Week 5 College Football Picks: Joshua Nunn’s Predictions for Today’s Under-the-Radar NCAAF Games

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Saturday’s Week 5 college football slate features plenty of under-the-radar matchups that may not get the coverage they deserve.

With that said, I decided to dive into four of those matchups on Saturday: Akron vs. Central Michigan, Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina and Army vs. Louisiana Tech.

Let’s take a look at my Week 5 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, Oct. 3.

Akron vs Central Michigan Pick

Akron is depleted along the defensive front, and the Zips were flat-out embarrassed by UNLV at home last week.

The offense struggled to get anything going and now will have to rely on third-string quarterback Brayden Roggow, who has thrown for just 425 yards this season.

The Zips are averaging just 11 points per game against FBS competition this season and rank 137th nationally in offensive explosiveness.

The offensive line play has been poor, as Akron quarterbacks have been sacked 10 times this season while giving up 28 tackles for loss.

The ground game has been OK, but the backs aren’t finding the big chunk plays needed for Akron to seize momentum in its games.

Central Michigan controlled the clock and the line of scrimmage against both Colgate and Wyoming at home, and I believe the Chips will have success against a struggling Akron defense.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Central Michigan run for nearly 300 yards while getting the quarterback run game back to where we’re used to seeing it.

Akron has also allowed 10 completions of more than 30 yards and seven such plays of over 40 yards this season.

The secondary is one of the worst in the country, and with so much focus on stopping the CMU run game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chips sneak a few past Akron and complete some deep passes to put this group in the red zone.

Central is going to be physical at the point of attack in this game, and Akron should wear down in the second half of this one.

Akron ranks just 101st nationally in Rushing Success Rate on defense, and while the explosives might not be there on the ground, it will be very demoralizing in the second half if it can’t get off the field and the defense is stuck out there trying to stop the power run game.

The Zips have been outscored in the second half, 45-7, over the last two weeks, and I expect CMU to pull away in the second half of this game and win this one by a couple of scores. Lay the number.

Pick: Central Michigan -6.5

Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina Pick

Georgia Southern comes into this game off three max-effort games at Clemson, at Jacksonville State and vs. Houston, and GATA lost all three of them.

Now, the bigger issue is the injury report, which lists Jaquari Brown, Fabo Chaney and Rashon Myles Jr. all out for the season on the defensive side, along with leading receiver Ashton Hollins, who’s also out for the year.

Receivers Josh Dallas, Jeremiah Ware and Alex Taylor are also banged up, so the Eagles will be heading into this conference road game banged up and in an exhale spot.

Georgia Southern quarterback Max Johnson has thrown the ball well, completing 66% of his passes, but the offensive line has struggled badly with allowing Havoc, and Johnson has taken a pounding through four weeks.

The ground attack is subpar, and it could be a struggle for Georgia Southern to keep pace with Coastal Carolina.

The Chants are clearly down a notch from what this program was in its heyday, but Ryan Beard has this group playing really hard. Coastal Carolina has been involved in close, competitive ball games the last couple of weeks against Delaware and Liberty.

Quarterback Deuce Bailey is an electrifying player who has thrown for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns, and Coastal ranks fourth in the country in terms of explosive passes.

I expect the receivers to break free in this one against a poor Georgia Southern coverage unit.

Coastal has struggled defensively against three dynamic offenses, which make the defensive metrics look worse than the team talent would suggest.

I expect this defense to have success against Georgia Southern, which is one of the least explosive offenses in the entire country and one that allows Havoc on 17% of offensive snaps.

The spot favors Coastal Carolina, which will also have a couple of extra days of prep after playing last Thursday. I have a play on Coastal +2.5.

Pick: Coastal Carolina +2.5

Army vs Louisiana Tech Pick

The Army defense is such a liability for this team, and the saving grace has been long, time-consuming drives conducted by the Black Knights offense, which keep the defense on the sideline.

Army has given up 7.75 yards per play against FBS competition and hasn’t forced a turnover this season. It has to get better at defending the pass, as the coverage unit ranks 126th nationally in passing explosiveness allowed in passing downs.

Even when opposing offenses have been backed up behind the sticks, Army has given up big plays, and drives have been extended.

Louisiana Tech could be getting quarterback Blake Baker back this week, which could help the Bulldogs rack up more explosive plays on offense, something they do at a rate good enough for seventh nationally.

Wide receivers Jalen Mickens and Talyn Shettron will be able to make plays downfield, so Louisiana Tech should have its best offensive outing since the opener.

Army will find success offensively against a Louisiana Tech team that has struggled with giving up explosive plays on the ground.

I love what we’ve seen from the Army rushing attack from Godspower Nwawuihe, but slotback Zach Mundell gives this offense an explosive element that could be tough for the Bulldogs to defend.

This game has a chance to be a high-scoring affair. Louisiana Tech will move the ball and should rack up over 400 yards of total offense. So long as the Bulldogs convert in the red zone, this team should score at least four touchdowns.

Army will have to operate on the road with more urgency in this game, so we should squeeze out a few more total possessions and a little more pace from the Knights.

I;d look to the over in this matchup, with the total set at 47.5.

Pick: Over 47.5

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