5 bold predictions in the Big Ten for the 2026 football season
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After winning the last three national championships, the Big Ten has become college football’s premier conference. Entering the 2026 season, there are legitimate contenders once again all across the conference. While Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, USC and Penn State all have aspirations of making the College Football Playoff, the beauty of this sport is that things rarely ever go according to plan.
With that in mind, here are five bold predictions in the Big Ten for the upcoming season.
1) Penn State finishes with a better record than Ohio State
Let’s start off with perhaps the boldest prediction on my list — I think head coach Matt Campbell is going to have his first Nittany Lions team ready to go right away in 2026, so much so that they finish with a better record than the Buckeyes.
Campbell brought in 38 new players this offseason via the transfer portal, with a plethora of them being from his old stomping grounds of Iowa State. Quarterback Rocco Becht, wide receiver Chase Sowell, tight end Ben Brahmer and linebacker Caleb Bacon are just a few of the former Cyclones that Campbell convinced to enter the transfer portal and commit to Penn State.
In addition, Penn State’s 2026 schedule is a cakewalk. The Nittany Lions avoid Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon in the regular season, and play another weak slate of non-conference games against Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. The final month of the season also sets them up for a nice postseason run, with games at Washington, vs Minnesota, vs Rutgers and at Maryland. All in all, I’m buying the short-term hype and have Penn State winning 10 games.
Ohio State, on the other hand, has road games against Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC and Nebraska this season, while also hosting Michigan, Oregon and Illinois. And while the Buckeyes bring back several star players on both sides of the ball, I think there are a few slip ups awaiting them, resulting in a 9-3 regular season.
2) Two West Coast teams make the Big Ten Championship
The pressure is mounting on USC head coach Lincoln Riley, and that may be an understatement. The Trojans need a big season in the worst way, and I think they finally get over the hump and at least make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.
USC came close to making the CFP last season and returns one of the most experienced rosters in the Big Ten. Several projections have the Trojans among the top four teams in the league entering the year, and while that may be a bit too bold for my blood, I can understand why people view them that way.
The Trojans have been defined by their explosive offenses and inconsistent defenses under Riley, but this will be the season that everything comes together and the patience from the USC faithful pays off. Quarterback Jayden Maiava will put together an All-Big Ten type of season, and USC will win several close games that slipped away in previous years. The Trojans break through to reach Indianapolis for the first time since joining the Big Ten.
Awaiting them in Indianapolis will be Oregon, one of the preseason favorites to win the national title. Dante Moore coming back was huge for Dan Lanning and the Ducks, so I fully expect them to get back to the conference title game and compete for another championship.
3) Indiana misses the Big Ten Championship, still makes the CFP
The defending national champions are going to make this prediction look foolish if head coach Curt Cignetti keeps proving doubters wrong (all they have to do is Google him!). Not saying I’m a doubter of Indiana, necessarily, especially after last season, but I do think they will take a step back in 2026.
There are a few reasons I feel this way, but most of it has to do with the Hoosiers losing key players from last year’s team like quarterback Fernando Mendoza, and wide receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., to name a few. And while TCU transfer quarterback Josh Hoover gives Indiana another veteran option at the most important position in sports to hopefully help them continue the program’s success, I think the departures this offseason are a bit too much to overcome.
Still, I expect Indiana to still be competitive and make the 12-team CFP.
4) Pat Fitzgerald, MSU exceed expectations by winning 6 games
I didn’t like the hire of Pat Fitzgerald at Michigan State, I loved it. And as a Michigan fan, I really hate that.
Fitzgerald was a tough-nosed SOB at Northwestern for a long time and gave Michigan fits in games that really shouldn’t have been that close (I’m flashing back to Karan Higdon’s “holding” call at Northwestern in 2018). I don’t know how the Spartans will be long-term, but I think there is some juice in the program that will help them get to the six-win mark and make a bowl game in 2026.
The Spartans return quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who impressed me after taking over for a struggling Aidan Chiles last season. Milivojevic completed 64.2 percent of his throws for 1,267 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in nine games — seven of those 10 touchdowns were thrown in the month of November alone after earning the starting job. I think there’s more to his game to unlock, and if he’s able to take a step forward this fall, the Spartans could be much better than we all originally thought.
Additionally, other than a trip to Notre Dame in Week 3, MSU’s schedule isn’t all that difficult. The Spartans have to travel to Ann Arbor this year for their annual beating to Michigan, and they do host Oregon in late November. But the rest of the schedule isn’t a murderer’s row by any means, featuring teams like Northwestern, UCLA, Wisconsin and Rutgers. As long as they win those four games, they will have a great shot at making a bowl game.
5) Michigan goes 9-3 again
There is no denying the Wolverines have an upgraded coaching staff heading into the 2026 season. That alone should help them contend in the biggest games on their schedule, unlike last season when they lost every single big game in sight.
Kyle Whittingham is a fantastic head coach, and he brought in assistants like offensive coordinator Jason Beck, defensive coordinator Jay Hill, offensive line coach Jim Harding and more that should help in a variety of ways. Whittingham also brought in some talented players via the portal like John Henry Daley, Smith Snowden, Jaime Ffrench, JJ Buchanan and more that should be able to significantly contribute this year.
However, that doesn’t automatically guarantee immediate success. Michigan has one of the hardest schedules in the country, if not the most challenging overall. Yes, the Wolverines only have one road game prior to a date at Rutgers on Halloween, but they have to host Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State and Indiana before then. November road games at Oregon and Ohio State also don’t inspire confidence for me.
All in all, I believe the Wolverines will improve in several statistical categories, but they will still finish the regular season 9-3 overall and on the outside looking in for the CFP. Just to be extra bold, I’ll predict they lose to Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State.
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