Will UNC’s defense struggle this weekend against Clemson?
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Slept on it tries to get some distance from the insta-reactions that dominate social media. Sifting through the season results so far, we take a look at what’s working, what might be a problem down the road, and what we learned about some of the teams on our schedule.
That’s impressive: defense has real teeth
No scores for you! UNC is allowing 6.5 points per game so far. That’s tied for fifth in the nation at the moment, and the metrics think the strength of schedule so far lies somewhere in the 30s. TCU scored 63 against Grambling on Saturday, and ETSU averaged 42.5 points in its two earlier games. Yes, two of those games were against FCS opponents, and one was against a Division II opponent.
Reminder from last week: Last time a defense held a Sonny Dykes offense to 10 points or less was Oct. 21, 2023, against 18th ranked Kansas State. While this defense has clear room for improvement (see below), it has been really impressive so far with respect to the bottom line.
Defensive line depth: Coming into the season, UNC needed to find someone to complement Melkart Abou Jaoude in backfield disruption. Against TCU, Xavier Lewis raised his hand. Against ETSU, Melkart sat out with a hand injury, and edge Jaylen Harvey filled those shoes admirably. Harvey helped force UNC’s first interception of the season with a quick pressure on ETSU’s QB, and Harvey added two sacks before a minor ankle injury ended his afternoon. The defensive line has established itself as the team’s best position group and a unit capable of controlling a game. Expect Belichick to lean heavily on this group in his game plans moving forward.
That’s concerning: UNC’s already -14 minutes in time of possession
Wondering why UNC only scored 35 points on a team that gave up 49 to Campbell?
Time of possession has only minor correlation with wins and losses, which is a big reason the various metrics out there don’t pay much attention to it. Other issues (such as points allowed, see above) factor far more prominently in outcomes. That said, TCU had a six minutetime of possession advantageand ran 71 plays to UNC’s 57. In the rain, first game in a new offense, Edwards playing live football again after sitting out last season — the result had enough asterisks to defer judgement while awaiting more data.
Well, ETSU yesterday had an eight minute advantage and ran 67 plays to UNC’s 53. Rain remained a factor, and UNC had some explosive plays and short fields to turn two of its first half touchdown drives into quick work. On the other hand, UNC’s offense had two three and outs in the first half, and UNC’s defense allowed ETSU to hold the ball for 20 minutes in the first half alone.
Allowing opponents to run 14 more offensive plays a game gives the opponent more opportunities to score. Doing that every game stresses defensive depth. So far this season, the defense has been on the field 14 more minutes than the offense, an entire quarter of football. Two key defensive players, Abou Jaoude and Harvey, are already dealing with injuries.
That’s concerning: UNC’s defense so far has been inefficient on third downs, just like last year
Last year’s defense was one of the worst in the country on third and fourth downs, worse than even some of Gene Chizik’s “finer” efforts. Losing third and fourth downs gives opponents an extra set of downs, four more chances to hit a big play or at least keep UNC’s offense off the field. This year, UNC on third down appears to be picking up where it left off. ETSU went 8-16 on third downs, the main reason it controlled the clock and held UNC to 35 points.
UNC in 2026 has allowed 32 third down attempts, which ranks 110th in the country. It’s allowed opponents to convert 15 of them, a 47% rate that ranks 121st in the country. Given the two opponents, one of which was missing its best player on offense and the other an average FCS squad, that’s a problem. The schedule from this point forward gets tougher and opponent offenses (Clemson excepted, see below) get better, so giving them an extra set of downs every half isn’t advisable.
What do the metrics think about UNC?
Metrics look at the factors that over the years correlate the most with winning football games (efficiencies) and tend to discount things don’t (lucky bounces). Metrics don’t get the final word on how good or bad a team (or unit) might be, but metrics complement (and sometimes correct) our eye test. Each of these systems weights variables differently, and all of them suffer from small sample size at the moment. That said…
ESPN’s FPI likes UNC the most, ranking UNC 42nd (+2 from last week). The offense checks in at 54th and the defense 28th nationally, while special teams comes in at 121st? FPI’s special teams formula hates missed field goals, and UNC’s missed two of its four so far this season.
SP+ has UNC at 51st nationally (-2 from last week). SP+ disagrees with FPI on the offense, ranking it 76th, and special teams, ranking it 33rd. SP+ worries more about field position in special teams than the field goal kicker or wet fields. On defense, SP+ sees what FPI sees, ranking it 27th.
FEI remains skeptical, ranking UNC 75th nationally (+1 from last week). FEI agrees with SP+ on the offense, ranking it 76th. However, FEI sees the defense quite differently from the other two, ranking it 68th. Simply put, FEI wonders more about the number of bites at the apple this defense gives opposing offenses. As far as special teams, FEI splits the difference between the other two, ranking that unit 68th.
Which one do you think might be the most accurate for UNC so far?
Looking ahead to Clemson
A week ago, the sportsbooks had Clemson as a 9.5 favorite, Now: 5.5. After watching Louisiana Tech play LSU much tougher than Clemson, and then watching Georgia Southern’s defense give Clemson fits all night, the books punted on Clemson. Given the three points Clemson gets for being at home, the books now see that game essentially as a coin flip.
Clemson’s offense this season is the worst Dabo’s ever fielded. Yards per play? 133rd nationally. Scoring efficiency? 86th. Both of Clemson’s QBs have been bad, posting collective QBRs around 15. For context, Gio Lopez ended last season around 50. They don’t run the ball well (2.92 yards per rush, 124th nationally), and they don’t pass well (5.3 yards per attempt, 129th nationally). Do those numbers resemble what UNC’s offense last year produced? Yes, they do.
Most tantalizing: Clemson after two games ranks dead last nationally in tackles for loss allowed. That’s Clemson’s biggest weakness facing UNC’s greatest strength, without an eraser at QB to turn a bad play into a good one. UNC’s defensive line could dominate this game in much the same way LSU’s did.
Caveat: UNC allowed ETSU to nibble the edges with quick passes, spreading the defense out horizontally and then converting third and short with runs up the middle. That in turn allowed ETSU to control clock. Can Clemson do the same with much superior athletes on the perimeter? Only if UNC lets them.
UNC’s going to open the season 3-0. Called it.
Quick thoughts on future opponents based on what we saw last weekend
Notre Dame (2-0): Sitting in the top three in all three metrics, Notre Dame looks as advertised and has won both its contests comfortably. At this time, the Irish don’t have any injuries that would appear to affect their trip to Chapel Hill. (L)
Pittsburgh (2-0): Managed only a field goal and touchdown on offense against UCF, but that was enough. Pitt may be offensively challenged after all. (Toss Up)
Duke (2-0): Duke survived 11 penalties for 112 yards on the road against Illinois, which says something about their resiliency if not discipline. Nate Shepard had almost 200 yards rushing and receiving, as well as three touchdowns. He’ll be a handful. (Toss Up)
Syracuse (1-1): After week one, everyone said Steve Angeli was back and as good as ever. In week two at home against Cal, Angeli completed less than half his passes (24-49) and threw three interceptions, the last one a pick six that put Cal ahead for good. He threw a couple of more that could have resulted in points for Cal as well. (W)
Miami (2-0): At a quick glance, it looks like Miami has nothing but speed bumps between now and a November 7 showdown with Notre Dame. Maybe UNC catches the ‘Canes feeling fat and happy as they look ahead to the Irish. Something to hang a hope on. (L)
Connecticut (1-1): Lost 38-14 to Maryland, gaining only 223 yards of offense. (W)
Louisville (1-1): The Cardinals walloped Villanova, a FCS program that often contends for a playoff spot. After playing Ole Miss to the wire in week one’s opener in Nashville, next weekend’s game against SMU will give one of those two teams a lead in the race to meet Miami in the ACC title game. (L)
Virginia (2-0): Stomped Norfolk State after stomping NC State. Their OL against our DL should be a compelling showdown. (L)
NC State (1-1): Took out their embarrassment from the Virginia game against Richmond, romping 73-0. Until they get through a P4 game without getting pushed around like they did against Virginia, they remain an embarrassment (W)
With Clemson collapsing and Syracuse looking bad at home against Cal, the schedule looks somewhat easier than preseason projections. In the ten remaining games, that’s four projected wins, two projected toss-ups, and four projected losses. Don’t look now, but 7-5 is definitely on the table, while 8-4 becomes possible with a couple of lucky bounces.
Two weeks into the season, knowing what we know about UNC and our opponents, how are you feeling? Let us know in the comments.
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