College football Week 1 upset watch: LSU’s loaded defensive front tests Clemson’s new QB
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In the Week 0 college football coverage of Upset Watch, every game was discussed because of the short slate. Starting this week, Upset Watch narrows to a handful of matchups that carry real upset potential, whether or not the game itself is a marquee draw. Some weeks that means a ranked showdown. Some weeks it means an overlooked mismatch with more going on than the line suggests.
Each game gets an upset grade from 1 to 10. A 1 means the favorite is close to a lock. A 10 means the underdog has a legit path to winning outright.
Here are four Week 1 games worthy of an upset watch.
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UCLA at Cal: Upset Watch 7
- Spread: UCLA -2.5
- Total: Under 53.5
- Location: California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, California
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 5, 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Two new coaching staffs open the season against each other, and neither program has shown enough yet to make this a settled line. Cal hired Tosh Lupoi away from a defensive coordinator job and handed him a roster with sophomore quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele already in place. Sagapolutele started every game as a true freshman last season and spent the offseason working with an overhauled receiver room brought in through the portal.
UCLA counters with Nico Iamaleava, a former five-star who struggled behind a bad offensive line during a 3-9 season under a coach who got fired three games in. Bob Chesney arrived from James Madison and brought 43 transfers with him, including running back Wayne Knight, but a rebuilt offensive line and a new defensive coordinator installing a scheme from scratch make this projection more theoretical than proven.
The line opened with Cal favored by 1.5 points and has since flipped to UCLA favored by up to 2.5, a swing of roughly four points. That kind of movement in a game between two unproven teams looks more like public money following name recognition than new information. Knight gives Chesney’s offense a different identity than what UCLA had a year ago, when Iamaleava was the team’s leading rusher out of necessity rather than design. UCLA grinds this one out on the road, 27-22.
Picks: UCLA SU, UCLA -2.5 ATS, Under 53.5
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No. 24 Louisville at No. 9 Ole Miss: Upset Watch 8
- Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
- Total: Over 55.5
- Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee (Music City Kickoff)
- Kickoff: Sunday, September 6, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
Ole Miss enters as the only game of the week featuring two ranked teams on both sides, and the roster suggests why the Rebels have stayed a touchdown favorite since the line opened. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy both return for a team that reached the College Football Playoff semifinal. First-year head coach Pete Golding inherits far more continuity than a typical Year 1 rebuild.
Louisville’s calling card is its own explosive backfield. Running back Isaac Brown led the nation in yards per carry a season ago at 8.8, nearly two yards ahead of the next-best Power Four back. The Cardinals are replacing quarterback Miller Moss, now in the NFL, with Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, who has thrown 36 passes in three college seasons, but Jeff Brohm has gotten instant production out of every transfer quarterback he has started in Louisville.
The betting market has priced this as one of the most stable lines of the week, never moving off Ole Miss minus 6.5 or 7 since it opened. That stability reflects Ole Miss’s roster advantage on paper, but Brown’s ability to turn a modest gain into a touchdown at any moment gives Louisville a path to more points than the neutral-site line implies. The Cardinals grab the road win in a shootout, 31-27.
Picks: Louisville SU, Louisville +6.5 ATS, Over 55.5
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No. 19 SMU at Florida State: Upset Watch 6
- Spread: SMU -3
- Total: Under 53.5
- Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
- Kickoff: Monday, September 7, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
SMU is favored on the road against a ranked ACC opponent. That says a lot about how the market views Florida State entering Year 3 of the Mike Norvell rebuild. The Seminoles needed a fourth-quarter surge to beat New Mexico State by 17 in Week 0. Norvell called the mistakes correctable, pointing to blown coverages and miscommunication rather than a talent gap, but the response arrives immediately against a ranked opponent instead of another buy game.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels, a transfer from Stanford by way of Auburn, is throwing to preseason All-ACC receiver Duce Robinson, who caught 1,081 yards worth of passes last season. That pairing gives Florida State a proven top target even while the rest of the passing game is still finding its rhythm under a new starter.
SMU brings back senior quarterback Kevin Jennings for his third year as a starter. His offensive line that surrendered only 19 sacks a season ago. The line opened with SMU favored by 2.5 points and moved to 3 immediately after Florida State’s shaky Week 0 showing, before settling back around 3 this week. Norvell’s seat is one of the hottest in the sport entering Monday night, and Jennings’s experience shows up late as SMU pulls away for the true road win, 28-20.
Picks: SMU SU, SMU -3 ATS, Under 53.5
Clemson at No. 11 LSU: Upset Watch 4
- Spread: LSU -10
- Total: Under 50.5
- Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 5, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
Clemson enters the season unranked for the first time since 2011, and the reason sits at quarterback. Dabo Swinney named Christopher Vizzina his starter only four days before kickoff, and Vizzina carries 105 career pass attempts and one previous start into a sold-out road environment against a ranked opponent. Death Valley in Baton Rouge is louder than most environments Clemson will see all season. It should be quite a test. Vizzina has never played a road game as a starter anywhere.
LSU lands in a rough spot for that inexperience. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker returns Ole Miss transfer Princewill Umanmielen. Last season, he posted 50 pressures on 465 snaps. Baker’s defense ranked in the top 10 nationally in both scoring and pass efficiency before adding him. LSU also went 3-4 against the spread as a road favorite over the past two seasons under different circumstances.
LSU is breaking in its own new starter in Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt. He’s working back from offseason foot surgery and logged limited spring reps. The offensive line in front of him graded as one of the worst in the Power Four last season even after adding five-star tackle Jordan Seaton. LSU wins comfortably, 30-13.
Picks: LSU SU, LSU -10 ATS, Under 50.5
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