From 1-11 to Playoff? 5 unranked teams who could surprise their way into 2026 CFP
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The national championship favorites are obvious, with blue-blood teams littered across the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll.
But which teams from outside the top 25 have a chance at the College Football Playoff?
Texas Tech is the favorite to repeat as Big 12 champions, but the conference appears to be wide open following the Brendan Sorsby drama as the Red Raiders will now turn to Will Hammond at quarterback.
Coaching changes across the sport could also shake up the 12-team field, with an influx of transfer portal additions at numerous programs.
While none of these teams is a projected CFP contender, there are outcomes in which they can sneak into contention. Here’s a look at five preseason unranked teams who could shock college football and reach the playoff:
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State has a wide range of outcomes under first-year coach Eric Morris, who takes over a program left by Mike Gundy, the greatest coach in school history.
Morris nearly made the CFP last season with North Texas, before the Mean Green fell to Tulane in the American championship game. He also brought along the nation’s leading passer in Drew Mestemaker, along with his top weapons in receiver Wyatt Young and running back Caleb Hawkins, the nation’s rushing touchdowns leader in 2025.
The Cowboys’ schedule isn’t terrible, either: Their two toughest games against No. 12 Texas Tech and No. 2 Oregon are at home, and they round out their conference schedule at West Virginia, Houston, Iowa State and Arizona State with home games against UCF, Colorado and Kansas.
If Oklahoma State goes 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Texas Tech, it could feasibly earn an at-large bid, even with a conference championship loss. It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys reaching the CFP with a 9-3 record, though, barring an unexpected Big 12 title game appearance with two losses in conference play.
A CFP bid — or even close to it — would be a huge turnaround for an Oklahoma State team coming off a 1-11 finish last season.
TCU
Fifth-year coach Sonny Dykes has already taken TCU to the CFP once, having lost to Georgia in the 2023 national championship game.
The Horned Frogs haven’t sniffed a CFP run since, although they’re coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons, led by former quarterback Josh Hoover, now at Indiana.
Dykes added Harvard transfer Jaden Craig as Hoover's replacement, landing an under-the-radar passer who received some NFL draft buzz last season. The Horned Frogs also return their entire starting defensive line, multiple offensive linemen and No. 2 receiver Jordan Dwyer, who caught 54 receptions for 730 yards with seven touchdowns last season.
TCU could be a sneaky team in a conference lacking top-end teams outside of Texas Tech and BYU. Its schedule is also manageable, playing BYU, West Virginia, Kansas and Kansas State at home while facing UCF, Baylor, Arizona and Texas Tech on the road.
UNLV
UNLV might have the best odds of reaching the CFP of any team on this list, thanks to being the 2026 Mountain West favorite.
The Rebels lost to Boise State in the Mountain West title game last season under first-year coach Dan Mullen, the former Mississippi State and Florida head coach. While they lost quarterback Anthony Colandrea to Nebraska, they added former five-star prospect Jackson Arnold, who has struggled as the starter at Oklahoma and Auburn the past two seasons. UNLV also was able to keep standout running back Jai’Den Thomas, who racked up 1,273 total yards of offense with 13 touchdowns.
UNLV faces a nonconference slate that includes Memphis, North Texas and California, all of whom could be a tough out. Boise State is now in the Pac-12, so the Rebels not only need to win the Mountain West but also need to be the highest-ranked non-Power Four conference champion.
UNLV’s continuity on its coaching staff gives it the leg up on the American’s top CFP contenders after Jon Sumrall left Tulane for Florida and Morris left North Texas.
Louisville
Louisville started the 2025 season with a 7-1 record that included a win over then-No. 2 Miami before dropping three of its last four games against Cal, Clemson and SMU, all three of whom are projected to be among the better teams in the ACC this season.
While the Cardinals lost starting quarterback Miller Moss, they return star running back tandem Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, who make up one of the best backfields in college football. Third-year coach Jeff Brohm will also turn the offense to Lincoln Kienholz, a former Ohio State reserve quarterback.
It’s hard to imagine a Brohm-led offense having bad quarterback play, which is one of the biggest question marks for Louisville heading into 2026. Still, the program is more than capable of competing for an ACC title.
The Cardinals have one of the easiest conference slates, avoiding Miami, Clemson, Cal and Virginia Tech. They also have the opportunity at a few resume-boosting nonconference wins against SEC foes Mississippi and Kentucky.
Louisville will need to run the table in conference play — or win at least one of its two games against the Rebels or Wildcats — to have a shot, but the Cardinals have a real path to the ACC championship game, where last season a five-loss Duke team nearly made the field.
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech made a huge move this offseason by hiring former Penn State coach James Franklin, who was fired midseason by the Nittany Lions despite taking his former program to the CFP semifinals in 2024.
Franklin immediately got to work in the transfer portal, adding one of the most talented groups in the conference, led by multiple former Penn State players and recruits. The Hokies will be led by former Penn State quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who passed for 1,339 yards with eight touchdowns to four interceptions last season in seven starts as a redshirt freshman.
Virginia Tech’s schedule — unlike Louisville's — is quite tough, with road games against SMU, Clemson and Miami. It’ll likely have to win two of those three games to have a shot at the conference title game, along with a subsequent CFP chance.
Betting on Virginia Tech is a bet on talent, though, with the Hokies boasting one of the better rosters in the conference.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: From 1-11 to Playoff? 5 unranked teams who could surprise their way into 2026 CFP
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