What Oklahoma's College Football Playoff exit means for USC in 2026

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It was painful for many USC football fans to see Oklahoma make it back to the College Football Playoff without Lincoln Riley before the Trojans could crack the CFP with Riley. There was plenty to learn from that, and plenty of props to give Brent Venables, as I wrote about at Trojans Wire two weeks ago.

Lots of irony

But now, Trojan fans can breathe a sigh of relief. Oklahoma is not in a better spot without Lincoln Riley than they were with him, at least not yet. It’s just like Trojans Wire editor Matt Zemek wrote over at College Wire:

“Irony is abundant in life and in sports,” Zemek wrote. “Two men can represent completely different worldviews and philosophies. They can apply two diametrically opposite approaches to a craft, to a game, to a given task on a given night. They can have different personalities and elicit strongly contrasting reactions and feelings from given groups of people. Yet, they can end up in exactly the same place. Moreover, they can suffer that fate for the same reason. This is the story of Brent Venables and Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma.”

“The Sooners have improbably not yet won a playoff game in the 12 years of the event’s existence. We say “improbably” because OU has made five of the 12 playoffs since the event’s birth in 2014. That’s nearly half of the playoffs which have ever been held. An 0-5 record in playoff games is straight out of the Toronto Maple Leafs or Seattle Mariners handbook. It defies the odds. Yet, it’s reality. Why? The answer is simple. Brent Venables — Mr. Defense — and Mr. Offense, Lincoln Riley, come at football from opposite ends of the pigskin spectrum. Yet, they share the common flaw of being inadequate on the side of the ball they don’t focus on.”

The Sooners had a better 2025, no doubt. Making the playoff is a more successful season than falling 1 win short of the playoff and making the Alamo Bowl. But now, with both teams at home, they are on level playing field ahead of the 2026 season: both clearly need to get better if they want to compete for a national championship.

Here’s what will define who is the better team in 2026:

Does John Mateer stay or go, and what would staying even mean?

It’s been an up-and-down season for Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer. After a big year at Washington State in 2024, he transferred to Oklahoma alongside his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle with a lot of hype. He was the chosen one, the golden boy that would finally deliver an elite Oklahoma offense to compliment Brent Venables’ strengths on the defensive side of the football.

Instead, Mateer was solid at times but never really spectacular. After throwing three touchdowns in Oklahoma’s season-opening win versus Illinois State, he never threw more than 2 in a game again. He had multiple games with 3 interceptions.

Overall, he finished the season with 2,885 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also added 431 rushing yards and 8 rush TD.

For one, a less-than-stellar year could inspire Mateer to return to OU and get another year of college experience under his belt before entering the NFL draft.

But on the flip side, Mateer is projected to be a highly-regarded prospect anyway. Why not just take advantage of a very weak quarterback class and hit the NFL early?

And there’s the always-unpredictable third option that Mateer hits the transfer portal.

If Mateer stays, it will seemingly be an indication that Oklahoma is confident in him, because with all his options, it would make sense for him to look elsewhere if the Sooners don’t basically guarantee him a starting role. But will he improve? If he leaves, can Oklahoma upgrade at the position?

Jayden Maiava’s stardom at USC in 2026 feels like more of a sure thing, but comparing the Sooners and the Trojans in 2026 will always start with comparing those two.

The other 2026 roster considerations

USC has the better 2026 recruiting class on paper, with the No. 1 ranked class in the country and a whopping 35 freshman players set to come and play in South Central Los Angeles.

But Oklahoma has a very solid class as well, ranked No. 15 in the country with 12 four stars and 12 three stars coming to Norman.

USC has 15 outgoing transfers and 1 incoming transfer confirmed thus far, though the Trojans have done a good job mostly retaining their most vital 2025 contributors who still have eligibility. Sooner players haven’t had much time to evaluate their futures given that their season just ended on Friday, and obviously, the portal hasn’t even opened yet. So which school navigates the portal better, on paper, is a narrative that has yet to form.

But of course, rosters on paper don’t matter if you don’t develop and coach them well. USC and Oklahoma both have a lot of work to do, but also plenty of reason to be optimistic about the talent they currently have.

How do the D’Anton Lynn-Penn State rumors shake out?

If D’Anton Lynn really does leave for Penn State, USC will have to make a high-level hire. It would arguably be the most important hire in Lincoln Riley’s entire tenure; even more important than hiring Lynn to replace Alex Grinch, just because the bar was so low when Grinch departed. Lynn has elevated USC’s defense, and replacing him with a better coach at this point in the coaching cycle would be difficult.

Lynn’s departure is something that could entirely sink all of USC’s momentum, or it could be a blessing in disguise if his replacement performs even better. Regardless, it’s a news story that Trojan and Sooner fans both have to be watching closely.

Can each coach get more out of the assistants on the other side of the ball?

Speaking of Riley-Lynn, I wonder if Lynn leaving would be a negative reflection on high level defensive talent wanting to work with Lincoln Riley. If Lynn doesn’t want to work with Riley, would that make it harder to hire someone who would, especially given Riley’s history of defensive struggles?

Anyway, this is something that Matt Zemek hinted at and is clearly a problem for both coaches: getting the most out of their assistants on the other side of the ball.

This year, Oklahoma’s offense under Arbuckle and USC’s defense under Lynn were…fine. I don’t think either unit came close to (admittedly high) preseason expectations from their fanbase.

Moreover, USC’s defense was not a clear improvement from 2024 in 2025. Oklahoma’s offense was definitely better in 2025 than 2024, but Arbuckle will be facing that same pressure to improve in 2026…or the critics of Venables’s offensive staff management will come out of the woodwork again.

Can each coach be a CEO, coach their coaches, and get the most out of the talented assistants that coach on the side of the football opposite of their expertise? To put it simply, can Riley get the most out of USC’s defensive coaches? Can Venables get the most out of Oklahoma’s offensive coaches?

How does USC finalize its schedule?

USC will not play Notre Dame in 2026. It’s very sad, and I will have plenty more words on that later.

But I would say that, as currently constructed, the Oklahoma schedule allows the Sooners more margin for error in their request to return to the College Football Playoff in 2026.

Oklahoma and the entire SEC are moving to a nine-game conference schedule next season. The Sooners play what should be very difficult games against Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M in conference play, and to top it all off, they have a non conference game on their schedule that should actually challenge them, against Michigan.

USC is also set to play a tough conference schedule in 2026 with games against all of the Big Ten’s top three teams this past season: Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana.

But without Notre Dame on the schedule, the Trojans are only set to take on Fresno State and Louisiana in their non-conference slate.

To ensure that the Trojans’ strength of schedule argument is airtight, they should schedule a Power Four opponent to replace Notre Dame on the schedule. If they don’t, they could find themselves losing less games than Oklahoma and still watching the Sooners make the playoff in 2026.

There are plenty more players and storylines to follow for both USC and Oklahoma this offseason, but those are the five that I see to be the most important as it stands right now.

This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Oklahoma loses to Alabama in first round of CFP as USC watches

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