Why Notre Dame’s 2026 season will be decided over the next three games

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Notre Dame football has gone unscathed during its first six games of the 2026 season, but this next three-game stretch of BYU, Navy and then Miami will dictate how the year will go.

This is no knock on SMU, how is also currently ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll, but the Cougars and Hurricanes are both top-8 teams, each undefeated and contending for spot in the College Football Playoff. Perception is huge when vying for one of the 12 spots, and the Irish know how important that is after last year’s still questionable omission.

There are pretty much three scenarios that could play out during this stretch, and let’s take a look at how the season could turn out with each of them, starting with the best two.

Beat Miami or BYU and Navy

This outcome wouldn’t be a death sentence for a CFP spot, as the Irish would have a top-8 win and loss, and didn’t get caught up in a tough Midshipmen team that is hard to prepare for. You’ll have to think finishing the season at 11-1 would guarantee a bid, considering the new rules with Notre Dame’s ranking it’s a forgone conclusion.

Beat BYU, Navy and then Miami

A clean sweep might not put Notre Dame No. 1, but a first-round bye would be the result. It’s more than plausible that an undefeated SEC or Big Ten team would be the top seed, but if they all end up with a loss, the Irish would be the logical choice to take the spot. This is assuming there isn’t a slip up along the way, but Notre Dame is more talented than its final three opponents in Boston College, SMU and Syracuse.

Lose to BYU, Miami but beat Navy

Navy is tough, but I don’t think there’s much of a chance that they beat the Irish. BYU and Miami could, as this is clearly the worst-case scenario. The same feelings that we had last year would be stirring in everyone’s head, and the chatter of being overrated will flood social media. Close losses would obviously look much better, but they’d still be losses. This could potentially push Notre Dame out of the picture once again, and more agony in South Bend.

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This article originally appeared on Fighting Irish Wire: Why Notre Dame’s 2026 season will be decided over the next three games

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