You’re Nuts: What will be the biggest surprise from Wednesday night’s Cotton Bowl?

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Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.

In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides on one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.

Today’s Question: What will be the biggest surprise from Wednesday night’s Cotton Bowl?

Jami’s Take: Ohio State’s defense will allow fewer than 10 first downs

When Ohio State’s No. 1 defense faces down Miami’s No. 35 offense in the Cotton Bowl, many experts, including Urban Meyer, have predicted Miami won’t make it into the end zone. I’ll take it a step further: I think Miami is going to be so rattled by the Silver Bullets that they struggle to move the chains. 

Ohio State’s defense has held its opponents to fewer first downs than any other team in the country, allowing an average of just 13.0 per game, and that was before they got angry. Now, they’re hot off their Big Ten Championship loss, and several players have gone on the record to say they were angry about their performance against Indiana. 

Rage takes two forms in college football, the first a detrimental, untethered sloppiness, while the second is a more calculated, quiet rage that does damage to everyone in its path. We won’t really know which of the two the Buckeyes are channeling until they take the field Wednesday, but if history is any indication, Ohio State looks poised to unleash a storm on the Hurricanes. 

The ‘Canes enter the Cotton Bowl with an average of 22 first downs per game, on the lower end of the typical range of between 20-30. It’s worth mentioning that first downs are a nuanced metric: Teams that score easily on long plays will get down the field faster and with fewer first downs, so a lower number isn’t always an indication of poor performance. 

Generally speaking, though, first downs are an important piece of time of possession and clock management—both important in a playoff game—and indicate consistent offensive efficiency. Against this Buckeye defense, I’m not sure this is something Miami will be able to manage.

In Miami’s case, 157 of their first downs this year have been passing first downs, compared to 117 on the ground. Though Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. was the star of the show in their first round playoff victory, Miami has struggled with an inconsistent run game this year, relying primarily on quarterback Carson Beck and star wide receiver Malachi Toney. 

Beck is a talented football player, if somewhat prone to mistakes when he gets rattled. 

Unfortunately for him, the Ohio State defense really excels at forcing mistakes even against some of the most consistent offenses. Even more unfortunately for the Canes, this Buckeye defense has something to prove. 

One of the Silver Bullets’ strengths this season has been forcing their opponents out of their typical offensive rhythm. Given their hunger coming off the loss to Indiana, I don’t expect Miami to have much breathing room. Look to the Silver Bullets to put pressure on Beck early on, forcing him to think fast and act faster. 

If they can get under Beck’s skin early on, it could be hard for Miami to stay on the field. The less time Miami stays on the field, the fewer first downs they’re likely to have, especially if Beck is making mistakes—throwing incompletions, taking sacks for a loss, or even throwing interceptions. While ten first downs is a surprisingly low threshold, I’m predicting Ohio State to dominate so wholly defensively that Beck runs out of options early. 

Matt’s Take: Ohio State’s offense will put up 30+ points

The Miami hurricane defense is elite, no doubt about it, and they have been even better since their Nov. 1 loss to SMU, giving up an average of less than 9 points in their last five games. Now, granted, those games were against some pretty underwhelming ACC teams and a Texas A&M squad that was propped up by almost exclusively beating teams in the bottom half of the SEC.

I do believe that the Canes’ defensive line will cause problems for the semi-rebuilt Ohio State offensive line, which will presumably start Gabe VanSickle at right guard for the first time. But given the 25-day period that Ohio State has had to prepare for this game, I am confident in Ryan Day and company’s ability to fix and scheme around disadvantages.

What makes me even more confident is that for the first 13 days (from Selection Sunday to when Miami beat the Aggies), the Buckeyes could work a little bit on future opponent preparation, but had to primarily focus on themselves. For nearly two full weeks, the coaches and players were likely repping the areas where OSU was most deficient: red zone, short yardage, running game, while also allowing key playmakers like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to heal up from late-season injuries.

Then, for the next 12 days, the coaching staff has been able to take their Miami preparations into overdrive. Identifying any weaknesses that might exist in The U’s defensive armor and tailoring an offensive game plan to exploit them. I trust this coaching staff to come up with a script and a scheme to make the most out of the time off.

But really gives me the most belief that Ohio State will score more points than any Hurricane opponent has all season is the fact that Ryan Day is once again calling plays. While Brian Hartline has performed admirably in every aspect of his nine-year coaching tenure in Columbus, I believe that the combination of the extra time off to prepare and the head coach taking back play-calling responsibilities is going to lead to an electric offensive performance similar to what we saw in last year’s CFP.

Ohio State has been methodical and reserved on offense for most of this season, but the restrictor plate is coming off for the postseason, and that starts with a 4+ touchdown performance against Miami in the Cotton Bowl.

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