2026 Heisman Trophy betting odds: Favorites, contenders, future picks for Week 1 including Smith, Mensah

We have one week in the books and not much has changed in the Heisman Poll since then, but we do have one newcomer and some notes if you're thinking of making a wager on the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner.

All betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings. It’s worth noting that odds do not impact my order, but are noteworthy. Let’s get started!

1. Arch Manning, Texas Longhorns (+750)
2025 Stats: 3,163 pass yds | 36 total TDs | 399 rush yds | 61.4 comp%
Week 1: Vs Texas State — Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

Arch Manning will get to shake off the rust against a Texas State team that allowed 31.2 points per game last year (T-104th). A comparable opponent would be San Jose State, who Manning put up five total touchdowns against last season and 318 yards. Manning's Heisman campaign really doesn't start until Week 2 when Ohio State comes to town, but then again, his Heisman case might end there too.

2. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes (+1400)
2025 Stats: 87 rec | 1,243 yds | 13 total TDs | 14.3 ypc
Week 1: Vs Ball State — Saturday at 12:30 PM ET

In 2024, Jeremiah Smith posted six receptions for 92 yards and two touchdowns against Akron. In 2025 versus Texas, Smith again caught six passes, but totaled 43 yards and didn't score in a 14-7 win. In 2026, Ohio State has Ball State on deck and Smith will likely find himself in the end zone at once. Smith has scored a touchdown in nine out of 11 career conference games with Texas being both exceptions (OSU at Texas in Week 2!).

3. Darian Mensah, Miami Hurricanes (+1100)
2025 Stats: 3,973 pass yds | 34 pass TDs | 66.8 comp% | 6 INTs
Week 1: At Stanford — Friday at 9:00 PM ET

Darian Mensah takes over a Miami offense that's tailor-made for him. The Hurricanes averaged 30.0 points per game last year (T-32nd) and will absolutely blow past that this year. Stanford allowed 29.2 points per game in 2025 (87th) and will have a hard time containing Mensah will all these new toys on offense.

Mensah is my pick for the Heisman and I think worth taking at +1100 if you're a betting person. The Heisman could come down to Miami at Notre Dame on November 7 and be Mensah versus CJ Carr. It seems like the two could be on a collision course. Whoever wins that game will have a good chance at 11-1 or 12-0.

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4. Julian Sayin, Ohio State Buckeyes (+1200)
2025 Stats: 3,610 pass yds | 32 pass TDs | 77 comp% | 8 INTs
Week 1: Vs Ball State — Saturday at 12:30 PM ET

In 2025, Julian Sayin had eight passing touchdowns to three interceptions on 56-of-71 passing (78.8%) in his three regular season non-conference games (Texas, Grambling, Ohio). Ohio State opens with Ball State, so a near perfect game is expected of Sayin. True Freshman WR Chris Henry Jr. (6-foot-5 195 lbs) will make his Buckeyes debut and could be a red zone target for Sayin early in the season.

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss Rebels (+1300)
2025 Stats: 3,397 pass yds | 30 total TDs | 3 INTs | 527 rush yds
Week 1: Vs #24 Louisville — Sunday at 7:30 PM ET

Trinidad Chambliss is the only player on this list that will be playing a ranked game in Week 1. Ole Miss and Louisville meet in Nashville, TN where the two offenses will look to gain a rhythm in the Music City. Without Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss scored 41, 39, and 27 on Tulane, Georgia, and Miami during the College Football Playoff. In Chambliss' two regular season games versus non-conference opponents last year, he totaled five touchdowns and 640 passing yards against Tulane and The Citadel.

6. Dante Moore, Oregon Ducks (+1100)
2025 Stats: 3,565 pass yds | 32 total TDs | 71.8 comp% | 10 INTs
Week 1: Vs Boise State — Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

Dante Moore and the Ducks should enjoy the next seven weeks as they will spend six of them in the Pacific Time Zone. Once Oregon goes to Illinois, that kickstarts seven consecutive games the Ducks will alternate time zones. Oregon's schedule isn't easy, but Dan Lanning will have Moore and the Ducks ready for the PAC-12 preseason favorite Boise State in Week 1.

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7. Josh Hoover, Indiana Hoosiers (+1500)
2025 Stats: 3,472 pass yds | 31 total TDs | 65.9 comp% | 13 INTs
Week 1: Vs North Texas — Saturday at 12 PM ET

Josh Hoover opens his Hoosiers career against North Texas, a squad that lost most of its players and coaching staff to Oklahoma State when Eric Morris left. Hoover should be able to shred the North Texas defense. With 11 games of 300-plus passing yards and another 11 games with three or more passing touchdowns over the last two seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if Hoover is unleashed right out the gate.

8. John Mateer, Oklahoma Sooners (+2500)
2025 Stats: 2,885 pass yds | 22 total TDs | 11 INTs | 431 rush yds
Week 1: Vs UTEP — Friday at 8 PM ET

In John Mateer's season-openers, he scored six touchdowns in 2024 as a starter for Washington State and four touchdowns in 2025 with Oklahoma. This year, the Sooners open with UTEP. Against Texas last season, the most comparable opponent to Oklahoma, the Miners held Arch Manning to 165 total yards, but he did score three total touchdowns. Let's see how Mateer opens 2026, but I'd bet it's with a bang.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

9. CJ Carr, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+700)
2025 Stats: 2,741 pass yds | 27 total TDs | 66.6 comp% | 6 INTs
Week 1: Vs Wisconsin — Sunday at 7:30 PM ET

CJ Carr opened his freshman season with 221 passing yards, two touchdowns, one rushing score, and one interception in a 27-24 loss to Miami. Notre Dame opens with Wisconsin this year, a team that had 32 sacks in 2025 following 17 in 2024. Carr was only sacked 12 times through 12 games last season. Staying upright and avoiding turnovers will be how he finds success without their top two running backs from a year ago.

10. Jayden Maiava, USC Trojans (+2200)
2026 Stats: 286 pass yards | 86.2 comp% | 3 total TDs | 0 INTs
Week 1: Vs Fresno State — Friday at 9 PM ET

Jayden Maiava just missed my cut for the preseason, and I know San Jose State is a cupcake, but he was almost efficient as can be in three quarters of action. Maiava went 26-of-29 for 286 yards and two passing touchdowns. Maiava also added a rushing score and nearly had a second in the 42-26 win — it was 35-3 when his day was over.

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