Why Ole Miss football avoiding SEC Championship Game may be best for CFP hopes
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OXFORD − Ole Miss football has a chance to win its first SEC title since 1963, but a trip to the SEC Championship Game may not be best for the Rebels’ College Football Playoff hopes.
Coach Lane Kiffin’s Rebels (8-1, 5-1 SEC) are No. 6 in the first set of CFP rankings released Nov. 4. It’s a good position. Teams seeded Nos. 5-8 will host a CFP first-round game.
Ole Miss would host Virginia (8-1, 5-1 ACC) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, according to the first bracket release. The Cavaliers are No. 14 in the CFP rankings but would be bumped up to No. 11 because of their status as the highest-ranked team in the ACC.
A berth in the SEC Championship Game could shake up that good position. It’s shaping up to be a game with risk and reward.
As the schedule sits, the Rebels will be favored to win each of their final three regular season games. Ole Miss is set to face The Citadel (4-5, 3-3 SoCon) on Nov. 8 (noon, SEC Network+), Florida (3-5, 2-3 SEC) and Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4 SEC), so finishing the season at 11-1 would seem to guarantee Ole Miss a home playoff game at worst.
It’s possible 11-1 Ole Miss could even get a top-four seed and first-round bye without making the SEC Championship Game, depending on how far the SEC and Big Ten Championship Game losers fall.
What happens if Ole Miss makes the SEC Championship Game?
A trip to the SEC Championship Game comes with a possibility of Ole Miss finishing 11-2. That loss could knock the Rebels far enough down in the rankings that they wouldn’t host a first-round game or possibly would miss the 12-team playoff.
But a win in the SEC Championship would likely clinch a first-round bye.
“There’s a lot to that (making the SEC Championship Game), but it would be exciting to be in it as well,” Kiffin said Nov. 3. “There’s issues with it also.”
Ole Miss has never played in the SEC Championship Game.
There are no divisions in the SEC. The top two teams in the standings will play in Atlanta on Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Three SEC teams are ranked ahead of Ole Miss in the CFP rankings. Texas A&M is No. 3, Alabama is No. 4 and Georgia is No. 5.
Because the Aggies (8-0, 5-0) and Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0) are undefeated in SEC play, the Rebels are on the outside looking in at the SEC Championship Game along with Georgia (7-1, 5-1) and Texas (7-2, 4-1).
No. 1 Ohio State (8-0, 5-0) and No. 2 Indiana (9-0, 6-0) have the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Kiffin also said playing in the game also comes with injury risk. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck was injured in the 2024 SEC Championship Game against Texas.
“I said that a year ago,” Kiffin said. “There’s some concerns about if you have to play an extra game if you have the playoffs after that. Look at the team that played and lost their quarterback.”
Like his approach to Florida and LSU job rumors, Kiffin remained focused on the regular season.
“We’ve got a long ways to go,” Kiffin said. “If somehow we were a part of that, if we were in the SEC Championship, that would be amazing for our program that’s never been in it. We never finished first when there used to be six (teams) on one side.”
Sam Hutchens covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at Shutchens@gannett.com or reach him on X at @Sam_Hutchens_
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Why Ole Miss football may want to avoid SEC Championship Game
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