2026 College Football Week 3 Best Bets: Five picks for Sept 19 including Ole Miss vs LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia

Week 3 will have drama and at the center of that drama, we all know who is involved — it's Lane Kififn! The last time he left a team and returned back to the venue as the opposing coach, Tennessee fans were throwing mustard, water, golf balls, shoes, and frankly, anything they can get their hands on. Well, Ole Miss you're up! Do your worst! No. 1 Texas has a letdown game on deck I'll break down and with Oklahoma taking on Georgia next weekend, both teams have quick starts on their minds.

Game odds are courtesy of DraftKings. Here are my five best bets for Week 3 in College Football. Best of luck!

#2 Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas: O/U 54.5

Last week, I faded Arkansas' first quarter team total Under 6.5 points at Utah and the Razorbacks didn't score. This week, they fly back to face what might be the best team in the country. Georgia is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings versus Arkansas and is 6-0 all-time in Fayetteville, Arkansas. That won't change today. Now, Georgia does have ranked Oklahoma on deck next, but Kirby Smart has been putting foots on necks going 2-0 ATS with 60 and 50-point wins.

Arkansas QB KJ Jackson went 14-of-34 for 139 passing yards against Utah and the team ran for 61 yards on 28 carries. Utah only sacked Jackson once and forced one interception. Georgia's defense could make those look like rookie numbers. Arkansas has the 124th-rated offense per PFF, while Georgia has the No. 1 ranked defense.

The Bulldogs opened SEC play at Tennessee last year and got out to a 21-7 deficit in the first quarter before coming back to win in OT (44-41). Georgia will not want to repeat that start and they'll also want to rest a little late with the Sooners next. I like Georgia to cover the first quarter spread of -6.5 at Arkansas. I don't know how you anyone can trust this Arkansas team.

Pick: Georgia 1Q -6.5 (1 unit)

#7 LSU (-3) at #8 Ole Miss: O/U 58.5

The Lane Kiffin Bowl will be must-see TV. The quarterback battle, the talent around them, the defenses — all set up for a hard-hitting matchup that could produce plenty of points behind two all-conference quarterbacks. LSU was 4-7 ATS as a road favorite last year, and Ole Miss has been terrific ATS and to the Over numbers as an underdog and home underdog since 2021, but that was all with Kiffin!

It’s true, Kiffin knows this Ole Miss team more than anyone outside the program and coached a lot of these players, so LSU has the edge. Plus, from a passing standpoint, LSU is a top five passing attack in advanced analytics, but they’ve faced Clemson and Louisiana Tech. On the other hand, Ole Miss comes in near the bottom of the P4 in defensive passing efficiency, but their opponents have been in trailing states, whereas that’s all Louisville and Charlotte could do to hang around.

Turnovers may come into play, and if they do, I think Ole Miss has less than LSU. I trust Trinidad Chambliss more than Sam Leavitt, and I actually think the home crowd is worth more than it’s usually worth for this game. Leavitt has four interceptions in the early season, and all four came in the first half. Leavitt tossed a pick on the second game versus Clemson, had three in the first half versus Louisiana Tech, and one of those went 100 yards the other way for a touchdown. Momentum will be crucial in this game, and I don’t believe LSU can survive losing that battle. Getting Ole Miss at +3 sounds good to me.

Pick: Ole Miss +3 (1 unit)

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New Mexico at #24 Oklahoma (-21.5): O/U 45.5

New Mexico has played Central Michigan and Mercyhurst so far, blowing them out by 31 and 63 points. In Week 3, the Lobos run into their toughest test of the season – an aggravated Oklahoma team. This is not only the solo ranked game for New Mexico, but easily the most talented team the Lobos will play. Oklahoma is coming off a 17-10 loss at Michigan and faces #2 Georgia next. There is no incentive for Oklahoma to go all out against New Mexico for four quarters, but getting in with an early double-digit lead to pull your starters late is the goal.

I like Oklahoma to cover the first quarter spread of -6.5. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS on the -6.5 first-quarter spread dating back to 2024 when they are at home and versus a non-conference opponent in the regular season. Oklahoma had scored a touchdown in 11-straight regular season non-conference games up until their loss at Michigan.

New Mexico scored 7 points in both first quarters of their Week 1 and 2 games, but the Lobos are listed at -180 to go Under 0.5 points in the first quarter. Oklahoma rolls early and slows down the game in the second half. Give me the Sooners 1Q -6.5 at -120 odds.

Pick: Oklahoma 1Q -6.5 (1 unit)

UTSA at #1 Texas (-30.5): O/U 58.5

Texas is coming off an epic 20-point fourth quarter comeback win over No. 1 Ohio State and somehow have to turn the page to UTSA without any distractions. On the other side of this UTSA game, Texas goes to Tennessee to open SEC play ahead of three ranked matchups over the next four games. It's likely the Longhorns are overlooking UTSA and rightfully so.

The Road Runners best attributes on defense is their ability to garner pressure (Texas #1 in pass blocking) and the secondary (Texas WRs rank 73rd in PFF). UTSA held Texas State to 192 passing yards and two interceptions, but allowed 289 yards on the ground. UTSA gave up 177 rushing yards in the season opener, so it's obvious Texas will just hit the ground running, quite literally against UTSA. If the Road Runners can make enough stops through the air and are physical enough up front, they can cover the big +30.5, but I like Texas to go under their team total of 44.5 as my best bet.

Pick: Texas Team Total Under 44.5 (1 unit)

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Georgia State at UCF (-17.5): O/U 49.5

UCF's offense has been downgraded in the market after the disastrous 12-7 loss to Pitt, while the defense was upgraded. However, the weather was crappy in the loss as the two sides combined for 24 first downs and 9-of-31 on third downs. The Golden Knights were held to 20 rushing yards on 22 carries a week after running for 360 yards and seven touchdowns on Bethune-Cookman. UCF QB Alonzo Barnett is a dual-threat and will have to make plays for a Knights team that has scored at least 27 points in five out of the last eight home games.

Georgia State is 2-0 and the offense has put up 563 and 483 yards so far and they are catching +17.5 points here. You could argue the Panthers have the better quarterback in Cameran Brown (520 yards, 3 TDs), but the overall talent could be a difference.

There's good weather and avenues for both teams to score. Georgia State's passing offense ranks 7th at PFF, while the UCF coverage is ranked 76th. The Georgia State rush defense ranks 39th and tackling is 67th, while UCF is 42nd in rushing offense. I will take the Over 49.5 points up to 50.5.

Pick: UCF vs Georgia State Over 49.5

Week 3 Picks

1 unit: Ole Miss +3 (-112)
1 unit: Oklahoma 1Q -6.5 (-120)
1 unit: Georgia 1Q -6.5 (-130)
1 unit: Texas Team Total Under 44.5 (-115)
1 unit: UCF vs Georgia State Over 49.5 (-115)

Season Record: 15-11 +2.42 units
Week 0 Record: 1-2 -1.57 units
Week 1 Record: 6-5 +0.99 units
Week 2 Record: 3-4 -1.0 unit
Week 3 Record: 4-0 +4 units

Week 3 Articles

Heisman Rankings
Top 25 Poll
SMU vs Louisville Game Preview
Miami vs Wake Forest Game Preview
Texas Tech vs Houston Game Preview
Notre Dame vs Michigan State Game Preview
LSU vs Ole Miss Game Preview

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