Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 2: Are the Rams and Beavers bowl teams?
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The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.
Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.
For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.
For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.
Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Bowl Affiliation Key
Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ
Hawaii Bowl: MW #2
Arizona Bowl: MW #3
New Mexico Bowl: MW #4
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup
Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl
Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ
Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4
Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams
ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl
College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team
Mike
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State
ESPN Bowl: Oregon State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
I flipped NDSU and New Mexico this week. I think those are the clear top two teams in the Mountain West, but the Bison have a better resume at this point, but they are interchangable for me. The Spartans move up a bit with 2 wins, winning the winnable games so far. I’m down on UNLV, but they should get enough wins in a weak bottom of the conference. Same with Air Force, who looked good in the second half. For the Pac-12, it’s slim pickings, as I have two 0-2 teams in the bowl projections. Oregon State looks tough, so I’m thinking they can start pulling out wins. Not as sure about the Bobcats, but we will see. I move the Broncos into the CFP after beating Memphis convincingly. Then the Bulldogs and Aztecs look to be the next two teams. Someone has to win these conference games.
Zach
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
Jeff
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl: UNLV
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado State
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Oregon State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
I dropped some teams out. NDSU is looking good. There are two undefeated teams in the MWC and one in the PAC. Boise is impressive, and they could run the table and have a good resume. New Mexico continues to be a good story. The Aztecs need to find their offense. Oregon State has impressed with losses against higher-caliber teams.
Chase
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado State
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State
ESPN Bowl: Oregon State
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
I dropped Nevada this week, they have gone back to looking like the Wolf Pack after a week cosplaying as prime Alabama. I put UNLV in as my last bowl team because it feels like there will have to be five or more making a bowl no matter what, but I honestly do not think the Rebels will make a bowl game at all with their offensive line being what it is. Perhaps Hawaii can jump them for that bid, though I have my doubts there as well. I think Boise State will make the playoffs out of the Pac-12, but pretty much any team in that conference making a bowl game would not surprise me at all, save for Utah State.
Dan
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl: UNLV
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State
Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
ESPN Bowl: Oregon State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
If you wanna look at this projection project as a battle of “PAC vs MW”, the PAC-12 is currently the leader in the clubhouse. Boise State is currently the G6 favorite for the CFP, while SDSU and Fresno State looked the part in Week 2 beatdowns. Where Wazzu has fallen, Oregon State has picked up the slack. For the Mountain West, New Mexico and NDSU have been great, but there hasn’t been much else to celebrate. Nevada dropped the ball against Montana State, and UNLV and Hawaii have left more to be desired so far. However, this can definitely flip. The Lobos head to Norman this week to take on the Sooners. If they can put up a good fight, perhaps they can challenge the blue turf crew for a CFP prediction.
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