Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 5 results

The playoff odds are shifting after Week 5, especially in the Big 12. When the season started, Texas Tech was the favorite to win the conference and go to the playoffs. Now, BYU is the favorite to win the Big 12 and Utah is largely projected to make it as an at-large team.

ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released updated projections for the playoffs and every bowl game, as did USA TODAY Sports and CBS Sports. Like last week, CBS's projections largely differ from the rest. However, they all agree that the Red Raiders will play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. 

Here are their updated bowl projections after Week 5 of the college football season. Among the Big 12 teams, only Colorado, TCU and Kansas are not projected to make a bowl game by any analyst. ESPN analyst Kyle Bonagura was the only one who projected Iowa State to make a bowl game.

Colorado Buffaloes

USA Today projection: No projection

CBS projection: No projection

Bonagura projection: No projection

Schlabach projection: No projection

It is a shame how the season is going for the Colorado Buffaloes. Their season started promisingly with an upset victory over Georgia Tech and a dominant win over Weber State. But it has been all downhill since, with a blowout loss to Northwestern, a 10-point loss to Baylor, and a disappointing loss to Texas Tech after leading 7-3 at halftime. With how difficult the rest of their schedule is and their struggles on offense, it does not seem like they can win another four games to become bowl-eligible this season.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

USA Today projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC

CBS projection: Texas Bowl vs. Tennessee

Bonagura projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon

Schlabach projection: Alamo Bowl vs. UCLA

Texas Tech's decline in the projections seems to have less to do with them than with other teams. The Red Raiders are undefeated, including a win against Houston. They play only one more ranked team the rest of the regular season, and as long as they remain undefeated at season's end, they will be in the Big 12 title game.

UCF Knights

USA Today projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Florida State

CBS projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Kentucky

Bonagura projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army

Schlabach projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington

The Knights suffered their second loss of the season to Houston this past week, although it was a competitive game. They have a rough few games ahead against Oklahoma State, BYU, and Baylor, all of which are currently undefeated in conference play. But with three of their final four games against Kansas, Iowa State, and Colorado, they should reach six wins.

Baylor Bears

USA Today projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin

CBS projection: No projection

Bonagura projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri

Schlabach projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Oklahoma

With Baylor currently sitting at 4-1 and playing TCU and Kansas in their next two games, it seems highly likely that they will be bowl-eligible by the end of Week 7. The Bears are a talented team about a yard away from being 5-0, and it will be interesting to see how they play against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston at the end of the season. They probably won't compete for the Big 12 championship, but they should get a decent bowl game.

Arizona State Sun Devils

USA Today projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State

CBS projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. New Mexico

Bonagura projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State

Schlabach projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State

After their 55-19 loss to Baylor, it is hard to evaluate where this team is right now. They have a talented quarterback in Cutter Boley and an elite receiver in Reed Harris. But their defense has given up at least 48 points twice this season and still faces Texas Tech, BYU, and Oklahoma State. With a 2-2 record, they have an uphill battle to become bowl-eligible this season.

Houston Cougars

USA Today projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Duke

CBS projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Clemson

Bonagura projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Pittsburgh

Schlabach projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Virginia Tech

This is the only consensus among all of these analysts. Houston is 4-1, with their only loss coming against Texas Tech in a hard-fought battle. They also face difficult matchups against Oklahoma State and Utah. While those games will be crucial in determining which bowl game the Cougars will play in this season, they will certainly be in a bowl game.

BYU Cougars

USA Today projection: No. 7 seed in the CFP v. UCLA

CBS projection: Alamo Bowl vs. UCLA

Bonagura projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. Utah

Schlabach projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. Oregon

CBS was the only outlet to project that BYU will not make the playoffs; they have Utah making it instead. While BYU and Utah have played very well this season, the Cougars currently appear to be the better team, and most projections have them playing at home in the first round. Based on how the Big 12 teams have performed through the first five weeks, BYU is definitely the favorite to win the conference.

Kansas State Wildcats

USA Today projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M

CBS projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Nebraska

Bonagura projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M

Schlabach projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Penn State

Kansas State went on bye last week after suffering their first loss of the season to Cincinnati in Week 4. With a 3-1 record, they need three more wins to become bowl eligible. Avery Johnson is a talented quarterback who will probably lead the Wildcats to at least one surprising win. They won their only appearance in the Cactus Bowl back in 2017 and defeated Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl back in 2016.

Utah Utes

USA Today projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Indiana

CBS projection: No. 8 seed in the CFP vs. Oregon

Bonagura projection: No. 9 seed in the CFP vs. BYU

Schlabach projection: Holiday Bowl vs. Pittsburgh

Utah was not seen as a top contender in the Big 12 at the start of the season. However, after five weeks, including three wins by at least 33 points, the Utes have established themselves as one of the conference's most dominant teams. Their November matchup against BYU could preview the Big 12 conference championship.

Arizona Wildcats

USA Today projection: Holiday Bowl vs. Pittsburgh

CBS projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech

Bonagura projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech

Schlabach projection: Sun Bowl vs. Clemson

When Arizona took on Cincinnati, it looked like a close game on paper. However, the Wildcats quickly took control with 34 unanswered points; Cincinnati did not score until the final two minutes. This Arizona team is flying under the radar so far. It should be fun to watch them play Texas Tech on Halloween; it could be a surprising upset. The Wildcats will definitely find themselves in a bowl game this year.

Cincinnati Bearcats

USA Today projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Kentucky

CBS projection: Cure Bowl vs. Georgia State

Bonagura projection: First Responder Bowl vs. North Texas

Schlabach projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. New Mexico

Arizona may have just dismantled them, but they're still a very good team. They rely on their run game, with quarterback JC French and running back Gi'Bran Payne, and have a few games where they should be able to impose their will and win. The Bearcats will find themselves in a bowl game for the second year in a row.

West Virginia Mountaineers

USA Today projection: Independence Bowl vs. Liberty

CBS projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Connecticut

Bonagura projection: No projection

Schlabach projection: No projection

It will be close, but West Virginia still has a path to a bowl game after only four wins last season. The Mountaineers already have three wins, although it would have really helped their chances if they could have pulled off the win against Iowa State. They have to play TCU and Kansas, games they should win. However, to get to six wins, they will also need a win against Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Houston, or Utah, which will be difficult.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

USA Today projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Texas-San Antonio

CBS projection: Independence Bowl vs. Tulane

Bonagura projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan

Schlabach projection: Texas Bowl vs. Texas A&M

The consensus is that Oklahoma State will be in a bowl game, but which one is unclear. That first-week loss is irrelevant now, as quarterback Drew Mestemaker and the rest of the Cowboys have looked good ever since. Their last bowl game was in 2023 against Texas A&M, and they could meet again this year.

Iowa State Cyclones

USA Today projection: No projection

CBS projection: No projection

Bonagura projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington

Schlabach projection: No projection

Despite being at 3-2, it does not seem like the Cyclones are going to make a bowl game. They would have to win three more games, and their opponents are BYU, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF, and Kansas State. It is hard to imagine Iowa State coming away from three of these games with a win.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 5 results