Vanderbilt Football Preview 2026: Is There Life After Diego Pavia?
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Indiana sucked all of the historic upstart air out of the college football room, but Vanderbilt won ten games and was at least in the College Football Playoff discussion.
Seriously, let that sink in for a moment.
Can Vanderbilt Prove It’s More Than Diego Pavia?
Vanderbilt Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Clark Lea (6th year, 26-36)
- Best Case / Worst Case: A third straight bowl appearance/An 11th losing season in 13 years
- Key Player: Jared Curtis, QB Fr.
- 2025 Record: 10-3
- Biggest Question: Will there be life after Diego Pavia?
Florida, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee – four national championship programs in the BCS/CFP era weren’t in the mix, but there were the Commodores making their case.
Last year was the first double-digit win season in 122 years of Vanderbilt football, as head coach Clark Lea took the program from two wins to seven to ten.
But Diego Pavia had something to do with that.
Lea has another good team, but now it’s about maintaining the competitiveness.
Can Vanderbilt show that it really was more than its superstar former quarterback? Is there SEC staying power?
It’s a nice position to be in. Vanderbilt is still good, and it can do the “nobody believes in us” thing.
– 2026 Vanderbilt Schedule Analysis
Vanderbilt Key 2025 Stats
- 3rd Quarter Scoring: Vanderbilt 138, Opponents 50
- Fumbles: Opponents 14 (lost 7), Vanderbilt 8 (lost 4)
- Vanderbilt and opponents combined to average 537 passing yards per game
Offense
Mr. Pavia isn’t around to carry the attack anymore, and neither are a slew of the stars of last year’s attack that finished in the top ten in total and scoring offense.
The Commodores won’t fall off a cliff, but it’s asking for the world to get the same production without a college football legend – and an old one who had been through the wars – running the show.
What’s Working
The receiving corps is still terrific. Star tight end Eli Stowers is now a Philadelphia Eagle after catching a team-high 62 passes last season, but the receivers are strong.
Top wideout Junior Sherrill is back, Brycen Coleman should be a deep threat problem on the outside, and Cole Adams (Alabama) and Ja’Cory Thomas (Old Dominion) will be instant factors.
Pavia might have been the team’s most dangerous runner, but Sedrick Alexander returns after averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 11 scores, Makhilyn Young is a strong No. 2 back, and there’s depth ready to do more in the rotation. Which is a good thing, because …
Vanderbilt was better when it ran the ball. Pavia winging it deep was great, but the offense rolled when the ground game was rumbling. It’s no coincidence that the Commodores were 10-0 when running 25 times or more, and 0-3 when they didn’t.
The backs will be used far more.
What Needs Work
Replacing Diego. It might be a step back to take a giant leap forward. Vanderbilt goes from the at-the-time-24-year-old Pavia to – possibly – the 19-year-old star prospect Jared Curtis.
On the plus side, the offense is also going from a quarterback who barely hit 5-10 to a 6-3, 230-pound guy who can wing it.
The offensive line needs a redo. The front five is set at one guard spot with Cade McConnell returning to his Quick Guard spot, but the transfers have to come through fast.
They’re fine, but there aren’t any sure-thing SEC stars. North Dakota State left tackle Beau Johnson comes close, and landing guard Micah DeBose from Alabama is a huge help, but this will be a work in progress.
Even though Curtis has the deep arm, you don’t just step onto the field and average over nine yards per pass like Vanderbilt did last year. It only averaged 7.6 in 2024 and 6.9 in 2023. Don’t expect the explosion of last season.
Player to Watch
Cole Spence, TE Sr.
Spence took a No. 2 role behind Stowers in the tight end limelight, but the 6-7, 255-pound has the size and hands to quickly become a go-to midrange guy.
He only caught 15 passes last year, and he’s not Stowers as an all-around receiver, but he’ll be a playmaker.
Defense
The idea was to do more than hold on, but that’s what it felt like at times.
Overall, the defense was solid, allowing 357 yards and 23 points per game, but when the machine broke down, it all collapsed.
There’s enough talent returning to be better, and while the portal didn’t help as much as it did for the offensive side, some good new players are coming in.
What’s Working
The linebacking corps is loaded with good veterans. Bryan Longwell tied for the team lead with 71 stops, and he can get into the backfield. Nick Rinaldi is a 6-3, 240-pound tough guy in the middle, and the depth is there for the two in the 4-2-5.
The defense relies more on pressure from several spots rather than just one guy, and several of the key guys are back up front.
Miles Capers led the team with 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss from his spot at one end, Brian Allen was a star get from Iowa for the other side, and the interior gets back 6-3, 340-pound Glenn Seabrooks as a true anchor to work around.
It’s on the pass defense. It wasn’t great last year, but four starters are back with Clemson’s Ricardo Jones stepping in at strong safety for new Colorado Buffalo, Randon Fontenette.
Even though the bunch gave up a ton of yards, the team was 9-0 when keeping teams from hitting fewer than 72% of their passes. But …
What Needs Work
The secondary got bombed on. Teams had to keep throwing to try to keep up the pace with what Pavia and the Commodore offense were doing.
Even so, the pass defense gave up more than 200 yards to everyone but Virginia Tech and Charleston Southern.
Come up with more third down stops. Fine, the pass defense will give up yards – cost of doing business – but it was the inability to get off the field that was the big problem.
Only Florida and Arkansas were worse in the SEC at coming up with third down stops – allowing teams to convert over 43% of the time – after finishing dead-last in the conference in 2023 and 2024
Takeaways have to come against the better teams. The Commodores only came up with multiple turnovers against three teams – Kentucky, South Carolina, and Charleston Southern. Nine of the 15 takeaways came against those three.
Player to Watch
Martel Hight, CB Sr.
Vanderbilt didn’t have any All-SEC players on the defensive side, but no one in the conference came up with more interceptions than Hight. The team’s steady corner, going into his fourth year, made 35 tackles with four picks.
Keys to the Season
- Quickly adjust to the loss of Diego Pavia
- Tighten up the defense a bit more, considering all the starters returning
- Chill on the penalties – the Commodores were hit with almost seven a game
Player Who Needs To Shine
Jared Curtis, QB Fr.
Or Blaze Berlowitz. Curtis is the potential franchise star for the next few years. He’s nowhere near the type of all-around baller that Diego Pavia was, but he’s got a big arm, can spin it, and he should be able to keep the downfield passing game going.
Biggest Concern
Replacing Pavia
All the guy did was hit over 70% of his passes last season with 29 touchdowns, and ran for 862 yards and ten scores in a Heisman runner-up campaign.
More than that, he had a way of always keeping the team in games, gave the program a massive attitude, and is the type of player who’s impossible to replace right away.
Biggest Game
at Auburn, Sept. 26
The Commodores don’t have a bad run of SEC road games, all things considered. However, after the conference opener at Auburn is a trip to Georgia, and then a date with Ole Miss. Lose this, and it’ll be hard to avoid an 0-3 SEC start.
Transfer Portal
This sounds like a slap, but it’s not.
Vanderbilt, for all of its recent success, will never be Alabama, Georgia, or LSU on the recruiting trail, but it did a fantastic job in the transfer portal.
Offensive line and edge rusher were the star positions, but the coaching staff was able to bulk up overall and upgrade the depth.
Best Signing
Jayvontay Conner, TE (East Carolina)
The 6-4, 235-pounder started his career at Ole Miss, spent the last two years at East Carolina, and last season averaged close to 28 yards per catch on 23 grabs for the Pirates. He’ll be an instant factor in the tight end rotation.
Biggest Loss
Tre Richardson, WR (Louisville)
The receiving corps is more than fine, but Richardson was the team’s best deep threat, averaging 17.5 yards per catch with seven scores.
Other Names to Know
- Brian Allen Jr., EDGE (Iowa)
- Micah DeBose, OG (Alabama)
- Talan Carter, DT (Jacksonville State)
CFN Season Prediction
To belabor the point, just how much did Diego Pavia really mean to the Commodores?
The other parts of the Commodores stepped up over the last two years under Clark Lea, but one player might just be the difference between another great season and a major step back.
And the schedule has a lot to do with this, too.
Alabama in 2024 was the only win over the last two years against a team that finished with more than eight wins.
CFN Prediction: 5-7
You don’t have to apologize for anything if you’re a 10-2 SEC team, but remember, Vanderbilt started out 5-0 last season against Charleston Southern and four blah teams that ended up with losing records (Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia State, Utah State).
The Commodores will beat Austin Peay and Delaware, and they should be able to handle NC State at home.
But Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi State are all stronger, and all of those games are on the road.
There’s no LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, or Texas A&M, but Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are all tough home games.
But don’t get into a twist about the predicted record. Vanderbilt is a far better program than it was three years ago.
Related: SEC Football Win Totals 2026: Spring Predictions for All 16 Teams
This story was originally published by College Football News on Jun 15, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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