What will decide the college football Top 25 games of Week 4? One question for each game
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With seven games this weekend between teams ranked in one of the two major polls, things are beginning to heat up in the Power Four and in the race for the College Football Playoff.
Six games involve teams in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll, beginning with a very important road trip for No. 1 Texas against No. 13 Tennessee. The seventh features No. 21 Missouri against Mississippi State, which is ranked in the Coaches Poll but debuted at No. 24 in the Associated Press Top 25.
These are the weekends that end up holding an intense role in determining which teams play for conference championships, which earn automatic berth and a first-round bye, and which grab the remaining at-large bids.
And each game will provide an answer to a key question, starting with the Longhorns’ chances of finally putting together an impressive performance away from home:
No. 1 Texas at No. 13 Tennessee: Can Texas avoid the road-game blues?
Every team is different at home and on the road. Texas is taking that to an extreme.
Since the start of last season, the Longhorns are 9-0 at home, 2-0 on neutral sites and then 2-3 on the road, with both wins coming in overtime against mediocre-to-worse competition.
Last year’s losses came to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia, while the Longhorns were able to get past Kentucky and Mississippi State despite playing way down to their competition. The poster child for this home-road split is Arch Manning, who has 27 touchdowns against six interceptions in his career at home and seven touchdowns with five interceptions in five true road starts.
This month’s comeback against the No. 7 Buckeyes validated Texas as a worthy No. 1 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. But this road trip to Knoxville will give us a glimpse into whether the Longhorns have the makeup to win in the types of settings — against a ranked opponent in a tough environment — that determine the national championship.
No. 24 Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia: Will John Mateer get back on track?
Oklahoma’s season is already beginning to unwind after losing to No. 18 Michigan and barely escaping an upset against New Mexico. One common thread through three games has been the subpar play of quarterback John Mateer, continuing a trend that began with a thumb injury he suffered in last September’s win against Auburn.
Since that injury, Mateer is completing 60.1% of his attempts with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He had a costly turnover that led to the Wolverines’ game-winning score and had another two picks in the win against the Lobos.
The lack of progression from Mateer and the entire Oklahoma offense under coordinator Ben Arbuckle has been one of the biggest disappointments in the Power Four. A double-digit loss to the Bulldogs would bring that into focus and make things very stressful for Brent Venables and the Sooners the rest of the way.
No. 6 Mississippi at No. 22 Florida: Can Ole Miss avoid a post-Lane swoon?
Not that anyone would blame the Rebels for coming out flat in the Swamp. Last week’s 32-24 win against LSU ranks among the most memorable in program history, and easily among the most cathartic and emotional.
Now Ole Miss needs to get back up to take on a surging Florida team, which looked the part of a playoff contender in winning at Auburn last Saturday. The Gators are playing with enormous energy under new coach Jon Sumrall and have already grasped onto an offensive identity built around All-America running back Jadan Baugh.
Having Trinidad Chambliss helps. The senior might’ve taken over the early Heisman Trophy lead with his performance against the Tigers. Also helpful is the fact the Rebels have already been tested by a pair of ranked teams in LSU and No. 19 Louisville.
No. 20 Texas A&M at No. 11 LSU: What does A&M need to fix?
Texas A&M looked totally unprepared for last week’s matchup with Kentucky and was outcoached coming out of halftime, as the Wildcats put together a 21-point third quarter and held on for a 31-21 win.
Now the Aggies prepare to head on the road against an opponent that fell behind 24-7 at the break against the Rebels but figured things out in the second half. LSU looks to repackage that midgame turnaround and get back on track as a playoff contender.
There has been a clear drop from last year’s suffocating defense. At this point, the offensive line isn’t good enough to take over games and make things easier on quarterback Marcel Reed.
But Reed himself will be the most scrutinized player on the field in Death Valley. His game needs to take a big step forward for the Aggies to score a road win.
No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan: Will the Michigan running game get moving?
One way to highlight Michigan’s declining production on the ground through three games is by looking at first down. Last year, the Wolverines averaged 6.1 yards per carry on first down and went for at least 10 yards on 16.9% of those 255 carries. So far this year, those numbers are down to 4.3 yards and 10%, respectively.
The coaching change to Kyle Whittingham and changes in personnel have played a role. But the inability to grab a chunk of yardage to open each set of downs has weighed down the offense as a whole and put too much pressure on second-year quarterback Bryce Underwood.
Iowa is still a bit of an unknown; the Hawkeyes’ one Power Four matchup was a 16-13 win against Iowa State. But the Hawkeyes have faced 90 carries as a defense and allowed just three gains of 10 or more yards, tied for the fewest in the country.
No. 16 Oregon at No. 12 Southern California: What happens if Oregon loses again?
This one is easy: Another Oregon loss, joining the upset against Oklahoma State, would essentially be fatal for any playoff hopes.
If they fall short of the playoff, the Ducks would rank among the biggest disappointments in the Power Four. That’s given the general state of the roster, the high-profile quarterback in Dante Moore and the program’s run of success under Dan Lanning since joining the Big Ten.
This is the first of three conference games against teams in this week’s Coaches Poll, along with games against the Buckeyes and Michigan to start November. Oregon might also face ranked teams in UCLA and Nebraska in October and again with Washington to end the regular season.
No. 21 Missouri at Mississippi State: Will Kamario Taylor be the Heisman favorite after Saturday?
The hype is already building around the second-year starter. Taylor has quickly become a rising star in the SEC thanks to his 11 touchdowns and just one interception against a schedule that has included back-to-back road Power Four matchups in Minnesota and South Carolina.
He completely outplayed LaNorris Sellers in last week’s 41-34 win, throwing for 251 yards on 9.7 yards per attempt with four scores. In addition to his passing, Taylor has added 178 yards and a touchdown on 6.6 yards per carry.
While his numbers will definitely take a dip in SEC play, Taylor’s performance so far is reminiscent of Jayden Daniels’ Heisman-winning season at LSU in 2023, when he averaged 11.7 yards per pass and 8.4 yards per carry.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What will decide the college football Top 25 games of Week 4? One question for each game
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