Who wins ASU vs Baylor football and why

The Arizona State Sun Devils are back at home. Finally.

It has been a unique season for coach Kenny Dillingham's squad, which typically spends much of September in its familiar confines. But now, a month into the season, the Sun Devils have played just one home game — the season opener on Sept. 5 against Morgan State.

After a road game at Texas A&M and the Union Jack Classic against Kansas in London, the Sun Devils will be home for the next two games. The first of those comes this week as the Sun Devils (2-1, 1-0), square off against Baylor (3-1, 1-0), which is a two-point conversion away from being undefeated.

Dillingham is looking forward to returning to familiar territory.

“I'm excited. I love playing at home," he said. "I love running out of the tunnel and seeing 12,000 students, sometimes 13,000 students in a sold-out crowd at night with the fireworks. There's not many better things than to run out of that tunnel in a night game against a conference opponent with a sold-out crowd, with the fireworks rocking, and the sky lit up. There’s nothing like it. This is our first conference night game at home. This is new for a lot of the guys on the team, so I'm excited to get them to see it.”

Baylor (3-1, 1-0) at Arizona State (2-1, 1-0)

Time/site: 7:30 p.m. MT, Saturday, Oct. 3, Mountain America Stadium.

TV: ESPN (Roy Philpott (play-by-play), Brock Osweiler (analyst), Sherree Burruss (sideline). Radio: Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. (Tim Healey, Jeff Van Raaphorst, Kevin Turner, Jeff Munn).

Series history: ASU leads 2-0. ASU won 34-13 in 1990, the only time the teams played in Tempe.

Last meeting: Arizona State defeated Baylor 27-24 in Waco in 2025 in its first Big 12 game of the season. Jesus Gomez kicked a 43-yard field goal on the last play of the game.

Storylines

Arizona State is coming off a 24-17 win over Kansas, but the lackluster performance of the offense has many on edge. A win here and a better showing by quarterback Cutter Boley are important because tougher competition lies ahead.

The Bears were one of the most disappointing teams in the Big 12 a year ago, going just 5-7 overall and 3-6 in conference play, which has put head coach Dave Aranda on the hot seat.

Coaching matchup

Kenny Dillingham, ASU (fourth year, 23-18): Dillingham, 36, has won 21 games since the start of 2024. He is known for his offensive expertise, most notably with quarterbacks.

Dave Aranda, Baylor (seventh year, 39-38): Aranda, 50, is a former national coach of the year when he led theBears to a school-record 12-2 season in 2021, his second year. In six seasons as defensive coordinator at Power 4 schools from 2014-19, his defenses were ranked top-12 nationally in total yards five times.

Baylor will win if . . .

D.J. Lagway has a good game: The Florida transfer sustained an ankle injury in the season opener and missed two games. He returned last week against Colorado but was just 29-for-39 for 221 yards. Aranda expects him to be better this week after getting his game legs back. Lagway can extend plays and make explosive runs, but he can also be erratic, as evidenced by his 23 interceptions over the previous two years at Florida. He is a legacy player, as his father Derek played running back at Baylor from 1997 to 2001.

It gets to the quarterback: The Bears rank first in the Big 12 and fourth overall in sacks, with 15 for a loss of 83 yards in the first four games. That strength targets one of ASU's weaknesses: offensive tackle. Five players have two or more sacks, so it has been a group effort. The Bears are also second in the conference and fifth overall in tackles for a loss.

It avoids penalties: The Bears were called for 10 penalties for 84 yards in last week's win over Colorado and are averaging 74.8 yards per game. They've been called for 29 in the last three games. Aranda isn't overly concerned, though, because few have been of a conduct nature, such as personal fouls. Colorado is the only team in the conference called for more penalties.

Arizona State will win if . . .

It wins the "edges": Dillingham stressed this earlier in the week, and he was referencing both sides of the ball. That means that the tackles on the offensive line need to keep defenders off Boley's back. Those spots on the offensive line have been the most problematic so far. On defense, the Sun Devils need to get a pass rush from their ends. So far they have only five sacks in three games.

Cutter Boley redeems himself: Boley was solid for the first two games, but against Kansas he was just 11-for 23 for 95 yards. Dillingham said the shift to the running game in the second half played a role in that because Boley attempted just a handful of passes and never settled into a rhythm. He has to be more efficient if the Sun Devils are to come away with a win.

Defense can contain Gavin Freeman: The Baylor standout already has 35 receptions for 364 yards, surpassing the 100-yard mark in the first two games. He is tied for first in the country in receptions per game (8.75), is 22nd in receiving yards, and 23rd in yards per game. That despite playing two games without the No. 1 quarterback. ASU is solid in the back end of the defense, so this will be a matchup to watch.

Injury report

Arizona State: S Maurice Williams, DB Jalen Williams, OL Marquis Uni, OL Wade Helton, OL Brent Helton, LB Zyrus Fiaseu, CB Nigel Pringle, and DL MyKiel Gardner are out. RB Grayson Rigdon and OL Manamo'ui Muti are questionable.

Baylor: S Jacob Redding, WR Ashton Jones, DT Devonte Tezino, CB Jamarion Richardson and OL Cayden Tone are out.

Cross connections

• Baylor QB Edward Griffin and ASU WR Harry Hassmann played football together at Coppell High School.
• Baylor WR Jayden McGowan and ASU WR Reed Harris played together at Boston College in 2024.
• ASU S Maurice Williams and Baylor WR's Jacorey Watson and Ashton Jones played together at Shadow Creek High School.
• Baylor CB Stilton McKelvey and ASU DL Kirt Vakalahi played together at New Mexico Military Institute in 2024 ASU long snapper Grayson Curtis and McKelvey played together at New Mexico State in 2025.
• Baylor CB Calvin Simpson-Hunt and ASU P Nick McLarty played at Ohio State together in 2024.
• ASU DB Ashton Stamps and Baylor DB Austin Ausberry played at LSU together in 2024.
• Baylor LBs Jamarion Phillips and JJ Shelton played with ASU OL Cortavius Tisaby at South Oak Cliff High School.
• Baylor LB JJ Shelton played with ASU DB Nigel Pringle in 2025 at Arkansas.
• ASU DL Daeshon Morgan and Baylor DE Daemian Wimberly played together at Vandegrift High School.
• ASU DL Landen Anderson and Baylor DL Jae’Lin Battle played together at Edmond Santa Fe High School.
• ASU RB Cardae Mack played at Atascocita High School with Baylor OL Nate Kibble.
• Baylor OL Connor Cameron was on the ASU roster in 2024.
• ASU DL Roman Pitre played with Baylor WR Ryne Shackelford at Purdue in 2023.
• ASU punter Kanyon Floyd and Baylor TE Matthew Klopfenstein played together at Horizon High School.

By the numbers

9 — Consecutive home sellouts for Arizona State. That streak dates back to the final game of the 2024 season and includes sellouts in all seven home games in 2025.

11 — Victories for the Sun Devils in games decided by seven or fewer points since the start of 2024 — the second-most victories in that time in the FBS (Arkansas State, 12). ASU’s .846 winning percentage in that span is fifth-best in the nation among teams that have played in at least five such games.

19 — Receptions for ASU wide receiver Reed Harris this season. His 19 for 374 yards and five touchdowns through three games lead the Sun Devils.

28.3 — Arizona State's allowed conversion rate on third- or fourth-down attempts (13-of-46) is 10th in the country. Through three games, opponents have converted just 12-of-40 third downs against ASU (30%) – the 27th-lowest tally in the nation. Opponents have just one fourth-down conversion against ASU this season (1-for-6).

They said it

Dillingham on Baylor's renewed emphasis on defense: “They stoned us last year for most of the game. We were in a dogfight over there, and I think it was big, but I think the biggest change is that their head coach has mentioned it multiple times is he made an emphasis on the front."

ASU offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo on the tight end position after the loss of Khamari Anderson: "They've got a big role now. We ask a lot of our tight ends. We've talked a lot this year; we play with a true tight end. It's in-line. It has to control the edge of the defense for us. Those guys have a big responsibility now."

Baylor coach Dave Aranda on the ASU defense: “They make you earn it. They'll play off with corners at times and play corners and three deep in man. They play in such a way, it's eight, nine, 10-play drives. So important for us that, in the process of all of that, we try to find some explosives, but also we don't go backward with a penalty or with a self-inflicted wound. Their whole theory is teams are gonna mess themselves up in trying to go 10 plays, and so that's very much our fight on offense."

Who will win and why

Arizona State 27, Baylor 24: The Sun Devils always play well at home, and the offense is due for a redemption game. Baylor is much improved, especially on defense, so this is likely to be yet another one-score contest.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Who wins ASU vs Baylor football and why