Would going Independent make sense for Florida State?
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With the month of July filled with conference media days, as the ACC wrapped up in Charlotte last week and the SEC begins in Tampa this week, conference expansion and realignment has once again taken center stage.
On Monday, Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger released an article, available here, updating where Congress stands on passing the Protect College Sports Act. One of the most interesting pieces of information in the piece was about conference realignment, which Dellenger explained further in a tweet.
While this situation is incredibly fluid, the Tomahawk Nation team considered whether being independent for 5 years before joining a conference would make sense for the program. FSU was independent from 1951-1991 before joining the ACC in 1992, and leaving the ACC could reignite a fan base that grew up without a conference. However, the move would not come without risk — and financial cost — as scheduling would become incredibly difficult with the SEC and Big 10 moving to nine conference games, along with the fees to get in and out of conferences.
Create your own 12-game schedule, who stays, who goes, and who is new?
Jon Loesche: If we’re fantasy booking this Florida, Miami, and Clemson remain annual opponents. Notre Dame becomes a permanent fixture. Florida stays on Thanksgiving weekend. Miami gets the final weekend of October. Clemson and Notre Dame rotate between mid October and mid November.
I would also want a high profile season opener against an SEC or Big Ten opponent, then fill out the rest of the schedule with schools like as UCF, USF, West Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
The realistic version is much less glamorous. Florida and whichever other schools leave the ACC would be the only annual games that survive. The remaining dates would have to be filled largely by Big 12 and American programs, along with other in state schools. Even fantasy scheduling gets dragged back into television contracts and conference politics.
NoleThruandThru: In a situation where both conferences are capped at 19, I’d love to see this play out: Florida State, Miami, UNC, and Clemson leave for the Big Ten and SEC (FSU and Miami to the Big Ten and then you could interchange UNC/Clemson for either of the two conferences, though I know the SEC has long coveted the Tar Heels). FSU would play those three each year along with Florida and Notre Dame. You could then rotate five more games each year between the teams remaining/moved up into the ACC (like UCF, USF, Georgia Southern, Navy, etc). Alternate FAU and FIU each year for the 11th game and schedule a cupcake for the 12th.
Matt Minnick: I might be in the minority with this opinion, but FSU might be able to create an independent schedule that nicely balances marquee matchups with winnable games, all while keeping costs fairly low. This would be my structure:
— Two programs I’d play every year: Miami and UF, one home and one away. No explanation needed.
— Four other “big brand” schools rotating semi-annually from a pool of roughly 10. Two home, two away.
— Five games against regional G5 squads. Strive for 5 at home, but an occasional roadie.
— One big money neutral site game
Here’s my 12-game 2029 schedule:
- Georgia Southern
- N – Texas Tech in Atlanta
- At Auburn
- Troy
- Georgia Tech
- Tulane
- Miami
- At TCU
- South Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Western Kentucky
- At UF
Would going independent make sense for Florida State? What do you see as the biggest risks?
Jon Loesche: Going independent only makes sense if the PCSA passes in its current form and takes effect before Florida State can leave the ACC. If five years in independent purgatory becomes the only viable path to eventually joining the SEC or Big Ten, then FSU may have no better option.
The risks are obvious. Notre Dame is a full ACC member that is allowed to opt out of football. The ACC agreement that supplies five football games per season. Add annual or recurring series with Navy, Stanford, and previously USC, and a significant portion of its schedule is already built. It proudly promotes its independence while relying on what amounts to a partial conference schedule and institutional support that would not automatically exist for Florida State.
FSU would need to find a home for nearly every other sport, construct a viable football schedule, secure sufficient media revenue, preserve postseason access, and absorb a major financial shortfall. It would also have to do all of that without any guarantee that surviving five years as an independent would actually result in an invitation from the SEC or Big Ten. That may be the biggest risk of all.
NoleThruandThru: Assuming this thing passes as written (a massive assumption), if you have a guarantee from the Big Ten or SEC that you’ll be in after five years, then you do it. The long term gains outweigh the short term costs. If you don’t have that guarantee, you really need to weigh your options… especially with open talk about the SEC seceding from the NCAA.
Matt Minnick: Obviously the biggest risks are a) finding teams to fill out a competitive schedule, 2) finding a TV partner, and d) losing an autobid into the playoffs. But with the playoff field likely expanding to 24 teams, a and d both seem to be mitigated. And with so many streaming services looking to get into the live sports business, now more than ever feels like a “strike while the iron is hot” sort of moment. FSU’s historical media ratings would make a compelling pitch to a company like Netflix, HBO, or YouTube. Additionally, with the Seminoles’ roots so deeply embedded in the independent spirit, I could see a number of older, wealthy donors willing to up their contributions in order to make it work (not to mention sticking it to the ACC in the process).
Do you trust this administration to navigate the uncertain waters of conference independence?
Jon Loesche: No. But frankly no school is. Notre Dame threw in the towel on being a true scheduling independent with the ACC deal in 2014. However, the ACC would never give FSU a similar deal. FSU would have to find a new conference home for nearly the entire athletic department while also building a football schedule, securing a television deal, preserving postseason access, and replacing lost ACC revenue. That’s not even a gamble. That’s choosing the path where you still have a 20% chance to remain nationally relevant vs. 0% that comes with being frozen in the ACC.
NoleThruandThru: I think the university president is doing a fine job bettering the institution and moving FSU closer to AAU status and is taking some unnecessary criticism from the fan base. The athletic director and the BOT, though? Yikes. I’d worry that Alford would accidentally steer FSU into the Big South instead of the Big Ten. It’s clear that FSU needs a more strategic and futuristic leader, but my goodness, what an opportunity for a new AD who loves challenges to lead that effort at a place like Florida State.
Matt Minnick: Not at all. In fact, I’d be concerned they actively make it worse.
Break out the crystal ball, by 2030 where do you see Florida State in terms of conference realignment?
Jon Loesche: In a Power 2 conference or whatever form a breakaway league ends up taking. However, if they have to break the glass on the escape hatch before 2030 they’ll likely be significantly poorer due to having to cut a much larger check to the ACC.
NoleThruandThru: With a seat at the highest table. No matter how bad things have gotten recently or how pessimistic the fan base has become, Florida State is still an upper-tier program with everything needed to be successful. Big Ten and SEC leadership recognizes that. FSU would be among the first three schools taken if there was a “draft” for B1G/SEC membership. Give FSU a level annual financial playing field that other B1G/SEC teams have, and they’ll be right back in the mix for sustained relevancy.
Matt Minnick: Trick question. FSU’s non-revenue sports (essentially all sports except football and basketball) are all playing in a regional conference much like the ACC of 5 years ago. Except for Beach Volleyball, which is still in the Big 12. Basketball is in the SEC. The football landscape has drastically changed with 64 programs breaking away from the current NCAA landscape, forming 8 divisions of 8 teams where the winner of each division plus 8 wildcards all advance to a 16 team “Power League Playoffs.” FSU is in the Southeast Division.
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