Which Five-Win Teams Will Make a Bowl Game? Our Bowl Bubble Picks
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There are the teams at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings trying to get into the tournament.
There are the teams with seven losses or more that will be done by late next Saturday night, and there are the teams with six or more wins that will gear up for a lovely bowl game somewhere fascinating.
And then there are those teams that just want to play a little more football.
There are currently 21 teams with five wins – not counting 5-7 Akron and 5-6 Delaware, who aren’t eligible to go to a bowl game – who need one more win next week to get to the magical six-win mark.
Out of these bubble teams, which ones will get it done? We’ll dive deeper with the game previews and predictions, but for now, here’s our call on which 5-6 teams will keep their bubbles from popping.
Five-Win Bowl Bubble Teams: Who Will Be In, Out, and Still Alive?
App State Mountaineers
Opponent: Arkansas State
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: App State -2.5)
Will App State Be Bowl Eligible? Lean slight yes, but only because it’s a home game. The call would be the other way if this was at …
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Opponent: at App State
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: App State -2.5)
Will Arkansas State Be Bowl Eligible? 50/50, because the Red Wolves are playing better than the Mountaineers, even if they’ve lost their last two games.
Army Black Knights
Opponent: at UTSA
Early Betting Line: UTSA -6.5
Will Army Be Bowl Eligible? No, not this week, but it’s still possible. Army is 5-5 and still has to play Navy, but that’s after the bowl games are announced.
It’ll get trucked by UTSA, who’s playing lights out at home, but there will likely be a contingency plan in place in case the Knights beat Navy and get to six wins.
Auburn Tigers
Opponent: Alabama
Early Betting Line: Alabama -5.5
Will Auburn Be Bowl Eligible? No. Alabama has the potential to implode, and Auburn has the defense to make the Iron Bowl close, but the offensive pop isn’t there.
Baylor Bears
Opponent: Houston
Early Betting Line: Baylor -1.5
Will Baylor Be Bowl Eligible? Lean yes. It’s been the call since February that Baylor would win this game, and there’s no backing off it now.
Buffalo Bulls
Opponent: Ohio
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: Ohio -8.5)
Will Buffalo Be Bowl Eligible? No, because there’s one massive problem – Ohio needs this to have any hope of winning a tie-breaker to get to the MAC Championship. Buffalo only has wins over the weak and sad.
Florida State Seminoles
Opponent: at Florida
Early Betting Line: Florida -4.5
Will Florida State Be Bowl Eligible? Very slight lean no. The Seminoles have yet to win on the road, but Florida is crashing late in the season. FSU might be the biggest toss-up of all the teams on the bowl bubble, with the possible exception of …
Georgia Southern Eagles
Opponent: at Marshall
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: Marshall -6.5)
Will Georgia Southern Be Bowl Eligible? No. Marshall needs this win to get bowl eligible, too, and it’ll be a bit better at home.
Kansas Jayhawks
Opponent: Utah
Early Betting Line: Utah -13.5
Will Kansas Be Bowl Eligible? No, but it’ll be incredibly competitive up until the last ten minutes.
Kansas State Wildcats
Opponent: Colorado
Early Betting Line: Kansas State -11.5
Will Kansas State Be Bowl Eligible? Yes. The Wildcats will be up to 340 yards rushing against the Colorado defense by the time you finish reading this.
Kentucky Wildcats
Opponent: at Louisville
Early Betting Line: Louisville -4.5
Will Kentucky Be Bowl Eligible? Total toss-up. This freaky-weird team got rocked in last year’s game, but has won five of the last six. It won at Auburn, blasted Florida, and didn’t make the trip to Vanderbilt. If we have to make a call, it would probably be yes.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Opponent: ULM
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: Louisiana -7.5
Will Louisiana Be Bowl Eligible? Yes, it’s on a great three-game winning streak to put itself in the position to get bowling. It’s won six of the last seven in the rivalry.
Marshall Thundering Herd
Opponent: Georgia Southern
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: Marshall -6.5)
Will Marshall Be Bowl Eligible? Yeah, but it’ll be a fight. The Herd have lost three of their last four, but they’re just solid enough at home to pull this off.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Opponent: Ole Miss
Early Betting Line: Ole Miss -7.5
Will Mississippi State Be Bowl Eligible? No, but it’s not even close to being a slam dunk. It depends on whether or not the Rebels are an unfocused mess coming out of the tunnel with all the Lane Kiffin hoo-ha happening.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Opponent: at Rutgers
Early Betting Line: Penn State -10.5
Will Penn State Be Bowl Eligible? Yes. Give the kids out there a whole lot of credit. This thing could’ve gone into a death spiral – especially after the Indiana loss – and this bunch kept on fighting. Getting to a bowl game would be truly special.
Rice Owls
Opponent: at USF
Early Betting Line: USF -23.5
Will Rice Be Bowl Eligible? No, but don’t be shocked if the Owls make this more of a battle than the betting lines will make it seem. They’re playing for something. USF isn’t.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Opponent: Penn State
Early Betting Line: Penn State -10.5
Will Rutgers Be Bowl Eligible? No. The win over Maryland a few weeks ago was a great step to keep the dream alive, but unless Penn State totally melts down, then no.
Temple Owls
Opponent: at North Texas
Early Betting Line: North Texas -18.5
Will Temple Be Bowl Eligible? No, and it’s been rough. The Owls got to five wins back in October and lost three straight. Now they get the worst opponent possible – North Texas is at home and needs to pull this off.
Texas State Bobcats
Opponent: South Alabama
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: Texas State -8.5)
Will Texas State Be Bowl Eligible? Yes, but this team is so totally flaky on defense that it’s hardly set in stone. The South Alabama offense is coming off a stunningly great performance in the win over Southern Miss, but the Bobcats will salvage the season by getting that sixth win.
UCF Knights
Opponent: at BYU
Early Betting Line: BYU -16.5
Will UCF Be Bowl Eligible? No, but there’s possibly a massive quirky factor here. The UCF-BYU game is on Saturday. Arizona-Arizona State is on Friday. If the Sun Devils lose, BYU is in the Big 12 Championship.
BYU will still want to win and try for an 11-1 record to impress the CFP, but the whole tenor of the matchup might change.
In other words, UCF fans, the words you’re looking for are Bear Down.
Washington State Cougars
Opponent: Oregon State
Early Betting Line: (NA at the moment. Best Guess: Washington State -14.5)
Will Washington State Be Bowl Eligible? Yes, and with extreme prejudice. Wazzu lost the first meeting 10-7 in Corvallis a few weeks ago. That was Oregon State’s only win over an FBS team. This will be ugly early.
Related: Projected Fourth College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings
This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 23, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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