Why Clark Lea, Vanderbilt expect to be a playoff contender after Diego Pavia

TAMPA, FL — Each of the past four years, Vanderbilt football received a few first-place votes in the SEC media preseason poll.

Ballots aren’t public, so it has never been clear whether picking the Commodores was a running gag or based on a true belief in the longtime SEC underdogs. After all, they had one winning season in conference play from 1983 to 2024.

In 2025, two media members picked Vanderbilt to win the SEC title, again drawing an eye roll from some reporters who questioned their motives.

But those unidentified voters were vindicated when Vanderbilt cracked the AP top 10 for the first time since 1947, narrowly missed a College Football Playoff berth, finished with a school-record 10 wins and produced a Heisman Trophy runner-up in quarterback Diego Pavia.

At 2026 SEC media days, coach Clark Lea and his players sensed there were more believers in the Commodores’ ability to compete in arguably the deepest conference in college football.

“I’m incredibly grateful to everyone who’s had the courage to believe in our vision and walk beside us along the way,” Lea said on July 21. “I’m especially grateful to our players, those who chose to stay and fight together (and) build something meaningful while the world laughed from the safety of the sideline.

“Last season was not an arrival. It was simply another step in the climb.”

Why Clark Lea believes Vanderbilt can be in playoff mix again

Lea feels emboldened after Vanderbilt won 17 games in the past two seasons, including a 10-3 record in 2025. The success filled those around the program with soaring optimism and earned credibility with those outside.

“In the building, we definitely believed,” running back Sedrick Alexander said. “But we gained some believers after last season.”

But Pavia fueled that surge, and he has exhausted his eligibility. And to some outside observers, the playmaking quarterback seemed like a shooting star: Very bright but brief.

So it raises the question: In a post-Pavia era, can the Commodores be a College Football Playoff contender again? Lea believes they can.

“You don’t inherit wins. You inherit culture,” he said. “That’s the lineage of these past couple of teams that have broken through and experienced success. They passed along standards and behaviors and expectations.

“We have every expectation to win every game we play. We have every expectation to be in the playoff come January.”

Landing Jared Curtis signals Vanderbilt's next phase

Vanderbilt has upgraded its roster during Lea’s tenure by bolstering NIL resources and making strategic moves in the transfer portal. That culminated with the signing of five-star quarterback Jared Curtis, the Nashville Christian standout who flipped from Georgia to play for the hometown Commodores.

But there are still holes on the roster. The offensive line must be rebuilt. The defense must improve. Replacing tight end Eli Stowers (NFL) and wide receiver Tre Richardson (transferred to Louisville) won’t be easy.

And either Curtis or senior Blaze Berlowitz has the unenviable task of following Pavia at quarterback.

But Vanderbilt no longer must prove it can compete with the SEC’s best teams. It must prove that it can do it again.

“People want to compare this team to last year’s team. While there are similarities, there are also important differences,” Lea said. “Despite these differences, this group has inherited something that previous teams did not: A Vanderbilt football program that expects to win.”

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Why Clark Lea, Vanderbilt expect to be a playoff contender after Diego Pavia