You’re Nuts: Which Big Ten team is a sleeper to make the CFP?

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Later this month, we will be watching college football. The season kicks off when North Carolina and TCU square off in Ireland, while the first Big Ten in action will be USC when they host San Jose State. With the season only weeks away, we are seeing preseason polls released, award watchlists revealed, and predictions for this year’s CFP participants being shared. Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana are common favorites to make this year’s playoff and are earning spots in the 12-team field in each of the last two seasons.

Back in the first year of the 12-team field, Indiana shocked the college football world when Curt Cignetti led the Hoosiers to the College Football Playoff in his first year as head coach at the coach. Is there another surprise in store for the CFP this season? If Indiana can do it, then why can’t another Big Ten school that has been a perennial loser or a program that has been stuck in the middle of the conference make the playoff? What if Bob Chesney is Cignetti 2.0? Chesney is now the head coach at UCLA after leading James Madison to the playoff last season.

Today we want you to call your shot and let us know which Big Ten team could be a sleeper to make this year’s College Football Playoff. Obviously you didn’t understand the assignment if you are picking Ohio State, Oregon, or Indiana. Everybody else is on the table since all the other teams in the conference have at least +250 odds to make the CFP. What will be interesting is to see if anyone wants to go on the record and pick Purdue to make the playoff, as they have the lowest odds of any team in the conference at +25000.

Today’s question: Which Big Ten team is a sleeper to make the College Football Playoff?

We’d love to hear your choices. Either respond to us on Twitter at @Landgrant33 or leave your choice in the comments.

Brett: Minnesota

It’s obvious why P.J. Fleck and Minnesota are in favor of an expanded College Football Playoff. At 24 teams, the Golden Gophers would have likely made the CFP a few times since 2021, as Fleck and the Golden Gophers have won at least eight games four times in those five seasons, while also winning all five bowl games they have played in. This isn’t even taking into account the 2019 season when Minnesota won 11 games and finished the season ranked 10th in the country.

One reason I’m high on the Golden Gophers this year is they have a manageable schedule. Minnesota’s toughest non-conference game is an extremely winnable game at home against Mississippi State. When you look at their Big Ten schedule, their toughest games are road contests at Washington, Indiana and Penn State. If they win two of those three, then they are in great shape to make the CFP. Michigan and Iowa are the most interesting home games the Golden Gophers have.

Minnesota returns a lot of talent on both sides of the football. Sophomore quarterback Drake Lindsey threw for nearly 2,400 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. Darius Taylor ran for at least 100 yards in four games last year and has run for at least 600 yards in each of his first three seasons at the school. Wide receivers Javon Tracy and Jalen Smith each had over 400 yards receiving last season, with Tracy hauling in a team-high six touchdowns.

On the defensive side of the football, Minnesota has a stud at defensive end in Anthony Smith, who racked up 12.5 sacks last year. Karter Menz also returns on the other end of the defensive line after a 6.5-sack season in 2025. Linebacker Maverick Baranowski led the team with 103 tackles, and cornerback John Nestor picked off a team-high six interceptions. If only safety Koi Perich had stuck around, then the defense would have had a chance to be really special. Even without Perich, the defense of the Golden Gophers will be tough to crack.

Matt’s answer: Iowa Hawkeyes

Honestly, in the 12-team playoff era, it is tough to really determine who is a “sleeper” in the greatest conference in college football. Obviously, I’m not picking Ohio State, Oregon, or Indiana, but let’s look at the cleveland.com Big Ten preseason media poll to see who would qualify.

1) Ohio State 
2) Oregon 
3) Indiana 
4) USC
5) Michigan
6) Penn State
7) Washington
8) Iowa
9) Illinois
10) Minnesota
11) Nebraska
12) Wisconsin
13) UCLA
14) Northwestern
15) Maryland
16) Michigan State
17) Rutgers
18) Purdue

So I’m thinking anyone outside of the top 1/3 of the predictions. Brett took the Golden Gophers, so I think I am going to take the Iowa Hawkeyes. Regardless of year or roster or schedule, any college football fan knows that Iowa will play a style of football that will be painful to watch, but will be effective more often than not.

As much as we like to joke about Kirk Ferentz’s offenses dragging college football back into the 1950s, they are always a legitimate contender for a dark-horse Big Ten title run, and therefore for the CFP as well.

Iowa went 9-4 last year, but that record doesn’t really tell the whole story. All four of the Hawkeyes’ losses came against ranked teams — Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC — and they lost those four games by a combined 14 points. They were within five points of eventual national champion Indiana and lost to Oregon 18-16 on a last-second field goal. So, we aren’t talking about a mediocre team that needs to magically become something completely different. We are talking about a team that was already a handful of plays away from having a markedly different season.

And, because this is Iowa, you know where the foundation is going to come from.

Phil Parker’s defense finished eighth nationally in scoring defense last season, allowing just 15.6 points per game, and ninth in total defense at 280.4 yards per game. Admittedly, there is a significant amount of turnover on that side of the ball, with nine new starters expected, which is a pretty important caveat when I’m attempting to sell you on a team whose entire personality is defense.

But at this point, I’m willing to give Parker the benefit of the doubt. Iowa has been doing this for too long for me to assume that the Hawkeyes are suddenly going to forget how to play defense.

The bigger question — as it seemingly has been since the days of Hayden Fry — is whether Iowa can score enough points to make those normally sterling defensive efforts worthwhile.

There are still legitimate questions at quarterback, where Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski are competing for the job, but Tim Lester is now entering his third season as offensive coordinator, so perhaps things will start to click on that side of the ball.

Iowa also has preseason All-Big Ten-caliber linemen Kade Pieper and Trevor Lauck anchoring an offense that doesn’t need to suddenly become 2019 LSU. It just needs to be functional enough that the defense isn’t required to win games 10-7 every Saturday.

Then there is the schedule. Iowa has a brutal three-game stretch at Michigan, home against Ohio State, and at Washington. But after that, the Hawkeyes get Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska to close the season. If Iowa can survive September and early October at 4-2 — or somehow steal two of those three marquee conference games — suddenly 10-2 is very much on the table. That would clearly be good enough for a CFP berth, but I think depending on what wins they get, even 9-3 might be good enough.

The Hawkeyes will open the season at No. 22 in the Coaches Poll, so calling them a sleeper for playoff contention is a bit suspect, but I do believe they have a shot to crash the party. Now, I don’t think Iowa is going to win the Big Ten, and I certainly wouldn’t pick the Hawkeyes to beat Ohio State in Kinnick Stadium on Oct. 3, but they don’t need to do either of those things to make the playoff.

They just need to keep doing what Iowa always does: make games ugly, drag opponents into the mud, win a couple of games that they probably shouldn’t, and somehow arrive in November with a record that forces everyone to start taking them seriously.

It might not be pretty, but when has that ever stopped Iowa?

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