Week 7 Game Predictions: Northwestern vs. Michigan State

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Northwestern football is back on the road this Saturday for an intriguing Big Ten matchup against Michigan State.

The No. 25 Wildcats enter the contest with a 4-1 record following a dominant victory over Ball State, while the Spartans are looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking overtime loss to Illinois.

With Aidan Chiles returning to face his former team, David Braun going up against Pat Fitzgerald and both teams dealing with injuries, there are plenty of storylines heading into this matchup.

Here’s how our Northwestern Roundtable staff sees Saturday’s game playing out.

Alex Kwiatkowski (5-0): Northwestern 28, Michigan State 24

This feels like one of those tricky trap games on Northwestern’s schedule. After such an impressive start to the season, the Wildcats now head into a difficult road environment while dealing with several key injuries.

However, I believe David Braun has this team too well-coached and prepared to overlook any opponent. Northwestern’s offense has been firing on all cylinders under Chip Kelly, and with Aidan Chiles leading the way, this unit can make something happen at any moment.

I expect Michigan State to put up a tough fight, but I trust Northwestern to make the necessary plays down the stretch and escape East Lansing with a hard-fought 28-24 victory.

Prediction: Northwestern 28, Michigan State 24

Nick Meyer (2-1): Northwestern 25, Michigan State 19

Michigan State has plenty of game film on Aidan Chiles, while Chiles has the added motivation of showing his former team just how much he has developed as a quarterback. Pat Fitzgerald is beginning to get his team playing competitive football, as evidenced by last week’s close overtime loss to a solid Illinois team.

However, I believe the difference in this matchup will be Chip Kelly’s offense. Northwestern might make a few mistakes against a fired-up Spartans team, but the Wildcats’ offensive balance and creativity will ultimately be enough to secure another victory.

Prediction: Northwestern 25, Michigan State 19

Luke Slabaugh (1-0): Northwestern 31, Michigan State 28

Do I get extra points for correctly predicting last week’s score? It’s worth remembering that Northwestern is 5-0 against the spread this season. Whatever Vegas thinks, you can usually flip it around, and there’s your game. The Wildcats are favored by a touchdown, but I don’t expect it to be that easy.

The “Fitz Bowl” certainly isn’t lacking drama. Michigan State has struggled to find its footing since Kenneth Walker III helped lead the Spartans to the Peach Bowl five years ago. Now, Pat Fitzgerald finds himself facing the program he led for 17 seasons. I respect Fitzgerald’s place in Northwestern history as the program’s winningest coach, but by 2022, it felt like college football was beginning to pass him by. With the sport changing rapidly in the NIL era, Northwestern now appears to be in better hands under David Braun.

Northwestern’s first conference road test against Indiana started poorly before the Wildcats put together a strong second half. Offensively, I expect them to keep rolling. Aidan Chiles has extra motivation facing his former team, and his precision on opening drives over the past two games has been impressive. Protecting the football will be critical, and I still have some questions about Northwestern’s secondary, particularly after the second quarter against Ball State. However, I don’t expect Michigan State to provide many definitive answers.

This has all the makings of a closer game than the spread suggests, but I trust Northwestern’s offense to make enough plays to escape East Lansing with another victory.

Prediction: Northwestern 31, Michigan State 28

Gavin Dorsey (2-1): Northwestern 34, Michigan State 17

Looking at the recent schedules of these two teams, this matchup initially feels like an unstoppable force meeting a very movable object. Michigan State lost by 17 points to Notre Dame, 18 to Nebraska and 28 to Wisconsin before last week’s matchup against Illinois. Although the Spartans ultimately fell by one point in overtime, their ability to rally from an early deficit suggests that the narrow loss could be a turning point in the early stages of the Pat Fitzgerald era.

I still don’t expect Michigan State to beat Northwestern, but I think the game could be more competitive than the records suggest. The Spartans have been hit hard by injuries, particularly on defense, and Northwestern has the more talented roster. This could be a big afternoon for running backs Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II, who should have opportunities to take advantage of Michigan State’s depleted defense.

Northwestern has scored at least 34 points against every opponent except Indiana, and I’m giving Chip Kelly’s offense the benefit of the doubt to continue that trend Saturday. Robert Fitzgerald’s injury status is concerning, but getting Damon Walters and Braden Turner back should provide a significant boost to the Wildcats’ secondary.

Prediction: Northwestern 34, Michigan State 17

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