Week 13 college football picks, predictions: Is No. 7 Oregon undervalued?
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The Power Rank member college football model comes from my background (Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford) and uses play-by-play and market data to make spread predictions.
Since the start of the 2023 season through Week 12, the predictions are 52.4% against the opening market (848-770 with 26 pushes in games in which the prediction differs from the market by a point or more). Since I started posting them in Week 4, the totals predictions are 52.2% against the closing market (198-181 with 5 pushes).
In addition to the model, I research subjective factors the model doesn’t consider to make long-term profitable bets.
Let’s look at five predictions for Week 13 of the college football season.
No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (-9.5, 59.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Oregon 38, USC 25.6
Oregon is in a competition with No. 9 Notre Dame as the most underrated team in the playoff committee rankings. Oregon has a loss to No. 2 Indiana and almost slipped up at Iowa. Otherwise, the Ducks have mostly dominated inferior Big Ten competition, the mark of a great team. Oregon is third in my member rankings.
USC has the typical signature of a Lincoln Riley team: potent offense with a dud of a defense. The offense ranks second in my yards per play (YPP) adjusted for opposing defense with my algorithms at The Power Rank. QB Jayden Maiava has been great, but he does face an elite Oregon pass defense (third in my adjusted yards per pass attempt). The strength of this pass defense is surprising given the complete turnover in the secondary from last season.
Despite not playing the past two games, freshman WR Dakorien Moore still leads Oregon in targets and has a solid 2.43 yards per route run. Even if he can’t play, Oregon’s offense should be able to run the ball. USC’s defense ranks 80th in my adjusted yards per carry.
My model predicts a total of 63.6 points in this game. However, I like the spread more than the over because of Oregon’s pass defense. My model has Oregon by 12.4 points at home, and I expect the market to return north of the key number of 10.
Bet: Oregon -9.5
Arkansas at No. 17 Texas (-9.5, 57.4)
The Power Rank prediction: Texas 33.4, Arkansas 25.6
Arch Manning really did have a nice game against Vanderbilt (328 passing yards in 33 attempts, 3 touchdowns). With higher expectations, he regressed against Georgia (251 passing yards in 43 attempts), and the questions about his play have started all over again.
As I noted last week, Vanderbilt doesn’t have the strongest pass defense (77th in success rate, 87th in yards per pass attempt in my adjusted numbers). Manning now faces an Arkansas pass defense with a similar profile (57th in success rate, 83rd in yards per pass attempt), which opens the window for improvement.
While Manning has disappointed, he’s not the only reason Texas has regressed this season. Steve Sarkisian’s program has had 12 and 11 players drafted the past two years, with multiple first-round picks in each draft. This Texas team has a trio of players — LB Anthony Hill Jr., CB Malik Muhammad, OT Trevor Goosby — projected as second-round picks at best.
It seems odd to bet on a 2-8 team in Arkansas. However, this team has an astounding 0-6 record in one-score games, losing to probable playoff teams Texas A&M and Ole Miss by a total of nine points.
QB Taylen Green leads an explosive offense ranked third in my adjusted yards per play. Arkansas should be able to score points even against a good Texas defense, and my model has Texas by 7.8 points.
Bet: Arkansas +9.5
No. 11 BYU (-2.5, 54.5) at Cincinnati
The Power Rank prediction: BYU 29.1, Cincinnati 27.1
With two more conference wins, BYU earns the right to get pummeled by Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. The more difficult game at Cincinnati comes first before a home game against UCF.
BYU got back on track last week with a convincing 44-13 win over TCU. In the preceding three games, BYU had fewer total yards and yards per play than their opponents yet went 2-1.
Cincinnati has lost two straight to Arizona and Utah after a 5-0 start in conference. However, the offense has the potential for big plays, especially in the run game. RB Tawee Walker has rushed for 6.1 yards per carry, and Cincinnati might get RB Evan Pryor back (7.2 yards per carry). BYU is weaker against the run than pass (76th in my adjusted yards per carry).
My model has BYU by 2 and a total of 56.2 points.
Bet: Lean over 54.5
Pittsburgh at No. 16 Georgia Tech (-2.5, 61.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Georgia Tech 32.1, Pittsburgh 28.2
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King has been fantastic this season with both his arms and legs. He leads an offense ranked fifth in my adjusted success rate and 17th by my adjusted YPP.
However, it also helps to have a defense, and Georgia Tech has failed on that side of the ball (95th in adjusted YPP). In its only loss, this unit allowed 48 points to North Carolina State, by far the highest total by the Wolfpack against an FBS opponent this season.
A Pittsburgh loss to Notre Dame last weekend wasn’t surprising, but coach Pat Narduzzi’s comments before the game were. As pointed out by professional bettor Eddie Walls, Narduzzi said the Notre Dame game wasn’t important because of the two conference games to follow. Injuries limited CB Cruce Brookins and edge Blaine Spires to nine snaps when these two regulars maybe could have played more.
My numbers have Georgia Tech by 3.9 points. However, a solid Pittsburgh defense (20th in YPP) with the return of a few regulars will keep me off Georgia Tech -2.5.
Bet: Pass
Rutgers at No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5, 54.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Ohio State 44, Rutgers 15.3
Ohio State continues to snooze to the end of the season, as only two Big Ten opponents have gotten with 18 points of beating the Buckeyes. A seven-point win over Texas looks better and better for the SEC every week.
It’s hard to pick holes in Ohio State. Can the Buckeyes run the ball? They rank 51st in my adjusted yards per carry, but they are probably better than that. Freshman RB Bo Jackson has gotten the most carries in each of the past four games and has gained 6.6 yards per carry.
It is not the week to go against Ohio State with an awful Rutgers team, even if my model only has Ohio State by 28.7 points. Maybe it’s more interesting that my model has Ohio State by 10.6 points at Michigan, a spread that seems too low.
Bet: Pass
Ed Feng runs The Power Rank, a football analytics and betting site.
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