Why fourth-down conversions could be the key factor for Alabama at the Rose Bowl

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

It’s been an interesting road for the Alabama Crimson Tide, who started the season with a surprise loss to the Florida State Seminoles before rattling off eight straight wins. 

That included consecutive victories over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee, who were all top-16 teams at the time. But after that, the team saw some bumps in the road with close wins over South Carolina and Auburn, as well as losses to Oklahoma and Georgia.

After a 34-24 win over Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff, the Crimson Tide might have their toughest test yet: a matchup with the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl on Thursday for a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

On paper, there are quite a few advantages for Indiana. They’re practically elite everywhere and have the resume to back their ranking with wins over Ohio State and Oregon. They have the Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback (Fernando Mendoza), generate explosives at a high rate, and have a shattering defense that is elite at getting off the field.

So, how can the Crimson Tide find a way for an upset? Interestingly enough, that could be from a coaching philosophy. Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has cemented himself as one of the best coaches in the country with how quickly he’s revamped the Hoosiers to the biggest heights in program history.

But the Hoosiers aren’t that aggressive of a fourth-down team. In fact, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, they’ve gone for it just 34 percent of the time on fourth downs in opposing territory, where teams are generally more aggressive. That ranks 100th in the country.

Indiana has had just 16 fourth-down attempts this season, converting at a 50 percent clip, good for 91st in the country.

Looking at the Ohio State game, Indiana had three field goal attempts inside Buckeye territory and also punted at the opposing 38-yard line. Game script and details matter, but there has been a trend, as seen by the numbers with Indiana’s aggressiveness.

Alabama, on the other hand, is aggressive when they reach the other side of the field. They’ve gone for it 49 percent of the time on fourth downs on the other side of the 50, which is a top-30 mark in college football.

Of course, distance and area of the field matter when it comes to those fourth-down decisions, but the Crimson Tide have regularly been a team that will test things on fourth downs. They’ve also converted at a 65 percent rate this season, good for 23rd in the FBS.

And, according to Connelly, Alabama has averaged 6.4 points per drive after converting fourth-downs, which is a top-15 mark in the country. They’re looking to score touchdowns.

In the playoffs, aggressiveness is a factor that could ultimately dictate games, with coaching decisions being magnified even more. That could be the case with these two teams on Thursday, with the statistics showing an advantage to Alabama there.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos