College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 3 Bets for Georgia vs Arkansas, USC vs Rutgers, More

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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday’s college football card.

Week 3 marks a bit of an inflection point in the season. We’ll finally start to get some real data points to work with after this weekend, with many teams still not playing anybody with a pulse.

And moving forward, I can start to more confidently dive into tendencies and advanced metrics to focus on a higher frequency of matchups as we get into conference play. But for this week, it’s heavy on my projections and the scheduling spots.

Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you’re following along there for plays early in the week that may move. For reference, I’ll note what I’d still play each wager to and purposefully waited on most this week until they were more widely available.

Last week was very frustrating despite a winning week. I just expected a lot better with nearly 30 points of CLV.

My eight winners came easy with an average cover margin north of three touchdowns, with all but one covering by at least 11 points, while the losses came by an average of less than a touchdown with a couple brutal coin-flip losses.

While annoying, that’s a good sign, and the coin-flip breaks tend to even out over time.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 3 spots. I’m banking on a lot of big favorites not being too concerned with running up big margins ahead of some tough stretches in league play.

It doesn’t hurt that many of the teams I’m backing play on the slower side, with the total number of possessions dropping overall across the sport in recent seasons regardless.

So, caveat emptor: if you don’t like ugly ‘dogs, you’re probably not going to enjoy this week’s card.

• 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
• 2026: 8-5-1 (61.5%)
• Overall: 231-183-4 (55.8%)

Let’s dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 3.

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College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Arkansas +25.5
	12 p.m.	Texas State -2.5
	12 p.m.	Bowling Green +24
	3:30 p.m.	UTEP +35.5
	3:30 p.m.	Rutgers +24
	7 p.m.	South Alabama -4
	7 p.m.	Rice +9.5
	7:30 p.m.	New Mexico +23.5
	8 p.m.	UTSA +30.5

The brand new Hogs have looked horrendous to start the season. Following a lackluster effort against FCS North Alabama, they went out to Utah and got slaughtered by the Utes, 43-10.

New head coach Ryan Silverfield definitely has his work cut out for him in his first season in Fayetteville.

Meanwhile, Georgia has looked completely unstoppable through two weeks, blasting its first pair of opponents by a combined 100 points.

While I like this experienced and talented Dawgs bunch, let’s pump the brakes a bit before we crown them national champions. They beat a flaccid FCS team in Tennessee State (which, for reference, lost 30-3 to Alabama A&M last week) and then stomped out a way-down Western Kentucky bunch that lost at Nevada by 35 in its opener.

While head coach Kirby Smart finally covered as a favorite of greater than 38 points (twice!), neither of those performances really moved the needle for me.

I did upgrade the Dawgs slightly and have downgraded the Razorbacks, yet I still am hovering right around a spread of 22 for this game.

Therefore, I had to take the 25.5 and sell high on Georgia in its first road game following two blowouts of complete cupcakes to open the season.

It’s also worth noting that Georgia has Oklahoma on deck, so this 11 a.m. local kick could end up being a bit of a sleepy start.

Plus, against competent opponents (jury is still out on whether we can classify Arkansas as such), this Georgia passing attack may lack elite explosiveness on the outside, which certainly helps an underdog catching over three touchdowns.

Look, the Arkansas quarterback play is particularly poor, which will be impossible to overcome in SEC play.

And I don’t expect the Hogs to do much against a stout Georgia defense, but there were rumblings they were tipping plays last week in Utah, so that could have played a part in that absolute drubbing.

And you’d imagine they’d clean that up this week while preparing to throw the kitchen sink at Georgia in its SEC home opener under a brand-new regime.

As I alluded to above, prior to Georgia’s opener, the betting world couldn’t stop talking about Smart’s atrocious track record (0-15 ATS) as a favorite of more than 38 points that I’ve talked about extensively for a long time. He went 2-0 ATS in those spots to start this season to end that streak with authority, but I personally wanted no part of fading Georgia in either game.

This is a different story, and it does remain true that Kirby generally doesn’t have interest in running up the score on teams. His splits (see below) as a favorite in this spread range against SEC foes back that up.

I’m holding my nose and taking the points. Woo Pig Sooie.

Pick: Arkansas +25.5 (Play to +24.5)

The bounces are eventually going to go Texas State’s way. Last season, the Bobs went 1-4 in one-possession games with a pair of overtime losses. And so far this season, the good fortune hasn’t come their way.

In the opener against Texas, they found themselves down 28-0 despite gaining more yards than the Longhorns. Going 1-for-3 on fourth down with three turnovers certainly didn’t help matters, but the offense moved the ball easily in the first half against the current No. 1 team in America.

Then, last week against UTSA, they lost in the final seconds in a contest it out-gained the Roadrunners, 481-398.

Once again, the bounces didn’t go their way when they really probably just needed one. The Bobs had a -3 turnover margin and went 0-for-1 on fourth down, while UTSA converted 5-of-6.

There have probably been a lot of sleepless nights in G.J. Kinne’s household over the past two seasons, but you’d have to imagine the boys from San Marcos are overdue for some positive variance, which could start this week against a North Texas team we can sell high on following a 38-point clubbing of UNLV.

I’ve been very impressed with what Neal Brown has done with a brand-new roster after most of last year’s staff and key players darted for Stillwater. The Mean Green even out-gained Indiana in the opener.

As a result, I have upgraded them by nearly a touchdown, even if part of last week’s result had to do with a horrific spot for UNLV, which simply never got off the bus in one of the sloppiest first halves of football you’ll see all season.

For this particular matchup, I trust Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson to carve up a North Texas secondary that has lost three pieces to injury since the start of camp.

Imagn Images. Pictured: Texas State Bobcats QB Brad Jackson.

It’s worth noting that stud Texas State wideout Beau Sparks and fellow starting receiver Zechariah Sample are listed as questionable after both missed last week’s game, which makes that result even more impressive, in my opinion.

I’m hearing both have a decent shot of suiting up, which would provide a very welcome boost to an electric passing attack that came into the year with the only pair of returning 1,000-yard receivers in the country with Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr.

Ultimately, I like the spot and matchup in a game I project over a field goal, so I happily bet the -2.5 here even with the lingering injury questions at wide receiver for the Bobs.

I mean, Texas State laid an almost identical number last week at home vs. UTSA. I know North Texas is better than expected, but I’m not ready to power-rate it at the same level as the Roadrunners.

The Bobcat special teams are a disaster, but the Mean Green have glaring issues in that department as well, making that a bit of a wash.

I’m sure North Texas running back Jahiem White will pose problems for the Bobcat defense, but give me the better quarterback and team at home at less than a field goal in a battle between programs that have played two of the most difficult schedules in the country to date.

Pick: Texas State -2.5 (Play to -3)

This is a tough spot for the Cyclones after a hard-fought last-minute loss to Iowa in the Cy-Hawk Game last week.

Now, they come home for a sleepy early kick to face lowly Bowling Green one week before hosting Utah to kick off conference play.

I doubt they want to show much here and likely want to get some run for their inexperienced backup quarterback once they build a comfortable lead.

Plus, quarterback Jaylen Raynor is always a prime candidate to cough the ball up, regardless of opponent. The Clones also got pretty beat up last week in Iowa City, so they could be down a couple of key starters.

Bowling Green has been pretty abysmal to start the season. The Falcons lost a coin-flip at home to an FCS school to open the season (a top-10 one at least) and then got drilled at Nebraska, 56-7, last week.

The offense is simply anemic with a D-II transfer at quarterback, playing behind an offensive line that had to be completely rebuilt after the Falcons sported an extremely veteran group in Eddie George’s first season in northwest Ohio.

The wide receiver room is also severely lacking in talent. It’s very alarming that BG averaged only 2.8 yards per rush against Tarleton, which allowed both Prairie View A&M and McNeese State to eclipse six yards per carry.

You can at least expect BG to operate at a glacial pace with a heavy dose of likely unsuccessful runs and short passes that feature tight ends from heavy sets.

This Iowa State defense looks legit under head coach Jimmy Rogers, as it held Iowa to nothing on the ground while almost pulling off the upset.

There’s a real chance Bowling Green just can’t score here, so I also sprinkled some under, for what it’s worth.

While disappointing so far, the BG defense does at least have some real talent for a MAC school at all three levels. And this Iowa State offense is just completely broken right now while also operating at a snail-like pace.

This thing could easily end 23-7 in a battle between two of the slower-paced teams in the country.

Pick: Bowling Green +24 or Better · Under 44

This is a tough spot on paper for Michigan, following a season-saving victory over Oklahoma with a trip to Iowa on tap to kick off Big Ten play.

Last week was an absolute all-out effort following the controversial Hail Mary victory over Western Michigan.

What changed for the Wolverines last week? Well, for starters, they came out ready to play. Additionally, they unleashed Bryce Underwood’s legs, which unlocked the offense. He finished with almost as many designed runs (15) as pass attempts (17).

That approach looks like the best path forward for this Michigan offense, but I doubt you want to run Underwood much against a severely outmatched opponent in UTEP.

As a result, Underwood’s inaccuracy in the traditional dropback game could lead to a few punts, which is all it might take to stay within this number.

Plus, UTEP is actually working at a very slow pace compared to previous seasons, which is always ideal for a large underdog. And it’s not like the Wolverines operate with lightning tempo, which should suppress the number of possessions.

I’m not going to say too many positive things about the Miners, but they did move the ball at times much more effectively than I had expected in the opener at Oklahoma with a brand-new offense. They just couldn’t make a field goal, going 0-for-3.

That could be an issue once again, but I at least expect the offense to look better with each passing week.

After maybe working on some dropback passing early in the game to get the timing down in live action, I expect Michigan to just lean on the run to get this over with as quickly as possible, with full health being the main priority.

Pick: UTEP +35.5 (Play to +35)

I bet Rutgers last week against Boston College, and it was a painful experience with the Scarlet Knights turning the ball over six times (including fourth-down stops) in BC territory with their backup quarterback.

They also gave up free points on a failed fourth-down attempt in their own territory, in addition to a field goal to end the half due to some head-scratching prevent defense.

Ultimately, I thought they were the better team on a down-to-down basis, so I actually upgraded them slightly.

I still maintain the market downgraded Rutgers a little bit too much following its stunning loss to UMass to open the season. The team is very flawed and lacks talent once again on defense, but I don’t think it’ll turn the ball over four times every single game.

The Knights also have some talent on offense, led by one of the best wide receivers in the country in KJ Duff.

With or without Dylan Lonergan back from injury (I think he’ll play), Duff can make a couple of splash plays downfield to get Rutgers on the board to stay within this number. He’s a Ferrari outside of a broken-down shack.

I won’t waste any more of your time waxing poetic about lowly Rutgers.

This play is all about taking a number I make lower even though I was as high as anybody on USC coming into the season. It’s also a horrific situational spot traveling across the country (where USC has never fared well) with a massive game against Oregon on deck that may decide its eventual College Football Playoff fate.

As a result, I doubt the Trojans want to show much, and they will likely rest starters who are dealing with injuries (or pull them as soon as viable), including electric star freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley, who won’t suit up for this one.

USC’s going to its backups, especially on defense, appears to be a significant downgrade, as we’ve seen so far this season. That unit gave up 23 points to San Jose State in the fourth quarter to open the season and allowed a touchdown on each of the final two drives vs. Louisiana last week.

The backdoor could be wide open if needed.

Pick: Rutgers +24 (Play to +23)

Coming into the season, I thought Ohio would be way down due to a major downgrade at quarterback and receiver. After two games, I have not changed my tune.

And now, the Bobs may be down to a third-string freshman quarterback after the top two got hurt last week in a thrilling win over Jacksonville State.

Speaking of that game, Ohio got extremely fortunate and somehow pulled a rabbit out of its hat despite Jacksonville State (which missed a game-winning 38-yard field goal by a reliable kicker) holding a 447-262 yardage edge. It was the luckiest victory of the week, per my numbers.

Now, following a back-and-forth four-overtime affair (that came after a beating at Nebraska) in which a number of starters got banged up, the Bobs head down to Mobile for a nonconference game against South Alabama, which found itself on the opposite end of the spectrum last week.

In a four-point loss to Tulane, the Jaguars actually outgained the Green Wave, 478-424.

Senior quarterback Bishop Davenport played one of the best games of his collegiate career, throwing for nearly 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions while adding another 50 on the ground.

Behind an offensive line that has exceeded my preseason expectations through two games, he should have ample opportunities to exploit a vulnerable Ohio secondary in the quick passing game.

And if South Alabama jumps out to a lead, the Bobcats won’t have much recourse with a decimated offense (and super shaky kicking game).

This is a very tough spot for a beat-up Bobs team that certainly doesn’t play to the same level away from home.

Pick: South Alabama -4 (Play to -6.5)

I believe Western Michigan is still getting a bit too much respect for that effort against Michigan.

The Broncos deserve a ton of credit for that effort, but they simply played out of their minds on the defensive end, while Michigan appeared dazed and confused throughout.

Coming into the season, I had real concerns for their defense, which lost a ton of production from a dominant unit (in addition to a defensive coordinator who now runs the show for an NFL team).

Well, we saw some of those cracks last week against FCS Monmouth. Yes, WMU did cover in a 49-14 victory, but that final score was very misleading.

Believe it or not, Monmouth actually finished with more yards (431-414), but were done in by four failed fourth-down attempts and a -2 turnover margin.

Now, the Broncos head down to the extreme Houston heat for a nonconference bout against Rice one week prior to hosting Boise State in a massive game with G6 playoff implications.

This is a major flat spot in which the Broncos could easily get caught looking past the Owls.

More importantly, this is a matchup of two snails that rank in the bottom 10 nationally in pass rate and bottom three in seconds per play.

This will mirror an old service academy clash with an astronomically high run rate that keeps the clock moving rapidly throughout.

Plus, Rice quarterback Jacurri Brown has dropped back a grand total of 23 times through two starts.

In regard to this particular matchup, the Rice secondary has major holes, but that’s not as important against the run-heavy Broncos.

And while the scoreboard was ugly last week at Notre Dame in a 52-0 loss, the Owls’ run defense actually held up well, holding the Irish to just 118 rushing yards on 32 carries for an average of 3.7 yards per carry. That’s encouraging ahead of this matchup.

Don’t expect many possessions in this one, hence the low total of 44. That obviously makes the home underdog north of a touchdown more attractive. It won’t take much from the Rice offense to keep this close.

Pick: Rice +9.5 (Play to +8)

Note: I’m personally waiting to see if a +10 or better pops again before locking in.

This is a tough spot for Oklahoma following a deflating loss at Michigan, with a trip to Athens to take on Georgia next. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sooners came out a little bit flat against a New Mexico team that has bludgeoned its first two opponents.

Yes, the competition was weak, but the dominance can’t be questioned in a pair of victories by almost 100 points over Mercyhurst and Central Michigan, which barely combined for 300 total yards.

This is one of the most experienced and saltier Group of 6 defenses that won’t be intimidated by the stage or opponent.

Additionally, the Sooners have some major issues at the moment.

The running game hasn’t been fixed, which maybe isn’t too surprising since it’s very reliant on a Colorado State transfer to headline the backfield.

Quarterback John Mateer is the best option in that department, but I doubt Venables wants to unleash his legs against New Mexico any more than he has to prior to an SEC gauntlet.

Mateer also still has accuracy issues and can be a bit too careless with the rock at times, so don’t be surprised if the Lobos take one or two away.

The Sooners also continue to deal with offensive line issues, which haven’t helped the lackluster rushing attack. They’ll also be without one of their top receivers in Trell Harris, which will make life much easier for the Lobo secondary.

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images. Pictured: New Mexico head coach Jason Eck.

The Oklahoma defense is still one of the best in the country, but it appears to be a notch below last year’s unit and now will have to make do without stud linebacker Kip Lewis.

And regardless of what you think of this Sooners’ stop unit, the depth certainly isn’t as elite as 2025.

New Mexico obviously won’t have an easy time moving the ball, but I trust Jason Eck to draw up enough creative plays to put some points on the board.

In a game with a total sitting at 46.5 at the moment, it may only take 10 points to get to the window. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that New Mexico has elite special teams.

At a bare minimum, the Lobos will eat up the clock when they have possession, and they won’t operate with tempo.

They also have great depth at the quarterback position, so there won’t be a significant drop-off if the game gets out of hand. They could easily sneak in the backdoor if needed.

I think anything north of three touchdowns deserves a look in what should be a lower-scoring game and a potential flat spot for the Sooners.

This is also a very difficult offense to prepare for, and it’s possible Oklahoma spent a good chunk of this week prepping for its next two opponents in Georgia and Texas.

Pick: New Mexico +23.5 (Play to +21.5)

I’m really banking on a flat effort from the Longhorns here following a miraculous comeback against Ohio State with Tennessee on deck.

Texas comes into this game ranked No. 1 in the nation, but there have been some cracks on the defensive end.

In the opener against Texas State, the Bobs moved the ball pretty easily in the first half but just couldn’t finish drives, while Ohio State built a 20-point second-half lead in Austin before getting too conservative.

UTSA should be fired up for this one against in-state big brother.

Plus, it has a bevy of key starters who were on the team two years ago when it lost, 56-7, at Texas in Arch Manning’s first coming-out party when he went off after coming in for an injured Quinn Ewers.

I do worry about the tackles getting worked here against the Texas front, which would spell bad news for quarterback Owen McCown, who can really struggle under pressure.

The defense is also nothing to write home about, but this is a very experienced group with one of the better G6 coaches in a premier spot, so I’ll trust them to keep this within 30.

Pick: UTSA +30.5 (Play to +30)

Note: I’m personally waiting to see if a +31 pops before locking this in.

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