisely how Alabama will shut down Oklahoma.

Minnesota vs Oregon best bet

Pick: Minnesota +26.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Oregon is a potential playoff team saddled with a demanding schedule and key injuries. That's the recipe for bloat in a massive spread. Jake is taking Minnesota +26.5, a position that leans into situational football: attrition narrows gaps, and heavy favorites can shift into clock-drain mode once they're in command. Big numbers become even bigger when the healthier, motivated dog can simplify the game.

"It's the context here that really matters," Jake explains. "Minnesota is coming off a bye week and will be fresh and healthy. And on the flip side, Oregon had to travel to Iowa and it was a late, physical, rainy game. I do not expect to see Oregon play their most dominant game required to cover a four touchdown spread."

In fact, Jake thinks the Ducks will take their foot off the gas and slide into neutral.

"I could see Oregon head coach Dan Lanning saying, 'Let's just get in, win this game, and get out,'" he says.

The playoff race continues to tighten

The most transformative force in this year's college football landscape is the expanded 12-team playoff. It's fundamentally changed the mid-November calculus: teams with a blemish or two still have an attainable path, and the weekly rankings feel more like seeding conversations than elimination hearings. Jake embraces the chaos not as dilution but as drama.

"I think the benefit of this 12-team playoff is there's 20 teams right now significantly in the hunt that can make a push," he says. "To me, that's exciting."

In practice, that inclusivity tightens the margins on resume-building. Rankings volatility is being driven as much by line-of-scrimmage consistency and organizational health as by explosive offenses. Teams with trench depth and coherent defensive identities are quietly vaulting, while one-dimensional groups are getting exposed in November.

The ripple effect is clear: every series, every substitution, and every late-game decision is now viewed through a playoff seeding lens, not just a poll position argument.

Ohio State is even better than last year

The biggest swing in the national picture might be Ohio State's evolution under Matt Patricia. Jake makes a controversial but compelling case: this version is sturdier front-to-back than last year's champions. The offense isn't a blur, but the defense is structurally sound and opportunistic, and the program's identity is now defined by control of tempo, field position, and situational leverage. The ceiling remains to be tested, but the floor has undoubtedly risen.

"Now, I definitely believe that this team is better," he proclaims. "Now, whether or not they win at all remains to be seen."

Tempo is the quiet lever of this team's transformation. By shrinking possessions and leaning on a top-end defense, Ohio State is protecting its roster from the cumulative nicks and soft-tissue issues that snowball late in the year. It's a strategy as much about January as it is about November. Every deliberate snap buffers health and sharpens execution, while opponents are running hotter just to keep up.

"Just by slowing the game down, they're building in the equivalent of an additional bye week to the season, which means they're healthy, which means they're fresh," he explains. "I can't say the same about a number of these other college football contenders."

Trench consistency is key in Oklahoma vs Alabama

Another inflection point arrives in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama meets Oklahoma in what Jake frames as a revenge game. Beyond narrative, he leans Alabama for a more tangible reason: line-of-scrimmage control.

In matchups with comparable quarterback play, trench consistency decides everything from third-and-medium to red-zone sequencing. If Alabama starts winning both A-gaps, the scoreboard tends to follow.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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