Former NFL coach predicted to be first college football coach fired during 2026 season

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Coaches get fired faster than ever in college football. Nearly 20 Power Four programs changed coaches during or after the 2025 season. Last year, Penn State’s James Franklin, Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State and Trent Dilfer at UAB did not even make it to November.

So the question for 2026 is not who gets fired; it is who will be first. Perhaps later we can speculate on how many get fired in total. Let’s take our turn as Goldilocks, test out some hot seats and see which one is just right. Who plays who and when are the best predictors of who might be first to go. An early stumble ends a tenure faster than a late one, after all.

Let’s run down some of the college football coaches already on the hot seat and round it off with my prediction for who will be fired first.

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Mike Norvell has the hottest seat in college football at Florida State

Mike Norvell is 7-17 at Florida State over the past two seasons. CBS Sports gave the Seminoles’ coach a 5.0 hot-seat rating, the worst mark possible. His contract includes more than $50 million in buyout money, so Florida State kept him for financial reasons.

The schedule isn’t doing the Seminoles any favors. SMU plays at Florida State on Sept. 7, and the Seminoles travel to Alabama on Sept. 19. A 1-2 start is possible. But the buyout still protects him into November.

Dave Aranda enters year 7 at Baylor after four losing seasons

Dave Aranda has four losing seasons in six years at Baylor. The Bears went 5-7 in 2025, and he would likely have been fired last year, but former athletic director Mack Rhoades resigned first.

Baylor added former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway via the transfer portal. The September slate is soft, with Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech at home. So Aranda should survive the fall. His most dangerous stretch is closing the season with games at BYU, Texas Tech and at Houston. Talk about a gauntlet. Assuming he gets that far, it’s hard to imagine much of a silver lining could be found should the Bears finish with (at least) three straight losses.

Luke Fickell needs a fast start at Wisconsin to keep his job

Luke Fickell is 17-21 at Wisconsin and has won fewer games each season, totaling just four wins in 2025. To his credit, two of those wins came against Big Ten conference foes, and both opponents were ranked at the time. Those wins over No. 23 Washington and No. 21 Illinois likely only serve to delay the inevitable for Fickell.

Wisconsin opens against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field on Sept. 6, so I think we know what’s going to happen there. Then the Badgers play at Penn State on Sept. 26. Both losses would be forgivable, however, so Fickell likely reaches his Oct. 10 bye at 3-2. His real trouble comes later, at UCLA and at Iowa. Wisconsin wants to avoid a third straight losing season.

Mike Locksley faces a brutal October stretch at Maryland

Mike Locksley has posted back-to-back 4-8 seasons at Maryland. If there’s one benefit in College Park is that expectations are relatively muted. The Terps play at UConn on Sept. 12. Virginia Tech then visits College Park on Sept. 19. A 1-1 finish between those two would be the optimistic view.

The Terrapins also go to Nebraska on Oct. 3 and Ohio State on Oct. 10. Quarterback Malik Washington gives Locksley a chance. But Maryland’s bye does not come until Oct. 24, delaying any decision. That timing makes him the runner-up here.

Why Bill O’Brien will be the first college football coach fired

Bill O’Brien, who served in the NFL as the Houston Texans head coach from 2014 to 2020, won seven games in his first season at Boston College. He then won two in 2025. The Eagles lost 10 straight games between their opener and their finale.

Now the calendar works against him. Four of the first five games are losable, and none would be excusable. So getting fired is quite doable. Sorry, I love rhymes.

Boston College plays at Cincinnati on Sept. 5, then Rutgers visits Alumni Stadium on Sept. 11 for the Red Bandanna Game, held on the 25th anniversary of Sept. 11.

Virginia Tech comes to Chestnut Hill on Sept. 26 and then a road trip at SMU on Oct. 3. Maine is the only certain win to this point in the schedule, so a 1-4 record to start is realistic.

The bye week follows on Oct. 10, and the open date gives Boston College brass some time to act before the next game.

The Eagles are also expected to start Saginaw Valley State transfer Mason McKenzie at quarterback, who won GLIAC Freshman of the Year in 2024.

Earlier this summer, McKenzie didn’t instill much confidence with his comments on how he is learning the offense.

“There’s a lot that goes into a Bill O’Brien offense,” McKenzie said. “I’ll tell you that. It’s definitely difficult, and in the spring, it was really hard. Now it’s getting easier, day by day. Today was easier than yesterday. Yesterday was easier than the day before.”

The dual-threat signal-caller will have to be ready to lead the Eagles to at least a few underdog wins this season to spare O’Brien from the chopping block. And there are a lot of underdog contests on tap, with matchups against Notre Dame and Miami coming up in November.

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