What Will the Final College Football Playoff Top 12 Be?
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Just when everything appeared to be cut-and-dry, and, to be honest, a little dull … wham.
Oklahoma shocked Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and now the College Football Playoff picture just got a whole lot more interesting.
What will final CFP top 12 be a few weeks from now? Here’s the prediction and projection going into Week 13.
– Oklahoma changed everything. Now it looks like the SEC will dominate the final top 12 with five teams getting in, if everything goes according to plan.
– The big debate in the end will be about a second Big 12 team. If BYU and Texas Tech play each other in the Big 12 Championship, and each is 11-1, that’s a big problem for the SEC’s fifth team, and …
– Miami. It might need a lot of help now, considering the CFP committee doesn’t seem to have any interest in dropping Notre Dame down a bit (basically, the CFP had the Irish too high to begin with).
– Here’s the other problem for Miami and a second Big 12 team. The College Football Playoff has this ridiculous self-created rule that it won’t punish teams for losing a conference championship. That means Alabama, even with three losses, will probably get in.
Here’s the breakdown and prediction for what the final top 12 will be.
12. North Texas Mean Green
Or James Madison as the Sun Belt champion. Either way, the top Group of Five champion will go here.
Don’t be fooled if the rankings have James Madison higher over the last few weeks. The American champion winner will have a far better final win to factor in.
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide will almost certainly finish the regular season 10-2, with wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee overshadowing the losses.
They’ll likely end up in the SEC Championship, and again, the CFP won’t punish a loss there.
10. Oklahoma Sooners
The win over Alabama was everything, but a victory over Michigan will be the icing on the cake that gets OU in with relative ease. At the very least, the CFP can’t put in Bama without Oklahoma.
9. Virginia Cavaliers
Or whatever team comes out of the pile with an ACC Championship. If it’s Georgia Tech, it’ll be 11th if it loses to Georgia in the regular season finale.
If it’s 11-2 Virginia, it’ll get some credit for being the ACC Champion, but this will be about as high as it goes.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Even though there might not be a killer win, the committee from the start respected the close losses to Texas A&M and Miami that could’ve easily gone the other way.
The blowout wins are piling up, and now, beating USC and Navy matters even more.
7. Ole Miss Rebels
The win over Oklahoma will resonate more and more over the final weeks. As long as there isn’t a blown tire against Mississippi State, the 11-1 Rebels won’t finish any lower than this, and could end up as high as …
6. Oregon Ducks
In some way between Oregon and Ole Miss, it’ll be – begging all forgiveness for this, but in this case, it actually means something – 6-7.
There should be a late shift in the rankings if all goes according to plan.
The Ducks will be behind a slew of teams, but assuming wins over USC and Washington, the metrics and eye-test factors should be stronger.
The lone loss to Indiana will be seen as slightly better than the Ole Miss loss to Georgia.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
The SEC tie-breakers are about to get crazy, but Georgia will probably be just outside of the conference title game. However, assume it’ll be 11-1, it’ll get the time off to rest up, and it’ll settle in just outside of the top four.
4. Indiana Hoosiers
Or the Big Ten Championship loser.
No, the CFP committee doesn’t necessarily “punish” teams that lose a conference championship, but it also rewards conference champions first and foremost. So assume this will be either the 12-1 Hoosiers or 12-1 Buckeyes, and …
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Big 12 Champion will be 12-1, and the committee will give more than enough respect to a Texas Tech team that’s been rolling all year long. If this is, say, BYU, then the entire CFP top 12 here changes.
2. Texas A&M Aggies
It’s no longer a lock that the SEC Champion is the two, because Alabama won’t be this high if it gets in and pulls it off. But if it’s 13-0 Texas A&M, it’s No. 2 with ease, and …
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
This is the easiest part of the whole puzzle. The 13-0 Big Ten champ will be the 1. However, there should be a debate – Texas A&M will have better overall wins, if it goes unbeaten, than the Big Ten champ.
Related: Notre Dame, Miami, or a Big 12 Team? Who Did Oklahoma Knock Out of the CFP?
This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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