What Michigan Would Gain by Leaving the Big Ten

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The case for Michigan football independence comes down to money and control, and the next version of the College Football Playoff is about to put both in play. ESPN and the CFP have reached a handshake agreement to expand the field to 24 teams beginning with the 2027 season, sources told ESPN, with the terms still to be put on paper.

Under the proposed plan, teams seeded first through eighth would earn a first-round bye and then a home game, while teams nine through 16 would host a first-round game. For a program of Michigan’s size, that makes reaching the field far easier and makes the expanded bracket the thing worth chasing instead of an 18-team conference race. That is where Dan Wetzel of ESPN picks up the argument.

The Big Ten Money Michigan Would Walk Away From

Michigan’s cut of the Big Ten is not small. The conference distributed a record $1.37 billion to its 18 members for the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2025, an average of about $76.1 million per school, and CBS Sports reported that fully vested members generally received between roughly $76 million and $80 million. Ohio State led the league at $91.57 million after winning the national title in the 2024 season.

Wetzel’s position is that Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State would do better selling themselves. He wrote on X that the three could build a scheduling agreement that would “increase their media revenue 2-3x” with “no sharing money” and “no forced TV times.”

“To use the Big Ten as an example, why wouldn’t Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State follow? If you can, be independent. That’s the future. The 18-team Big Ten is bloated, distant, and winning it carries little intrinsic or competitive value for the biggest brands.”

What Michigan Football Independence Would Buy on the Schedule

The schedule is the part Wetzel thinks gets undersold. In the same thread he argued the three schools could pick their own opponents and play “eight or even nine home games,” and that the league-wide research grants often cited as a reason to stay have workarounds. “Staying in the Big Ten now makes little and perhaps no economic sense,” he added. “In terms of athletics, for those schools (and maybe a few more) it’s lost revenue for the sake of loyalty and we know how that usually gets settled.”

His model is Notre Dame, which he called “the best situation in all of football” under a 24-team bracket: close to a guaranteed playoff spot, freedom to schedule as it wishes, and the ability to maximize its own media value. The same logic is why the Michigan and Ohio State rivalry game carries more weight in the new format than the trophy at the end of the Big Ten season.

Why None of This Happens Before 2036

The grant of rights is the wall, and Michigan has already said out loud that independence is on the table once it expires. Regent Jordan Acker told NBC Sports reporter Nicole Auerbach on SiriusXM’s College Sports Today on Nov. 17, 2025: “The possibility of independence for football is certainly something that has to be considered. Not today, but at the end of the Grant of Rights (in 2036).”

Acker said it while Michigan’s regents were publicly fighting the Big Ten’s proposed private equity deal, and three days later the board was reported as still opposed to that deal while committed to the conference. So this is a 2036 decision, not a 2027 one. What 2027 changes is what a Big Ten championship is actually worth, and that is the number Wetzel is watching.

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