What chance does FPI give LSU football of making national title game?

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LSU football has high expectations entering year one under new head coach Lane Kiffin. The Tigers signed an elite transfer-portal class and welcomed a bevy of talented freshmen from the high school ranks. LSU only won seven games last year, but the roster turnover could have the Tigers ready to contend nationally in Kiffin's first year.

According to ESPN's FPI, LSU has a 7.6% chance of making the national title game. The Tigers have a 3.5% chance of winning the whole thing.

In recent years, thanks to the transfer portal, we've seen accelerated rebuilds that let coaches compete for titles early in their tenures. Curt Cignetti just led Indiana to a national championship in his second year leading the program. However, Kiffin winning it all in year one would be nearly unprecedented.

LSU was ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP Poll, which dropped earlier this week. LSU begins its 2026 season on Labor Day weekend, facing Clemson in Tiger Stadium. ESPN's College GameDay will broadcast live from Baton Rouge in Week 1.

This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: What chance does FPI give LSU football of making national title game?

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