Week 2 College Football Picks, Predictions: Our NCAAF Group of 6 Moneyline Underdog Bets for Sept. 12
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College football Week 2 is here, which means it’s time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of 6 experts from the “Big Bets on Campus” podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Navy vs. Florida Atlantic and Montana State vs. Nevada on Saturday night.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 6 ‘dogs pay out at over 6-1.
Let’s take a look at our Week 2 college football picks and NCAAF predictions in our Group of 6 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 2.
Week 2 College Football Picks, ML Underdog Parlay
- FAU ML +175 vs. Navy
- Nevada ML +165 vs. Montana State
Parlay Odds: +629 (bet365)
FAU +175 vs. Navy
Navy smoked Towson last week, but don’t let that box score fool you. That Towson team is treading water at the FCS level. Its run defense ranked in the 80s among FCS teams last year.
This one hinges on a few specific things for Navy.
First, can quarterback Braxton Woodson be anything like Blake Horvath if he’s asked to throw more than 10 times? Woodson has completed just 46% of his career attempts, so it’s a big unknown.
Secondly, who replaces Eli Heidenreich at the hybrid “snipe” slot-back role? Navy basically rotated through six different players there against Towson.
On the FAU side, we need to know if it can stop turning the ball over. The Owls were a very strong home team last year (4-2), but turnovers killed them at times. If they can eliminate the giveaways, they’ll be a different squad.
Last week, FAU played about 22 quality minutes against Florida before getting exposed by athleticism and play-calling. The Gators looked capable in every facet in new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner’s offense. Georgia Tech’s offense, meanwhile, fell off a cliff.
The takeaway is that the gap in athleticism and schematic execution showed up quickly. Navy doesn’t have the same athletes that Florida has.
Defensively, FAU has continuity, so there’s tape to study. If they can get better and improve on the nation’s worst turnover margin (-21), they can cause real problems for Navy.
Offensively, FAU can attack the skies.
Kelby Valsin’s arrival from Texas Tech is huge. The Owls led the nation in passing yards with quarterback Caden Veltkamp last year, and Valsin has already showen that he can be a weapon for the former Western Kentucky quarterback.
He had 10 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets against Florida. If Valsin continues to be that guy and Easton Messer plays second fiddle, this passing game can pop when defenses aren’t keyed on Messer alone.
I think FAU at north of +150 is good value. It opened closer to 2-1 and has slid, but people still are still buying into who the Mids have been over the past few seasons.
Pick: Nevada ML +175
Nevada +165 vs. Montana State
By Joshua Nunn
Montana State has looked impressive this season, but the context matters.
Its two wins came over Butler and Utah Tech, neither of which offers anything close to the same level of competition it’ll face against Nevada. Butler is a non‑scholarship Pioneer League team and Utah Tech has been awful. Those games didn’t pressure Montana State at all.
Contrast that with what we just saw from Nevada. The effort, intensity and execution were all there against Western Kentucky ;ast week.
The ground game was explosive and consistent, as Nevada stayed on schedule. Quarterback Carter Jones also looked sharp when he was called upon. He threw it only 15 times for 163 yards, but he added 50 yards on the ground on six carries.
On the other side of the ball, the defense pretty much blew the game open.
That Havoc-style defense is going to be a real problem. Dylan LaBarbera racked up a sack and six tackles, while EJ Smith posted 14 tackles and was all over the field. This team swarms to the ball.
There’s also an interesting coaching subplot. Nevada head coach Jeff Choate used to coach at Montana State and is credited with helping turn that program around. People give Brent Vigen a lot of the credit for the rise, but Chote’s role matters here.
The Bobcats are still one of the top FCS teams on paper. That said, we don’t really know how their execution will hold up against quality opposition. Through two tune‑ups they haven’t faced pressure or true adversity, and the trenches look a touch down from last year on both lines. Add to that the fact Caden Dowler, their top safety, is out, and that’s a secondary concern worth watching.
Meanwhile, Nevada’s defense has shown it can lock teams down. Against Western Kentucky, it allowed just one touchdown over the first 10 possessions. That kind of sustained defensive performance creates different game dynamics.
I believe the Wold Pack will be energized by the home crowd and a raucous environment, and they’ll attack with speed and physicality.
I had this game as a pick’em when I lined it. Montana State is a great FCS team, but this matchup matters a lot more to Nevada. For the Bobcats, a loss here won’t derail FCS Playoff positioning, so while they’ll want to win, the stakes aren’t the same.
Give me the Pack.
Pick: Nevada ML +165
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