2026 Wisconsin football stakes rankings: The make-or-break matchups

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In today's final edition of my rankings of Wisconsin's 2026 football schedule, I'll be discussing the games that I feel are make-or-break for Luke Fickell, and will determine whether he's the head coach in 2027 or not.

The previous edition of the series contained the Notre Dame and Penn State matchups, which will be telling in my opinion, but not games that the Badgers are expected to win, nor is it super likely that they will win.

The top-two games on the list are fairly obvious in my eyes, and the process of elimination could've got you the third, so without any further introduction, here are Wisconsin's three most important games in 2026.

3. Oct. 24 vs. USC

Some fans can't get up for a game against the new Big Ten members the way they would for one of the conference's long-standing members because of the lack of rivalry juice, which I get. Still, this is going to be a pivotal game for the Badgers.

Behind Notre Dame, I imagine USC will compete with Penn State for the highest-ranked team Wisconsin faces in 2026. Barring something unforeseen, it will certainly be the highest-ranked opponent to visit Camp Randall.

Outside of the rivalry games, this seems to be the most realistic "statement win" or win over a ranked opponent. Fickell and company found late-season momentum with two ranked victories in2025, and if the trend continues, a win in this game would be a huge step for the program, proving it can continue to compete with the upper echelon of the Big Ten.

Mike Tressel has had his defense ready to go against elite offenses on multiple occasions and found ways to make games weird on multiple occasions. The problem for the most part has been the lack of offense to keep up.

A win here would require another strong defensive gameplan from Fickell and Tressel, but if they could get it done a few times last November with little offense, this is a great opportunity to do it again, with more offensive support hopefully, to keep the fanbase happy.

2. Oct. 31 at Iowa

Iowa City is a nightmare for every opponent, so playing there on Halloween isn't ideal for Wisconsin. For that reason, I won't say this is a must-win, but it is at worst the second-most important game this upcoming season.

Fickell's first clash with the Hawkeyes was a funky one. Deacon Hill got the start for Iowa, Tanner Mordecai suffered a hand injury, and Tory Taylor – yes, the punter – had one of the more impressive performances I've ever seen in-person.

Since then, in two meetings, Wisconsin has been outscored 79-10. That's inexcusable, and there's no way around it. In 2026, turnovers from the Badgers' offense dug an impossible to get out of as soon as you could blink.

Iowa will always be extremely difficult to beat, even with your starting quarterback, but even with a backup, the way Wisconsin has been beat is nothing short of shameful.

Like the Penn State and Notre Dame games, I do think this is a game the Badgers can lose without it being the breaking point in Fickell staying or going, but it simply needs to be a competitive game.

There's not a lot more for me to say about this game. Everyone knows how Iowa wants to play, and in their building, you're probably going to have to play that style of game.

A win here may be the biggest win of the season if the Badgers managed it, but simply because of how the series has gone the last two seasons, Wisconsin being competitive and giving itself a chance to win is what I need to see.

1. Nov. 27 vs. Minnesota

There was a time where the Wisconsin-Iowa rivalry felt more heated than this one simply because of the level of competitiveness between the teams. For 2026, however, I think this is by far the most important game on the schedule.

A big reason for the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe taking the top spot on this list is how realistic Wisconsin's chances to win are. Although, contributing nearly equally as much to this game earning my No. 1 ranking is how I perceive the fanbase' mood changing depending on the result.

It's annoying when the Badgers lose to Iowa because of the Hawkeyes' brand of football, without a doubt. But, I have tremendous respect for Kirk Ferentz and the identity he has built for his program, but more importantly, his low-key persona.

On the contrary, PJ Fleck is not a low-key person, which makes it all the more frustrating to lose to him. Fickell will not survive another offseason if Fleck goes crowd-surfing in the Camp Randall visitor's locker room in 2026.

In the snowy meeting in 2025, turnovers and poor special teams efforts allowed Minnesota to dominate the field-position battle, and in a game in a blizzard, you'd think that would've allowed Fleck's group to win handily. But it didn't. The Golden Gophers mustered 17 points and won by just 10 in a game where it felt like half of their drives started in Wisconsin territory.

Teams change, obviously, but that was a clear sign to me that Minnesota is a team Wisconsin can, and needs to beat at home for there to be any confidence in this program going forward.

For now, Wisconsin fans just have to put up with the Minnesota victory-lapping. It was a rather unimpressive winning effort in 2025, but a win none the less for the Gophers.

Between the frustration of losing to your oldest rival and an entertainer of a head coach and the game being extremely winnable, there is no game of more importance on Wisconsin's schedule in 2026 than the one happening on Black Friday.

The Axe was there for the taking in 2025, even in the program's worst season in decades, with essentially no offense. Now, there is nothing more important for Fickell in 2026 than making sure his team doesn't let it leave Camp Randall on Nov. 27.

This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/wisconsin as 2026 Wisconsin football stakes rankings: The make-or-break matchups.

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