Predicting Oklahoma's Record in 2026

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Oklahoma Sooners, Brent Venable — Oklahoma coach Brent Venables offers encouragement during warm-ups. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Sooners on SI staff projected how Oklahoma will fare in the regular season this fall.

John E. Hoover: 9-3

The Sooners' challenging schedule costs them early, but eventually pays off as OU still rallies to make the College Football Playoff. A grinding, physical win at Michigan on Sept. 12 takes a toll on their trip to Georgia on Sept. 26 and their return to the Cotton Bowl to play Texas on Oct. 10. After dropping two huge games in a three-week span, Oklahoma bounces back with three straight wins, then stumbles at Florida. Still, Brent Venables' squad rallies to win their last three to finish the regular season at 9-3. After watching the SEC championship on Dec. 5, the CFP selection committee – with a ton of parity (and two- and three-loss teams) at the top of the rankings – decides to reward OU's scheduling efforts with the first playoff bid for a 9-win team.

Ryan Chapman: 10-2

The Sooners won four one-score games last year, which could be a regression indicator in 2026. But OU navigated a tough schedule a year ago despite playing with a hurt quarterback and a misfiring offense. Mateer's health and maturation, paired with additions to boost the offense, should allow the Sooners to once again navigate a tough slate. The Week 4 trip to Georgia looms large, but as long as Oklahoma avoids a blowout, a loss in Athens won't be a massive negative in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee. Brent Venables also needs an improved showing in the Cotton Bowl, but the Sooners have what it takes to rally again late and enter the postseason 10-2 and riding a lengthy win streak into the CFP.

Carson Field: 9-3

Oklahoma can be a very good football team in 2025 and still lose a handful of games. The Sooners play one of the nation's toughest schedules. Three of their opponents – Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas A&M – reached the College Football Playoff a year ago, while Texas and Michigan narrowly missed out. And while the Sooners have more talent and returning players than Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Kentucky, none of those games will be "gimmies." Personally, I see OU falling to Michigan, Georgia and Texas A&M. But if those are the Sooners' only losses, that means they will have taken down Texas, Ole Miss and several other SEC teams. While a 9-3 record would be worse than OU's 10-2 regular-season record in 2025, the Sooners' resume would give the committee a convincing argument that they should be included in the CFP.

Ryan Aber: 10-2

This is certainly an optimistic pick, but with stability on the offensive line (outside of Jake Maikkula's injury), a deeper group of receivers and tight ends who look like they might actually be able to make a play or two, not to mention John Mateer's growth, seeing a significant leap offensively isn't out of the question at all. If they're able to stay healthy, especially at the running back spot, the Sooners could be a much more well-rounded team than they were a season ago.That's not even counting a defense that remains formidable, even if they don't have a ton of proven depth now, and a Lou Groza Award-winning kicker. This might not be enough to get the Sooners into the SEC Championship Game, but it's enough to put Oklahoma into the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season.

Brady Trantham:10-2

Oklahoma has a brutal schedule – arguably the most difficult schedule in school history. But this is still, in fact, Oklahoma. You sign up to play at OU to win games. Given what Brent Venables has built on defense/special teams and what we believe him to be building with the offense, plus the amount of talent returning in 2026, OU is well positioned to win 10 games and return to the College Football Playoff. Considering that Venables also received an extension, that just ramps up the acknowledgement of the standard. This is a good Sooner team, and good Sooner teams find ways to win difficult games.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/oklahoma as Predicting Oklahoma's Record in 2026.

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