2026 Mountain West Football Week 4 Game Preview & Predictions

2026 Mountain West Football Week 4 Game Preview & Predictions

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2026 Mountain West Football Week 4 Game Preview & Predictions

Week 4 of the 2026 season is upon us, and conference play is starting to ramp up. There are two conference games out of the six being played this week, and by the end of the week, all but four teams will have played at least once in conference this season. In addition, this week will see three interesting road matchups for conference teams, as well as a massive opportunity for a lower-tier team to host a former power-conference foe. Without further ado, let’s get into the MW madness in Week 4.

UNLV Rebels (1-2) at Akron Zips (1-2)

Date and Time: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, 9:00 a.m. MPDT

Network: ESPN+

Spread: UNLV -13.5

Preview: Rebel fans will have to get up early on Saturday, as their team will be heading to Akron, Ohio to take on the Zips. I have no idea why UNLV’s schedule-makers thought a month straight without a home game would be a good idea, but at the very least, this long road trip will end with about as much of a softball opponent as you will ever get. Akron is ranked 130th in ESPN’s College Football Power Index, having been obliterated by both Wake Forest and a very bad Minnesota team, sandwiched around their most notable moment of the season: beating FCS Robert Morris while having a longtime season ticket holder call plays on their first drive of the game. These two teams have only played once before; a 27-6 Akron victory all the way back in 1976.

Regardless of UNLV’s issues, specifically on their offensive line, Akron’s defense has just one sack against FBS competition this season, meaning Jackson Arnold should have all the time he should need in this one. The Zips have also allowed at least 191 rushing yards in both of their FBS games this season, so Jet Thomas will likely be feasting alongside his quarterback. This game should not be very close, and the Rebels will be able to get their season back on track for a Mountain West title.

Prediction: UNLV 34, Akron 13

Northern Illinois Huskies (0-3) at Georgia State Panthers (2-1)

Date and Time: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, 1:00 p.m. CDT

Network: ESPN+

Spread: GAST -10.5

Preview: A week after taking a surprising 10-0 lead over Arizona before falling apart, the winless NIU Huskies will travel to Atlanta for a battle with the surprisingly good Georgia State Panthers. The Panthers have won just four games over the previous two seasons, but have impressed this season, taking down reigning C-USA champion Kennesaw State on the road before keeping things competitive in a 44-30 loss to UCF. The Panthers’ offense, led by senior quarterback Cameran Brown, currently are tied with the Tennessee Volunteers for the 14th-best offense in the country in yards per game, and are averaging 40 PPG. This does not bode well for a Huskies defense that has allowed 36.7 PPG, the 10th-most in the nation.

Taron Dickens will likely get the start here after his hot start against Arizona, which should allow NIU to keep this game much closer than people are giving them credit for. I expect this to be a back-and-forth affair, much like the Huskies’ loss to Illinois State. Eventually, the superior team will pull away, and the Huskies will stay winless in their MW era for now. However, I think the Huskies’ chance for a win will come, especially since they are showing much more life offensively than they did at the very start of the season.

Prediction: Georgia State 33, Northern Illinois 27

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-2) at Wyoming Cowboys (1-2)

Date and Time: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026, 9:00 a.m. HST, 1:00 p.m. MDT

Network: The CW

Spread: HAW -3

Preview: I honestly do not know whether this game will be an all-out shootout or an uninspiring bore. Hawaii and Wyoming enter this conference game having played like the exact same bad team through most of the season. The Rainbow Warriors are favored here after winning their first game of the year, but it’s honestly quite telling that they are only favored by three against a Wyoming squad that just got demolished by an equally terrible Central Michigan team.

Both teams have highly inconsistent offenses, led by Micah Alejado (worst completion percentage in the MW) and Tyler Hughes (most interceptions in the conference), respectively. Both teams have little in terms of ground support, with Hawaii ranking ninth in the conference in rushing yards, and Wyoming faring slightly better, sitting in seventh. Both teams sit in the same spots in points per game, only with the two flipped in those slots. Both teams also sit right in the middle in PPG defensively, ranking fifth and sixth in the conference.

It is very hard to predict a game like this, but the Warriors are simply too talented to lose to a team playing this badly, in my opinion. Perhaps I will come to regret my continued faith in Hawaii, but I think the ‘Bows defense will get enough stops to pull away from the Cowboys late, which will only continue to heat Jay Sawvel’s seat, perhaps to the point of no return.

Prediction: Hawaii 27, Wyoming 17

New Mexico Lobos (2-1) at New Mexico State Aggies (1-2)

Date and Time: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, 1:30 p.m. MDT

Network: CBSSN

Spread: UNM -11.5

Preview: The Rio Grande Rivalry sees its 116th meeting take place this weekend in Las Cruces, with New Mexico looking to keep posession of the brand-new Roaster trophy for another year. New Mexico State is coming off of a loss to Hawaii, with their only win on the season being a 34-point win over the same Mercyhurst team the Lobos beat by 63 a week later. New Mexico is among the top contenders at the G6 level, having nearly taken out the Oklahoma Sooners on the road last week. New Mexico leads the all-time series 75-35-5, and while the last 16 years have seen the Lobos holding a narrow 9-7 lead, this game should be as much of a blowout as can be expected from a rivalry this intense.

I expect New Mexico’s offense to continue to play inconsistently here, especially since the Lobos still cannot find their answer at quarterback. However, NMSU will not be able to keep up whatsoever, with the Lobos’ defense entering this game giving up just 9.3 PPG, the eighth-best unit in the nation. Expect the Lobos to have multiple short-field opportunities in this contest, and for them to try and pour on the points in the second half. I am honestly being quite generous to the Aggies with my score prediction, I expect it to be much worse if the Lobos are playing mad after last week’s heartbreak.

Prediction: New Mexico 41, New Mexico State 13

Oregon State Beavers (1-2) at UTEP Miners (1-2)

Date and Time: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, 7:00 p.m. MDT

Network: MW+

Spread: ORST -10.5

Preview: In one of the most intriguing matchups of the year, the Pac-12’s Oregon State Beavers must travel on the road to the Sun Bowl to play the Miners. The Miners had a brilliant first half against the Michigan Wolverines last week, taking a 14-7 lead in the second quarter before being outscored 45-3 the rest of the way. After such an encouraging outing, UTEP has a massive opportunity to prove themselves here, but the points spread does not accurately reflect what this game should look like.

Oregon State’s 1-2 record belies what kind of team this actually is. The Beavs played two top-25 teams in their first two games, losing by a combined 21 points in games that were one-score games in the fourth quarter. Part of the reason for this is their lethal offense. QB Braden Atkinson has thrown for 1,120 yards, eight TDs and one INT on the year, mostly thanks to the breakout of unexpected superstar freshman Jesse Legree, who leads the nation in receiving yards (476), doing so on a jaw-dropping 28.0 yards per reception. Legree is a joy to watch, and is actually on the Heisman watchlist due to his unprecedented dominance so far against elite competition. The Beavers’ weakness is their defense, which has yet to allow less than 17 points in a game this year, which will be the Miners’ chance to strike.

I expect UTEP to keep this one close early, but Legree will have a monster game against a UTEP secondary that ranks middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed. The Beavers will run away from the second quarter on, though the Miners will be able to keep racking up points throughout the game.

Prediction: Oregon State 44, UTEP 23

Air Force Falcons (1-1) at Nevada Wolf Pack (1-2)

Date and Time: Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, 7:30 p.m. PDT, 8:30 p.m. MDT

Network: ESPN

Spread: AF -5.5

Preview: Finally, for the third time this season, Nevada hosts the nightcap, this time welcoming the Air Force Falcons for the Pack’s conference opener. Air Force is coming off of a bye, much needed after getting trounced at home by North Dakota State the week before. Nevada, meanwhile, has revealed themselves to be the same perpetual close-game choke artists that they have always been under Jeff Choate. All the hype and buzz around this program is gone, and they will have to try and get it back against their Mountain West kryptonite.

Outside of the recently departed Broncos, no team has owned Nevada in the MW quite like Air Force. The Falcons have a 6-2 record against the Wolf Pack dating back to 2012, with Nevada’s only two wins against AF coming when the Falcons finished their season with five or fewer wins. This includes this series’ last game in 2024, when the Pack lost one of their seven one-score games of the year in their home finale, doing so despite not allowing the Falcons to complete a single pass. Each of the series’ last three games in Reno have ended with three-point Falcon victories, and I see absolutely nothing that would indicate a different outcome this time, either.

Liam Szarka and the Falcons’ triple-option attack will have no issues moving down the field early, which will likely put them ahead for the entire contest. Nevada will wake up once their foes are ahead, and may even tie the game at some point. However, in the end, the Falcon attack will be able to win the day, with a bad Nevada play call on fourth down and one to two awful turnovers dooming them as always. The Falcons will earn their first conference win of the season, continuing Nevada’s spiral back into the basement of the Mountain West.

Prediction: Air Force 30, Nevada 27

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