We ranked every undefeated team and predicted their first loss. One survived
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Fifteen FBS teams are still unbeaten heading into second weekend of October.
That number will be capped at 14 heading out of Saturday given the heavyweight bout between No. 2 Georgia and No. 7 Alabama. Another unbeaten, No. 22 UCLA, is an 11½-point underdog at No. 13 Oregon.
By December, there may be just one undefeated team still standing. Two teams have run the table in the regular season during the 12-team College Football Playoff era: Indiana last season and Oregon in 2024.
Or there may be zero. USA TODAY Sports ranks and evaluates the current 15 unbeatens to predict when each team will suffer its first loss — and comes up with just one team scheduled to head into the playoff unblemished.
1. Miami (No. 4, 5-0)
First loss: In the College Football Playoff
History says there’s an ugly loss brewing somewhere, since those have dotted virtually every year of Mario Cristobal’s Power Four career. Maybe things have changed down in Miami. If we pencil in a win at Notre Dame then that’s a perfect regular season, since there’s no one in the ACC who can hang with the Hurricanes.
2. Georgia (No. 2, 5-0)
First loss: at No. 7 Alabama, Saturday
The Bulldogs are slight underdogs against a rival that has taken 10 of the past 13 in the series, including two of three under coach Kalen DeBoer. Combined with the play of the Tide’s offense, this one-sided Alabama advantage points to Georgia’s first loss. On the other hand, the Bulldogs have absolutely decimated every opponent to date and could romp to an unbeaten regular season.
3. Notre Dame (No. 3, 5-0)
First loss: vs. No. 4 Miami, Nov. 7
There’s a challenging road trip to No. 8 BYU later this month, though the Cougars will need to improve to pull off an upset. Next month, the Fighting Irish welcome in Darian Mensah and Miami in one of the biggest games of the regular season. The Hurricanes are the only opponent on the schedule that can match Notre Dame’s talent level and might be the only team in the country with a better quarterback.
4. Texas (No. 1, 4-0)
First loss: vs. No. 11 Mississippi, Oct. 24
The loaded remaining schedule for the Longhorns: Oklahoma, No. 15 Florida, No. 11 Mississippi, No. 20 Mississippi State, at No. 16 Missouri, at No. 10 LSU, Arkansas and at Texas A&M. By year’s end, Texas will have played nine teams in the top 20 of this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll. The second of six ranked opponents in a row, the Rebels have the explosiveness to outscore an Arch Manning-led offense that hasn’t taken a step forward.
5. Alabama (No. 7, 5-0)
First loss: at No. 10 LSU, Nov. 7
Alabama can no longer just pencil in a win against No. 16 Tennessee. The trip to Neyland Stadium on Oct. 17 is hard to predict even as the Volunteers’ offense craters behind two unproven quarterbacks. Given how the Tide have looked, though, it’ll take an LSU offense with major firepower to hand them their first loss.
6. Indiana (No. 5, 5-0)
First loss: vs. No. 6 Ohio State, Nov. 17
Indiana gets Ohio State at home and did narrowly beat the Buckeyes in last year's Big Ten championship game before bulldozing through the playoff. The Hoosiers will be tested by Nebraska on Saturday if the Cornhuskers clean up their penalties, but the much more realistic first loss will come a week later to Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State.
7. BYU (No. 8, 4-0)
First loss: vs. No. 3 Notre Dame, Oct. 17
Four games against Utah Tech, Arizona, Colorado State and TCU have left BYU as one of the Power Four’s biggest enigmas. (Last weekend’s 17-10 win against the Horned Frogs didn’t help.) The Irish are operating on a different level and will be motivated to post a stylish road win against one of just three opponents ranked in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll.
8. Utah (No. 12, 4-0)
First loss: vs. No. 8 BYU, Nov. 7
BYU has won three in a row in the series, including once in Salt Lake City, after Utah took nine in a row from 2010-19. The Utes have looked like the best team in the Big 12 under new coach Morgan Scalley and have a good chance of remaining unbeaten through an October schedule of Kansas, Colorado, No. 19 Houston and Cincinnati.
9. Texas Tech (No. 9, 5-0)
First loss: at Oklahoma State, Nov. 14
Texas Tech hasn’t been impressive. But Arizona State just allowed 55 points to Baylor, so maybe the Sun Devils aren't the one. Cincinnati comes on the road, but almost no one would bet on the Bearcats scoring the upset. Getting Arizona and West Virginia at home helps. The Cowboys can’t match the Red Raiders up front but they do have an offense that has gotten better on a weekly basis after a loss to Tulsa in the opener.
10. Nebraska (5-0)
First loss: vs. No. 7 Indiana, Saturday
This is very clearly an improved team and by almost every measurement the best of the Matt Rhule era, even if the schedule to date ranks among the weakest in the Power Four. Considering the Hoosiers’ talent, coaching and error-free play, the Cornhuskers will need an A-level game to score the program’s biggest win in years.
11. UCLA (No. 22, 4-0)
First loss: at No. 13 Oregon, Saturday
The Bruins have been one of the best stories in the Power Four under new coach Bob Chesney. Beating Purdue and Maryland doesn’t mean UCLA is ready to win at Autzen Stadium, however. The Ducks are double-digit favorites even with backup Dylan Raiola potentially starting in place of an injured Dante Moore.
12. Duke (No. 23, 4-0)
First loss: at Georgia Tech, Saturday
Yeah, the Yellow Jackets lost to Colorado and Stanford in September. Now they’re going to take down Duke? This upset special banks on Tech making the most of the bye week and rebounding just in time to salvage hopes of reaching bowl eligibility.
13. Pitt (No. 24, 5-0)
First loss: at No. 4 Miami, Oct. 24
The Panthers are moving forward without starting quarterback Mason Heinstchel, a rising star in the ACC who will miss the rest of the year with an ACL injury. Holden Geriner got the job done against Virginia Tech and should keep the offense afloat against North Carolina and Boston College. But Miami’s going to roll at home.
14. James Madison (5-0)
First loss: at Appalachian State, Oct. 22
James Madison is heading toward another double-digit win season under the program’s third coach in four years. But back-to-back undefeated runs through conference play are so hard to pull off that a midweek trip to Appalachian State seems like a ripe spot for an upset.
15. North Dakota State (5-0)
First loss: at New Mexico, Oct. 24
The Bison’s unbeaten start in the Bowl Subdivision could end on Saturday at UNLV, especially after the up-and-down Rebels seemed to get on track last week against California. If not this weekend, the first loss will come later this month against the Lobos, the Mountain West favorite and one of the best teams in the Group of Six.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: We ranked every undefeated team and predicted their first loss. One survived
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