Kentucky Football broke ESPN’s FPI model in just one month

Kentucky Football broke ESPN’s FPI model in just one month

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Kentucky Football broke ESPN’s FPI model in just one month
Kentucky football breaks FPI

When Will Stein took over the Kentucky football program, the national media politely nodded, patted Big Blue Nation on the head, and immediately wrote off the 2026 season as a rebuilding year. I mean, years ago that was probably going to be the case. But the portal has changed things on the field, and I don’t think the computers have caught up.

If you want proof, you don’t have to look beyond the computers over at ESPN.

When the season kicked off, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ran its season simulations and spit out a disrespectful forecast for the Wildcats. The model had Kentucky favored in just three games. It viewed the Cats as a punching bag on a brutal SEC schedule; essentially, it predicted a miserable, bowl-less winter in Lexington.

Here is exactly how little faith ESPN’s FPI had in Kentucky after opening weekend:

  • Sept 5: Youngstown State: 95.0% chance to win (Result: 45-13 Win)
  • Sept 12: Alabama: 17.5% chance to win (Result: Loss)
  • Sept 19: Texas A&M: 10.5% chance to win (Result: 31-21 Win)
  • Sept 26: South Alabama: 90.6% chance to win (Result: 45-21 Win)
  • Oct 3: South Carolina: 25.5% chance to win (Result: 35-34 OT Win)
  • Oct 10: LSU: 18.5% chance to win
  • Oct 17: Oklahoma: 13.7% chance to win
  • Oct 24: Vanderbilt: 45.0% chance to win
  • Nov 7: Tennessee: 19.2% chance to win
  • Nov 14: Florida: 32.9% chance to win
  • Nov 21: Missouri: 24.6% chance to win
  • Nov 28: Louisville: 43.2% chance to win

Look closely at those numbers. Going into College Station, the FPI gave Kentucky just a 10.5 percent chance of upsetting Texas A&M. Two weeks later, the model gave them roughly a 1-in-4 shot at knocking off South Carolina in Columbia.

Will Stein’s squad didn’t just beat the odds. They beat the almighty algorithm.

Now sitting at 4-1 with two massive SEC road victories, the Wildcats have forced the FPI model to completely recalculate its priors. The same computer that essentially guaranteed a losing season has reversed course.

Following the overtime thriller in Columbia, ESPN’s FPI now projects Kentucky to finish with roughly seven wins (6.9-5.1). The model now gives the Cats a massive 84.3 percent chance to reach the six-win threshold and go bowling.

But here is where things get genuinely fun.

Because of the sheer mathematical weight of holding two SEC road wins in early October, the FPI is now acknowledging a scenario that would have gotten you laughed out of a room outside of Lexington in August. The model currently gives Kentucky an 8.5 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

How many of you would have taken a 4-1 record and an 8.5 percent chance at the CFP heading into a home night game against LSU? I know I would have signed up for that.

The computers told us this team was going to be a punching bag. Instead, Will Stein and his locker room have been dishing out the beatings.

Now, the rest of the SEC is realizing what the FPI just figured out: Kentucky is no longer the underdog story; they are a legitimate threat.

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