Will Auburn Football Be Bowl Eligible After Loss to Tennessee?
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Six wins.
It's a feat that has evaded the Auburn Tigers for far too many years in a row at this point, as the Tigers have not so much as made a bowl game since 2023, and they have not won a bowl game since 2018.
Alex Golesh promised results, and many expected the Tigers to find their first bowl game in what feels like an eternity this season, but now, those hopes are looking a little shaky with the Tigers' remaining schedule.
For reference, the Tigers are 3-2 on the season, needing just three more wins to secure bowl eligibility and start the Golesh era on an improvement from the failed seasons of yesteryear. Early ESPN predictions see the Tigers as having a 99% chance to beat Samford and an 85.2% chance to beat Arkansas, which would make five wins.
Five wins is not the difficult part, though; plenty of Tiger teams have gone 5-7 over the past few seasons. No, the issue is the sixth win, and the Tigers do not have another favored matchup this season, meaning they will need to upset a team if they want to see a bowl game.
Golesh's squad is on a bye this week, so they will have some time to get the kinks worked out in their game plan, but after that comes a matchup with the currently ranked No. 2 team in the land: the Georgia Bulldogs. The Tigers have just an 11.3% chance to win that matchup, according to ESPN's FPI, so there's not a lot of help there in terms of predicting bowl eligibility.
Then, the Tigers will take on LSU with the added advantage of playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium, an aspect that may need to prove to be the difference in a game that the Tigers have just a 28.9% chance to win.
Interestingly, the Tigers are bigger favorites in their following matchup with Ole Miss, who beat LSU earlier this season, as ESPN's FPI gives Auburn a 41.2% chance to beat Pete Golding's squad in Oxford. This will be a night-game matchup on Halloween, though, so the Tigers will need to overcome significant pressure from the crowd, something they struggled with against Tennessee.
After that, the Tigers get Arkansas before moving to Starkville to take on the once red-hot Mississippi State Bulldogs, who were trounced by Alabama this past weekend. According to ESPN's FPI, this game has the best odds for the Tigers, as Golesh's squad is listed with a 45.7% chance to win.
After a tune-up against Samford, the Tigers will wrap up their season in Bryant-Denny Stadium against their rival Alabama Crimson Tide, but ESPN lists Auburn with an 11.6% chance to win, so some Iron Bowl magic may be necessary to clinch bowl eligibility if all else fails.
The Tigers certainly do not have an easy path to bowl eligibility, but there's a reason that two leading ESPN analysts believe the Tigers will make a bowl game this season. The Tigers need just one hallmark game against a top-level opponent, and sealing a win would essentially secure bowl eligibility for the first time since 2023.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/auburn as Will Auburn Football Be Bowl Eligible After Loss to Tennessee?.
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