Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after second loss

Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after second loss

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Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after second loss

Two consecutive losses in Big Tne play have seemingly derailed Penn State's 2026 season out of the gates of the Big Ten season, but is the doom and gloom being exaggerated in the heat of the moment? Is there still a chance for a good record for Penn State at the end of the season that puts them on the radar for a spot in the College Football Playoff? It may be a reach but the updated metrics from ESPN may actiually look better overall this week than they did before the loss to Northwestern in Week 5.

Penn State's projected win percentage in each of its remaining games this season did drop this week, with the exception of one game. Despite the drops, Penn State is still the projected favorite in each of its remaining games this season according to the updated Football Power Index numbers from ESPN. The lone exception in these cases is the upcoming road game at Michigan, which is back up to a 50/50 coin flip between the Nittany Lions and Wolverines amid their respective woes.

Penn State is still being given a favorable winning percentage going into this week's home game against USC. Penn State's road game at Washington in early November continues to have a favorable winning percentage, although it did see the biggest drop in percentage points compared to a week ago. If the current win percentages play out, Penn State would be looking at a 9-3 or 10-2 record at the end of the regular season with the Michigan game the deciding factor.

Of course, Penn State also had favorable winning percentages in its favor going into its last two games against Wisconsin and Northwestern, so take these numbers for what they are.

Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game remaining in the 2026 regular season entering Week 6 against USC, with a look back at what the win percentage looked like a week ago.

Week 6 vs. USC

Sep 26, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) prepares to throws a pass against the Oregon Ducks during the fourth quarter at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Oct. 10
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 62.0% (was 65.3%)

Week 7 at Michigan

Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman R Mason Thomas (32) chases after Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Michigan Wolverines at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Oklahoma won 24-13.

  • Saturday, Oct. 17
  • Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
  • ESPN FPI: 50.0% (was 47.2%)

Week 9 vs. Purdue

Sep 20, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Purdue mascot Purdue Pete cheers against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Oct. 31
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 88.4% (was 93.1%)

Week 10 at Washington

The Washington Huskies take the field prior to the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Sept. 27, 2025.

  • Saturday, Nov. 7
  • Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
  • ESPN FPI: 63.6% (was 70.5%)

Week 11 vs. Minnesota

Iowa football travels to Minneapolis for an Oct. 24 game against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were 8-5 last season.

  • Saturday, Nov. 14
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 84.1% (was 88.6%)

Week 12 vs. Rutgers

Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights mascot Sir Henry during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Nov. 21
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 92.6% (was 93.3%)

Week 13 at Maryland

Dec 30, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; The Maryland Terrapins mascot Testudo dances before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

  • Saturday, Nov. 28
  • SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
  • ESPN FPI: 85.5% (was 87.1%)

Kevin McGuire is the lead writer for Nittany Lions Wire, part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow him on BlueSky, Threads or any of these other platforms.

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This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Updated ESPN FPI win percentages for Penn State after second loss

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