2025 Week 12 Preview: North Texas Mean Green @ UAB Blazers

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2025 Week 12 Preview: North Texas Mean Green @ UAB Blazers

Game notes

  • Time and date: Saturday, November 15 at 2:00 p.m. ET
  • Network: ESPN+
  • Location: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, AL
  • Spread: North Texas (-17.5)
  • Over/under: 68.5
  • All-time series: North Texas leads, 6-2
  • Last meeting: North Texas 45, UAB 42 — November 25, 2023
  • Current streak: North Texas, 1 (2023)

Setting the scene

North Texas and UAB joined the American Conference at the same time in 2023, simultaneously transitioning from Conference USA. Both programs entered the conference with new head coaches, with North Texas bringing Eric Morris to the fold and UAB hiring Trent Dilfer. Neither team seamlessly adjusted to the new league, missing out on bowl eligibility in both 2023 and 2024.

But in 2025, the roads greatly diverged. North Texas (8-1, 4-1 American) is a force to be reckoned with and lies on the fringe of the rankings, with a potential College Football Playoff appearance waiting if it sustaining its winning ways. UAB (3-6, 1-4 American) surprisingly has more ranked wins than the Mean Green this year, but other than an upset over Memphis, it’s been a tumultuous season for the Blazers, headlined by Dilfer’s mid-October firing.

UAB will see if it has another home upset in it, while North Texas aims to improve to 4-0 on the road this season.

North Texas Mean Green outlook

North Texas fields the nation’s second-leading scoring offense at 44.4 points per game, and that’s a testament to this roster Eric Morris built. No, the Mean Green aren’t thriving on established sixth-year seniors hitting their stride. Rather, the two premier skill position players of this offense hold freshman status.

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is a redshirt freshman with a well-documented story. In his first full season as a starting quarterback since ninth grade, Mestemaker belongs in Heisman Trophy conversations. He is ninth in the FBS with 2,701 passing yards, delivering impressive outputs on a completion rate of 69.0. Mestemaker has 21 touchdowns to four interceptions and even has a 600-yard game under his belt. The stats are impressive, but the eye test might be even more eyebrow-raising for the young quarterback that has led North Texas’ first winning season since 2018.

Then there’s true freshman Caleb Hawkins at running back. Hawkins won Doak Walker National Running Back of the Week honors in his last outing after exploding for 197 yards and four touchdowns. He averages 6.1 yards per rush on the season and has three 130+ yard games, in addition to thriving as the team’s fourth-most frequented receiver.

Mestemaker involves a slew of options in the receiving game. Wyatt Young is the leader in all the major categories, but Landon Sides, Cameron Dorner, Miles Coleman, and others play a significant role in promoting the passing offense with the sixth highest per game output in college football.

The Mean Green defense is still a work-in-progress, but compared to previous 2020s North Texas defenses, this is the team’s most important breakthrough. First-year coordinator Skyler Cassity assembled an effective group that creates takeaways like it’s their air to breathe. The Mean Green are tied for fourth in the FBS with 20 on the season, checking in at a +10 in the turnover department — losing the South Florida game with a rare 5-3 disadvantage.

The three leading tacklers are all linebackers — Trey Fields, Ethan Wesloski, and Shane Whitter — who are the heart and soul of this defense. These linebackers did an excellent job of limiting Navy’s FBS-best rushing attack. Another key performer from that statement November win was safety Quinton Hammonds, who took home Bronko Nagurski National Defensive Player of the Week honors after picking off two passes in that 31-17 victory.

UAB Blazers outlook

UAB is on the brink of missing a bowl game for the third-consecutive year. Everything clicked for this Blazers team on a fateful October afternoon when it upset Memphis 31-24, but the UAB from Oct. 18 has not been present on the gridiron since.

The Blazers subsequently dropped a 38-19 ballgame to UConn, decimated by a 3-0 loss in the turnover battle. Then last week, they were shut out in the second half in a 24-17 defeat at Rice, struggling to move the ball after a commendable first half. So where does UAB go from here as heavy underdogs?

Interim head coach Alex Mortensen must first decide his quarterback. Jalen Kitna earned the starting nod for the first half of the year, but Ryder Burton stepped in for the Memphis game and has taken the majority of reps since, finishing 18-of-34 with 213 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions last Saturday in Houston.

UAB has enjoyed success with both quarterbacks and currently ranks 24th in the FBS in passing offense, registering 276 yards per game on an efficient 67.8 percent clip. One reason the aerial attack works well is the presence of wide receiver Iverson Hooks, who ranks second in the American in receptions (51), fourth in receiving yards (677), and third in touchdowns (6). Corri Milliner — who recently returned to the lineup after missing October — and BJ Hawkins Jr. complete a capable receiving corps in Birmingham.

The Blazers’ most significant issue in the passing game is protection, allowing 2.7 sacks per game. That offsets a considerable portion of the team’s rushing numbers, and the ground game is led by workhorse Jevon Jackson with a dose of the more explosive Solomon Beebe (7.3 yards per carry) on the side.

Despite failing to score in the second half last week, offense isn’t the reason UAB is 3-6. Defense is. The Blazers rank 131st in scoring defense and 120th in run defense, and they’ve only registered six takeaways through nine games. UAB is still in search of a premier pass rusher, as nobody on the team has more than 2.5 sacks to their name.

Linebacker Devin Hightower is one key cog on the unit as the leading tackler with 64 stops. The position group which should have the most strain on it vs. North Texas is the secondary, and the Blazers need some playmaking from Pierre Royster, a free safety with two of the team’s three interceptions on the year.

Prediction

When the 2nd-ranked scoring offense meets the 131st-ranked scoring defense, you can expect at least 40 points, and perhaps even a 50 burger. North Texas’ offense is versatile and effective, and the Mean Green possess a slew of advantages against a struggling UAB defense. The last two North Texas games saw a 608-yard passing performance from Drew Mestemaker and a 197-yard rushing performance by Caleb Hawkins, and one of them is bound to produce an eyebrow-raising stat-line in Birmingham.

UAB’s offense is skilled enough to generate some points on its own at home, but North Texas will still walk away with a dominant victory, securing its ninth win of the season and remaining near the top of the American title race.

Prediction: North Texas 51, UAB 21

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